NWS Weather Prediction Center
By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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New forecast models revealed that major Winter Storm Fern shifted its path slightly north overnight.
Uncertainty still remains about the storm's official track and level of severity, but meteorologists have started warning people about expected impacts from the storm, which will bring snow and ice from the Southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic region beginning on Thursday night. The storm is expected to hit the Southern Plains first, bringing snowfall and ice to Texas and Oklahoma before marching eastward through the U.S. South, Southeast and up into the Mid-Atlantic by later in the weekend.
Weather experts have warned it will be the most impactful winter storm so far this season. As many as 150 million people might be impacted, AccuWeather reported.
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Earlier this week, the storm's path took a more southerly track, but updated models show the storm shifting north.
NWS Weather Prediction Center senior meteorologist Brian Hurley told Newsweek that the storm shifted its path north because of the interaction between short waves in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Two separate short waves are interacting, with some forecast models anticipating they will merge sooner than later. When that happens, Hurley explained that the winds become more southwesterly instead of westerly, allowing for the storm track to shift north.
Hurley said it looks as though the path appears to be settling, but it could still change. Given the northerly jog it made, impacts are now expected in Boston and New York City.
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"Many of the models shifted north last night but the overall story remains the same, a particularly dangerous winter storm is on the way & we still don't know the fine details. The time to prepare is now," weather account @ryahnhallyall posted on X on Wednesday morning with screenshots of the new models.
The images in Hall's post showed the worst snow impacts shifting, stretching from Oklahoma through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. On the southern side of storm's track, freezing rain will accumulate, with the worst impacts expected from southern Arkansas through northwestern Mississippi and into western Tennessee, as well as across the Carolinas.
The NWS Weather Prediction Center also noted the path change.
"Guidance for the Major Winter Storm shifted north a little overnight, further expanding the areas forecast to be impacted Friday through this weekend. Here are the latest Key Messages," NWS Weather Prediction Center posted on X.
Despite the slight change in the storm's path, the NWS Weather Prediction Center stressed that the official forecast is still unclear.
"Confidence is high that a significant storm will occur, but not on specific details for the storm track, timing, and precipitation amounts," the message said. "Start preparations now for an impactful and prolonged winter storm and keep up to date with the forecast."
Widespread winter weather alerts have already been issued, and NWS meteorologists are expected to issue more as the storm gets closer. People were warned of long-lasting, widespread power outages and treacherous travel conditions.
"Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution," NWS Shreveport, Louisiana, said in a winter storm watch. "Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded."
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