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By Andrew Stanton
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A new McLaughlin poll shows shifts in a possible 2028 Democratic primary, with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ early lead tightening and California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez gaining support as potential candidates weigh whether to jump into the race.
The 2028 presidential field could begin coming into view in the months ahead with candidates potentially announcing their campaigns as early as next year after the midterms. On the Democratic side, prospective candidates are already testing their messages and heading to key primary states to build up their name recognition and make inroads with voters.
Early polls are not always predictive of final outcomes, but they do have major implications for candidates. Donors and voters use polls to gauge whether a candidate is viable, so the numbers matter to a candidate's ability to fundraise and garner media attention. They also measure initial name recognition among potential candidates.
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Newsweek reached out to leading candidates in the new poll for comment via email.
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Kamala Harris’ Lead Narrows in Democratic Primary Poll
In the poll that was released this week, Harris is in front—but her lead has narrowed, with other candidates like Newsom and New York's Ocasio-Cortez seeing increases in their support.
Harris’ support stood at 26 percent in the poll, while 16 percent of respondents said they would vote for Newsom and 9 percent for Ocasio-Cortez. Eight percent said they would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Support for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro stood at 5 percent each. Three percent said they would vote for Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, while Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer received 2 percent each, according to the poll.
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel received 1 percent support, while 17 percent were still undecided, the poll found.
The poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from June 17-23.
Notably, some potential 2028 candidates including Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear were not included in the polling.
How Does That Compare to Past Polls?
In June 2025, a McLaughlin poll showed that 30 percent of Democrats planned to vote for Harris, 8 percent for Newsom, 10 percent for Buttigieg and 7 percent for Ocasio-Cortez and Booker. Shapiro and Whitmer saw 3 percent in that poll, while Pritzker and Moore’s support stood at 1 percent.
The following chart shows how candidates’ chances have shifted in each of the surveys from McLaughlin, a Republican-leaning pollster.
What Do Other Pollsters Show?
A recent poll from AtlasIntel found Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressive Democrats, leading among a crowded field of potential candidates, with 26 percent of respondents saying they would vote for her in the primary.
Buttigieg followed with 22.4 percent, while Newsom received 21.2 percent of support in the poll. Harris received the backing of 12.9 percent of respondents. No other candidates received double-digit support in the poll, which surveyed 2,069 U.S. adults from May 4-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
A Harvard/Harris poll released in April showed Harris with support from 50 percent of Democrats in the primary race, up from 41 percent in March and 39 percent in January and February.
Newsom followed Harris with 22 percent support, while Shapiro received 9 percent. Ocasio-Cortez received 8 percent, while Pritzker received 6 percent. Five percent said they would vote for someone else.
The poll surveyed 2,745 registered voters April 23-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Newsom is favored in prediction markets, and his chances increased after he said the Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating him earlier in June. As of Friday, he had a 24 percent chance of winning the nomination on Kalshi, while his chances stood at 21 percent on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Who Is Running for President? What Other 2028 Contenders Have Said
Some 2028 Democrats haven’t ruled out running. Harris, who has traveled to states like Michigan and South Carolina in recent months, suggested she could run again without making a formal announcement.
“I might. I am thinking about it,” she told Reverend Al Sharpton in April after he asked whether she planned to run for president in 2028 during the National Action Network’s annual convention. Harris noted she “served for four years being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States.”
“I spent countless hours in my West Wing office footsteps away from the Oval Office. I spent countless hours in the Oval Office and the Situation Room. I know what the job is, and I know what it requires,” she said.
Newsom discussed the possibility of running in a June 2025 interview with The Wall Street Journal.
“I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold,” he said.
Ocasio-Cortez addressed presidential speculation in a conversation with David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, earlier in May.
"My ambition is to change this country,” she said. “Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers' rights are forever, women's rights, all of that, and so anyways...to a finer point to your question is that when you aren't attached, when you haven't been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, it is tremendously liberating."
Others have indicated they do not plan to run.
“There will be a robust group of people running for president,” Whitmer told Detroit news station WJBK in May. “I will not be one of them in 2028. I can tell you that.”
What Happens Next
Future polls will be closely watched to determine how the DOJ investigation impacts Newsom's standing among primary voters. Candidates are likely to begin announcing campaigns in early 2027.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.
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