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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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It has been a wacky start to the NFL season, with each week featuring one big upset after another.
This continued into this most recent Monday Night Football matchup, when the Commanders, as 7.5-point underdogs, went in to Cincinnati and took down Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
So, for this article, we are going to dive into our favorite NFL underdogs to target for Week 4.
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Buccaneers Moneyline (+120) DraftKings
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET
There are a lot of reasons to back the Bucs in this game. For starters, this has the makings of a get-right game for the Bucs and also a letdown for the Eagles.
The Bucs were riding high after a Week 2 victory over the Lions -- the same Lions, by the way, who bounced Tampa Bay from the playoffs last year. Unfortunately, the Bucs followed that up with a disaster of a performance at home against the Broncos, losing 26-7 in a lifeless showing.
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The Eagles, meanwhile, were reeling after an epic blown lead against the Falcons in Week 2, but bounced back in a major way with an impressive victory over the Saints in New Orleans in Week 3.
The NFL is an interesting week-to-week league, so this matchup features the perfect opportunity to fade recent results and back the Bucs to take down the Eagles.
Philadelphia is dealing with a ton of injuries to its most important non-QB offensive players and its top cornerback, and with a Week 5 bye looming, the guess here is that they are going to play it safe with these injuries:
- WR A.J. Brown has missed the past two weeks with a hamstring injury
- WR DeVonta Smith left early last week with a concussion
- LT Lane Johnson also left early with a concussion against the Saints
- CB Darius Slay missed the end of the Saints game with a knee injury
- Depth WR/punt returner Britain Covey is on IR with a shoulder injury that he suffered against the Saints.
This is a playoff rematch from last year, a game in which the Bucs completely dominated 32-9. The Eagles replaced both coordinators from that debacle (while keeping head coach Nick Sirianni), but the biggest issue with that Eagles offense was defending the big blitz (six-plus defenders rushing the passer), and that is still an unknown.
The Eagles have not been tested with heavy blitz packages much this year, but Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is known to be an aggressive blitzer, so we will need to see the Eagles pass that test offensively before believing they can do so.
The Bucs handle business as a home underdog this week.
Buccaneers Moneyline (+120): 0.50 Units
Rams Moneyline (+132) FanDuel
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
The Rams gutted out an impressive victory last week, beating the 49ers as 7-point underdogs. The Rams were missing starters along the OL, along with both starting WRs in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, but still managed to take down the defending NFC champs.
Granted, that victory did require some luck in the form of a missed field goal and a late dropped pass from the 49ers, and San Francisco was also dealing with some injuries of its own, but it was still an impressive win.
Now, the Rams have almost a complete opposite matchup against the 1-2 Bears, who have been unable to get anything going on offense. The Bears defense is good, but their offense has been a disaster through three weeks.
So far this year, the Bears have the worst offense in football, according to DVOA, with the 30th-ranked passing game and the 31st-ranked rushing game.
In Week 1, the Bears scored 24 points, but did not score a single offensive touchdown, and they finished that game with fewer than 150 total yards. Chicago followed that up with 13 points and only 205 total yards in Week 2, then scored 16 points in Week 3.
The biggest issue for the Bears offense is its OL, which is the worst offensive line in the NFL, according to DVOA, with the third-highest pressure rate.
The Rams have also had the third-hardest defensive schedule through three games, so playing the Bears is going to be a welcome sight. The Rams pull off another upset this week.
Rams Moneyline (+132): 0.50 Units
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