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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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According to the odds as of late July, both the NFL Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards promise to be competitive in 2024.
OPOY looks particularly wide-open, with Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb leading a deep field of contenders.
NFL DPOY, on the other hand, does feature a clear favorite in Cowboys LB Micah Parsons. After Parsons, Steelers OLB T.J. Watt, Browns DE Myles Garrett and 49ers DE Nick Bosa are also all considerably shorter than 10-to-1 across the board.
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Parsons, who just turned 25 back in May, finished second in DPOY voting as a rookie in 2021, second in 2022 and third in 2023. That makes his status as the favorite entering the upcoming season understandable, but it also makes reigning DPOY Garrett and Watt, the NFL's sack leader in three of the last four seasons, very tempting at longer odds.
2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
Below are the the top eight DPOY candidates -- Parsons, Watt, Garrett, Bosa, Raiders DE Maxx Crosby, Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson and Texans pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter -- and their odds at four top sportsbooks as of July 26.
2024 NFL DPOY Betting Analysis
Parsons is yet to win this award, but is coming off three straight brilliant seasons to start his career. He's favored ahead of the players who won this award in 2021 (Watt), 2022 (Bosa) and 2023 (Garrett). Also worth noting: the retirement this offseason of Rams DT Aaron Donald, who won the award in 2017, 2018 and 2020, only improves everyone else's chance at winning DPOY.
Parsons' sack totals -- 13 as a rookie in 2021, 13.5 in 2022 and 14 in 2023 -- have been more impressive than they look at first glance considering he gets fewer rush opportunities than the other top contenders for this award. That brings us to an interesting question:
Will the NFL sack leader be named DPOY in 2024?
Below are the players who led the league in sacks the past few seasons, with an * indicating that the player also was named DPOY:
- 2023 -- Watt (19 sacks)
- 2022 -- Bosa (18.5 sacks)*
- 2021 -- Watt (22.5 sacks)*
- 2020 -- Watt (15 sacks)
So, while leading the league in sacks certainly helps, DPOY is not all about that statistic.
Before assessing this year's candidates, keep in mind the voting results in recent years: although Watt has only won the award once, back in 2021, he finished a close second in the voting in both 2023 and 2020.
The only time in the last four years when Watt wasn't a major factor in the DPOY race was 2022, when a pectoral tear limited him to 10 games.
With that in mind, he offers excellent value as he enters his age-30 season for a Pittsburgh front seven that should once again be outstanding in 2024.
T.J. Watt Undervalued in 2024 DPOY Odds
Watt's preseason odds across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and bet365 are yet another great example of the importance of line-shopping.
DK listing him at the same odds as Parsons, who appears due to break through and take home this award, makes plenty of sense. But Watt at +750 at FanDuel (behind Parsons and Garrett) almost seems too good to be true, even though he is the oldest of the four and did miss significant time as recently as 2022.
DPOY Pros, Cons for Top Contenders
For this section, we'll skip over Watt, whose case has been made clear at this point, and focus on Parsons, Garrett, and Crosby
Micah Parsons 2024 NFL DPOY Betting Analysis
Pros: If Watt slips at all this year, Parsons looks poised to pounce on this award.
Cons: As mentioned earlier, this award isn't quite all about sacks, but Parsons will likely need a significant jump from the 13.5 he's averaged over his first three seasons.
Myles Garrett 2024 NFL DPOY Betting Analysis
Pros: The Browns' star put it all together a year ago, with 14 sacks and 17 tackles for loss, and he arguably plays both the run and the pass better than anyone in the league. Picking between Garrett and Watt is splitting hairs, but Garrett is an ascending player who managed to finish 10th in the 2023 MVP vote -- rarefied air for a defensive player.
Cons: DPOY is incredibly difficult to win multiple times, let alone in back-to-back seasons. The last player to do so in consecutive seasons was Donald (2017 and 2018), who is one of only eight players in league history to win this award multiple times. The only other multi-time DPOY winners since 2000 are J.J. Watt (2012, 2014, 2015) and Ray Lewis (2000, 2003).
Maxx Crosby 2024 NFL DPOY Betting Analysis
Pros: Crosby has played as well as any defensive player over the last few seasons. But he's hurt by the fact that as he leveled up (12.5 sacks, league-high 22 TFL in 2022; 14.5 sacks, league-best 23 TFL in 2023) the last two seasons, the Raiders had losing records both years.
Cons: Crosby's team is rarely playing from ahead, which doesn't help his volume of pass-rushing opportunities. He also needs someone opposite him to step up and prevent opposing offensive lines from double-teaming Crosby. One other thing working against Crosby, though it's no fault of his own: the winner of this award almost always comes from a playoff team, and the Raiders have reached the postseason just once in the last seven years.
2024 NFL DPOY Best Bet: T.J. Watt
Though it might only be a matter of time before Parsons takes home this award, Watt's consistent excellence rushing the passer -- he's posted 14.5 sacks or more in four of the last five seasons -- makes him the best bet based on the current prices.
Did we mention he's currently 7-to-1 or longer at both bet365 (+700) and FanDuel (+750)?
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