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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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A new hurricane forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) stresses the need for Americans to prepare for this year's hurricane season, as the U.S. coastline has an above-average chance of seeing at least one major hurricane make landfall this year.
The updated forecast was issued nearly two weeks after the Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and mirrors the university's first forecast of the year issued in April.
Newsweek reached out to CSU by email for comment.
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Why It Matters
Last year, the number of hurricanes that formed during the Atlantic hurricane season was above average. There were 18 named storms, with 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. A major hurricane occurs when hurricanes are classified as Category 3 or higher.
This year's Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1. So far, no tropical storms or hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin.
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What To Know
Earlier this spring, CSU meteorologists issued their first Atlantic hurricane forecast of the year. At that time, they were anticipating 17 named storms, with nine strengthening into hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The forecast falls within the ranges shared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast in May.
The updated forecast from CSU revealed there is a 51 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline this season. The chances drop to 26 percent for the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and 33 percent for the Gulf Coast, including the Florida panhandle.
"The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above its long-period average," the forecast said.
The chance of a higher-than-average hurricane season was credited to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific and slightly warmer sea surface temperatures than is normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
"A warmer-than-normal Atlantic combined with ENSO neutral conditions typically favors an active Atlantic hurricane season via dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are conducive for developing hurricanes," the forecast said.
The Eastern Pacific season, which began on May 15, has produced three named storms, including one hurricane.
What People Are Saying
CSU's updated forecast: "Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
National Hurricane Center (NHC) in a forecast for the Atlantic: "For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days."
What Happens Next
Should a disturbance form in the Atlantic, the NHC will begin to issue updates about its path and strength.
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