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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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New Jersey Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr.'s chances of winning November's general election have declined amid the politician's prolonged and unexplained medical absence.
According to recent prediction market data and election forecasters, Kean’s previously narrow advantage in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District has eroded, with the race now widely considered a toss-up.
Kean has missed more than 100 votes in Congress having made his last public appearance on March 5. In an April statement, Kean said on X that he was addressing "a personal medical issue."
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For the seat's Tuesday primary, Kean is running unopposed for the Republican nomination, On the Democratic side, there are multiple candidates for a seat the party hopes to flip.
Newsweek reached out to Kean's campaign by email outside of normal business hours.
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Polls and Betting Odds
According to prediction market platform Polymarket, the Democratic Party has a 75 percent chance of winning the seat, while the GOP carries odds of 14 percent.
A week before March 5, the date of Kean's last public appearance, on February 26, the Republican Party. i.e. Kean, had odds 46 percent winning the seat against 43 percent for the Democratic Party, though this would vary wildly.
On March 5 itself, the Democratic Party had odds of 55 percent of electoral success and the Republican Party near the mid-40s, suggesting.
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?
Yes 75% · No 25%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Another betting platform, Kalshi, puts Democratic chances at around 78 percent, with Republicans at 22 percent as Tuesday midday. In early March, those odds were closer to 59 percent for Democrats and roughly 46 percent for Republicans, reflecting a similar decline for Kean.
Four Democrats Are Running in Tuesday's Primary
Four Democrats are running in the primary, former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, businessman Brian Varela and ICU doctor Tina Shah.
An internal poll commissioned by the 314 Action Fund, a group backing Shah, found she would narrowly defeat Kean in a hypothetical general election matchup, leading 46 percent to 43 percent among surveyed voters.
After respondents were given additional positive information about both candidates, Shah’s advantage widened to 49 percent to 43 percent. The survey was conducted May 24–26. The margin of error was not publicly disclosed.
Nonpartisan election analysts have indicated the race would be tight even before Kean, with the Cook Political Report moving the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up,” in November 2025, underlining how competitive the district has become.
Why Is Kean Missing From Congress?
Kean office has said he has a “personal health matter,” with no clear timeline for his return, while challengers have said constituents deserve more information.
On March 5, Kean cast his most recent vote in the House of Representatives in support of the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act.
Congress then recessed for a week, but Kean did not return when the House reconvened on March 16.
The New Jersey congressman said in a statement to his X account April 27: "I want to thank my constituents and colleagues for their patience as I address a personal medical issue. My doctors continue to assure me that my recovery will be complete and that I will be back to the job I love very soon. I expect to return to a full schedule and be at 100 percent."
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, told New Jersey Spotlight News he had spoken to Kean on the phone on April 23.
"He is attending to a personal health matter and expects to be back to 100% very soon. Tom is one of the most dedicated and hardest working members of Congress, and I am grateful for all he does and will continue to do to serve New Jerseyans and our country," he told the publication.
Democratic candidates have seized on Kean’s absence as a central campaign issue, arguing it raises questions about representation in the district.
Democrats Eye Chance to Flip Key New Jersey Seat
New Jersey's 7th Congressional District—a large area across the northern and central part of the state that includes Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster—and his seat is among the most competitive in the country. President Donald Trump narrowly carried the district, by 1 point, in the 2024 election
The district has seesawed between Republicans and Democrats the last two midterm elections. The GOP's Leonard Lance lost to Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2018. And the latter lost to Kean in 2022. The district was redrawn after the most recent census in 2021 to become more favorable to Republicans.
After the June 2 primary, the general election takes place on November 3, 2026.
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