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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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Every Tuesday this NFL season, Newsweek sports betting writers Tyler Everett and Matt Modi are offering their early ATS takes on every game on the schedule.
The second half of the 2024 NFL season is upon us, and Week 10 starts off strong with a crucial AFC North showdown between the Bengals and Ravens on Thursday night. Four teams are on the bye this week: the Browns, Packers, Raiders and Seahawks.
A chalky Week 9 made for a decent showing by Everett (9-6) but a down week for Modi (5-10).
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Season records on early NFL ATS picks:
- Everett: 64-69-5
- Modi: 51-67-5*
*Modi sat out Week 7, hence the discrepancy in how many games these two have picked this year.
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Bengals at Ravens (-6) -- Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Bengals +6
The Ravens are on fire offensively, but the Bengals have found a groove on offense as well in recent weeks. I like Baltimore to squeeze out a win at home, I think, but Cincinnati will keep this game close.
Modi: Bengals +6
The Bengals played the Ravens tough the first time these two teams played, and one could make the argument that they should have won straight up. They keep this one close as well.
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Giants (-5) vs. Panthers -- Sunday, 9:30 a.m. (in Munich, Germany)
Everett: Panthers +5
Assuming Bryce Young's win over the Saints earned him at least one more start for the Panthers, I like Carolina to build on the first trace of positivity this franchise has glimpsed in a while against a Giants team that has lost four in a row.
Modi: Panthers +5
Neither of these teams inspire much confidence, so I'll take the team getting 5 points and move on.
Steelers at Commanders (-2.5) -- Sunday 1 p.m.
Everett: Commanders -2.5
This is a tough one to call, but give me Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' balanced offense to pull out another close one and improve to 7-2.
Modi: Commanders -2.5
I never thought this would happen in my lifetime, but this Commanders team is legit. Dan Quinn has fixed the defense, and Jayden Daniels has had an electric rookie season. They keep rolling against a Steelers team that is not as good as its record indicates.
Falcons (-3.5) at Saints -- Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Saints +3.5
The 6-3 Falcons are clearly the better football team. But the 2-7 Saints should get a boost from the coaching change this week, and I like the home crowd to help New Orleans cover in a rivalry where three of the last five matchups were decided by three points or less.
Modi: Saints +3.5
The Saints get the new head coach bump for a week, and not only do they cover the spread here, but they win outright.
Broncos at Chiefs (-9) -- Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Broncos +9
The 8-0 Chiefs just keep winning, but rarely by a wide margin (all but two of Kansas City's eight victories this year came by a touchdown or less). The Broncos are better than they looked in a blowout loss to Baltimore last Sunday, and they should be able to keep this game close.
Modi: Broncos +9
The Broncos just got blown out by the Ravens last week, but they have been one of the feistier teams over the course of the season. The Chiefs are undefeated but still don't have the habit of blowing teams out, so let's grab the Broncos getting over a touchdown ATS.
Patriots at Bears (-6.5) -- Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Patriots +6.5
There's too much wrong with the Bears right now to take them by a touchdown over anyone.
Modi: Patriots +6.5
Another game in which it is hard to trust either of these teams, so once again I'll take the team getting the points and move on.
Bills (-4) at Colts -- Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Bills -4
Indianapolis is a mess, and Josh Allen and the Bills are on a roll. Let's not overthink this one.
Modi: Bills -4
It was a tough first start for Joe Flacco after being named the Colts starting QB, and it won't get any easier against a good Bills team that is rolling.
Vikings (-4) at Jaguars -- Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Vikings -4
The havoc-wreaking Minnesota defense under Brian Flores is the last thing the volatile Jaguars offense wants to see right now. This one could be tight, but I'll take Minnesota to cover, barely.
Modi: Vikings -4
The Jaguars are in free fall, and, despite the final score showing a one-score loss, they were thoroughly dominated by the Eagles last week. The Vikings have hit somewhat of a rough patch since their scorching start, but they should be able to take care of business against the lowly Jags.
49ers (-6) at Buccaneers -- Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Buccaneers +6
With their backs against the wall, the 4-5 Bucs will keep this one close after last week's heartbreaking near-upset of the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
Modi: 49ers -6
The 49ers come out of the bye with a hopefully healthy Christian McCaffrey going up against a reeling Bucs team dealing with a ton of injuries. Give me the 49ers by 10-plus.
Titans at Chargers (-7.5) -- Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Chargers -7.5
L.A.'s stout defense + Justin Herbert = another comfortable victory against an overmatched opponent.
Modi: Chargers -7.5
The Titans are a mess, while these are not the Chargers of old under Jim Harbaugh. In previous years under previous regimes, this is the type of game the Chargers would lose in hilarious fashion, but not anymore. Take the Chargers laying the points.
Eagles (-7.5) at Cowboys -- Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Cowboys +7.5
The Cowboys' season is going down the drain, with Dak Prescott's hamstring injury last Sunday piling onto the misery. On paper, the Eagles should cruise. That's not typically how division rivalry clashes go, though, so let's get a little counter-intuitive and take Cooper Rush and the Boys to keep this game respectable.
Modi: Cowboys +7.5
The entire world is going to be on the Eagles here, with the Cowboys most likely missing both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, but the Eagles have shot themselves in the foot too many times this season to be trusted to cover such a large spread against a division rival.
Jets at Cardinals (-1) -- Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Jets +1
For the most part, trusting the Jets has been a bad idea this season, but there are enough pieces on this offense for N.Y. to upset a Cardinals team that has been one of the biggest surprises in the league.
Modi: Jets +1
It is hard to have any faith in the Jets doing something positive, but it is also hard to believe the Cardinals are capable of keeping up this winning streak.
Lions (-3) at Texans -- Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Everett: Lions -3
I'll start doubting the Lions when they give me a reason to.
Modi: Lions -3
If it were any other team, I would say this has the makings of a let-down game for the Lions against an AFC opponent, but that won't be the case in a primetime game against a good Texans team. The Lions are rolling, while I do not quite trust the Texans despite their record.
Dolphins at Rams (-2.5) -- Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Rams -2.5
Even when the Rams aren't at their best, Matthew Stafford makes it hard to doubt them. Don't look now, but the Rams -- who started the year at 1-4 -- have a real chance to get hot, as three of their next four opponents (the Dolphins, Patriots and Saints) each have just two wins.
Modi: Rams -2.5
The Rams have now won three straight, two of which were impressive against the Vikings and the Seahawks. With their two stud receivers back, the Rams keep on winning.
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