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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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Based on the odds entering the season, the battle for AP NFL Coach of the Year in 2024 could be as interesting as any of the Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year races.
The Chargers' Jim Harbaugh and the Bears' Matt Eberflus are the consensus co-favorites. Atlanta's Raheem Morris, Green Bay's Matt LaFleur, Houston's DeMeco Ryans, Arizona's Jonathan Gannon and Indianapolis' Shane Steichen are each 15-to-1 or shorter at most sportsbooks. In addition, the Jets' Robert Saleh leads a number of not-too-distant longshots.
2024 AP NFL Coach of the Year Odds
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It should come as no surprise that Harbaugh is among the favorites for this award. The former Michigan coach won after his first season with San Francisco in 2011.
Harbaugh's debut season with San Francisco saw him lead the 49ers from 6-10 the year before he arrived to 13-3. That year, his Niners came up just short of a Super Bowl appearance, losing the NFC Championship Game at home, 20-17 in overtime, to the Super Bowl XLVI-winning New York Giants.
The man with the second-shortest odds, Matt Eberflus, is entering his third season with the Chicago Bears. Chicago has the highest expectations for a team led by a rookie QB in recent memory following a strong finish in 2023. Last year's Bears finished just 7-10, but their 6-5 record over their final 11 games (including 4-2 in their last six), plus an exciting offseason headlined by top-10 draft picks Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze, has raised Chicago's expectations dramatically.
2024 AP NFL Coach of the Year Analysis
The recent history of this award offers some clues as to why the previously mentioned names have the shortest odds. LaFleur's Packers and Ryans' Texans reached the playoffs last season, but the Chargers, Bears, Falcons, Colts, Cardinals and Jets all failed to do so.
Three of the last five winners of this award (Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski in 2020 and 2023, and the Giants' Brian Daboll in 2022) led teams that improved substantially from the prior season to reach the playoffs. But Baltimore coach John Harbaugh (in 2019) and Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel (in 2021) showed that it's possible to win this award even while coaching a team coming off a successful year.
That would explain why oddsmakers are high on both LaFleur and Ryans, whose teams both won playoff games a year ago.
It will nevertheless be tough for anyone other than Harbaugh or Eberflus to win this award if either — or both — of L.A. and Chicago reach the playoffs after they won five and seven games, respectively, in 2023.
2024 AP NFL Coach of the Year Best Bet
Matt Eberflus, Bears - Best COY Odds: +1000 (FanDuel)
While the Chargers appeared to get worse on offense this offseason (more to come on that below), Chicago improved on that side of the ball as much as anyone in the league, at least on paper.
First-round picks Williams at QB and Odunze at WR were the splashiest additions. But Chicago also added talented veterans at WR (Keenan Allen), TE (Gerald Everett) and RB (D'Andre Swift) to complement WR D.J. Moore and RBs Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert. On the O-line, the continuity of a group that returns four starters (Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis) is a good indicator that this unit will at least be solid. Williams appears to be stepping into a much better situation than the typical No. 1 pick at QB.
Defensively, Chicago played as well as anyone down the stretch in 2023. CB Jaylon Johnson, LBs T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds and DE Montez Sweat led a D that allowed just 17.3 points per game over the final eight games of the season. Eberflus coordinated Chicago's defense for most of 2023 after DC Alan Williams was dismissed in 2023, and he's expected to do so again in 2024, with veteran defensive assistant Eric Washington coming over from Chicago as Williams' replacement.
The Bears play in a brutal division, but this roster could be one of the best in the NFC if Williams is anywhere near as pro-ready as he often looked at USC in 2022 and 2023. In fact, with odds as long as +3500 (DraftKings, FanDuel), Chicago is one of the more intriguing Super Bowl longshots entering 2024.
What to Expect from Harbaugh (Best Odds: +1000 at BetMGM)
Harbaugh and the Chargers will be one of the most interesting teams in the league. Generally speaking, franchises that are strong at head coach and QB are near-locks to make the playoffs. In Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, the Chargers have proven commodities in both of those crucial roles.
But beyond Herbert, who was limited to 13 starts in 2023 due to a late-season broken finger on his throwing hand, the Chargers' offense is riddled with question marks. Veterans Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett all left L.A. this offseason. Now, Herbert is surrounded by a running back tandem of former Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and a receiver room led by second-round rookie Ladd McConkey, fourth-year WR Joshua Palmer and journeyman WR D.J. Chark Jr.
L.A. likely improved its offensive line by taking OT Joe Alt at No. 5 in the 2024 NFL Draft. Along with Alt, the Chargers' O-line boasts another former top-10 pick, Rashawn Slater, at right tackle and 2022 first-rounder Zion Johnson at left guard. Collectively, L.A's young O-line (only center Bradley Bozeman has more than three years of experience) features plenty of promise, but the group will need to be outstanding given its unproven cast at the skill positions.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who ran Harbaugh's offenses in San Francisco from 2011-2014 and served as OC of the Ravens' run-heavy attack from 2019-22, will likely make this a run-first football team. If Dobbins stays healthy after injuries wrecked his time in Baltimore (he started just 10 games in four years), this could be an imposing unit. Herbert will need a strong ground game to succeed given the pass-catching targets on this roster, and that's no sure thing when taking into account Dobbins' injury history and Edwards' role as a complementary back in Baltimore the past five seasons.
Defensively, a unit that struggled a year ago faces a manageable schedule of opposing quarterbacks this year. L.A. has to face Patrick Mahomes (twice), Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, but it will also have a total of four games against the Broncos and Raiders, who both have questions at the position. It will help the Chargers that they face all four teams in the NFC South, which, collectively, is far from elite under center.
Harbaugh's pedigree is undeniable, but this year's team has too many holes to make him a good bet for Coach of the Year, especially at his current odds.
2024 AP NFL Coach of the Year Best Value Plays
DeMeco Ryans, Texans - Best COY Odds: +1400 (FD, BetMGM)
Ryans is coming off an outstanding head-coaching debut last season. He nearly took home AP Coach of the Year with 20 first-place votes, just one fewer than the winner, Kevin Stefanski.
The former linebacker leads a team featuring the 2023 Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year winners, QB C.J. Stroud and OLB Will Anderson Jr. And the Texans only got better this offseason, boosting the offense with WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon and adding one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL, Danielle Hunter, to complement Anderson. Houston should be even better than it was a year ago when it improved from 3-13 in 2022 to 10-7.
Ryans would not be the first Coach of the Year or MVP winner to capture the hardware a season after arguably deserving the honor.
Robert Saleh, Jets - Best COY Odds: +2500 (FanDuel)
Few teams boast a higher ceiling than the New York Jets, who have a legitimate chance to be above-average at two key positions where injuries had a devastating impact in 2023.
Obviously, Aaron Rodgers would represent a massive upgrade over what the Jets have had under center for the last two decades. That's no sure thing given last year's torn Achilles, but it's a real possibility, and if it happens, New York might have everything it needs to contend in the AFC.
The Jets invested in their offensive line heavily in the offseason, acquiring eight-time Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith and proven starters John Simpson and Morgan Moses, and drafting tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round.
Assuming Rodgers and the massive upgrades on the offensive line hold up, New York will likely be a playoff team.
Given the hype that would accompany a trip to the postseason, it would take a massively impressive showing for anyone else to beat Saleh for this award in this scenario.
That makes him the best value bet of anyone on the board, especially at +2500 at FanDuel.
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