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By Joshua Rhett Miller
Senior Reporter
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The decision by investigators to withhold purported ransom notes in the ongoing search for Nancy Guthrie is puzzling, one former FBI agent told Newsweek.
Andrew Bringuel, a retired FBI agent who runs a private security consulting firm in New York, said a cooperating witness likely represents the "greatest chance" for detectives to identify and arrest those responsible for the disappearance of the 84-year-old Arizona woman who is the mother of Today co-host Savannah Guthrie.
"Because in this case there are limited pieces of information available to public, it makes it more difficult, but not impossible to find a cooperating witness," Bringuel told Newsweek. "The police have released the video and will continue to elicit cooperation from the public. These cases are solved when the subject makes a mistake."
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The release of a surveillance footage showing a masked man outside Guthrie's home in Tucson prior to her disappearance led to a surge in tips from the public, but authorities have yet to publicly identify a suspect or vehicles possibly linked to the crime. Unverified ransom notes have also been received by authorities, including several sent to local and national news outlets, but the contents have not been widely disseminated, Bringuel said.
"I am curious why the police have not released the communications between the 'subject(s)' and the media/police," the former FBI supervisory special agent said. "This may be to protect the integrity of the case, it may be because they do not believe they are legitimate, it may be to protect the victim, or some other strategic reason."
Bringuel noted that Theodore Kaczynski, also known as the "Unabomber," was identified and arrested in April 1996 after his 35,000-word manifesto had been published in September 1995, leading a relative to inform authorities about his lone wolf terrorism campaign that killed three Americans and injured nearly two dozen others.
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Tyler Robinson, 22, who is accused of assassinating conservative influencer Charlie Kirk in September, was also captured by authorities after investigators released video footage showing him jumping from the rooftop of a building after the shooting. Robinson left behind a gun and ammunition near Utah Valley University, where trace evidence culled from the scene included shoe impressions, a forearm print and a palm print, FBI officials said at the time.
"If the communications sent to the media contain slang or unique language, perhaps someone in the public could help," Bringuel said.
FBI agents have undoubtedly analyzed the language used in the previous communications to "further assess behavior," but Bringuel releasing some or all of the missives could lead to a break in the investigation, which is in its second month.
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"In short, there are several teams looking at multiple parts of this case including agents/police engaging with known confidential sources to exploit their intelligence base, agents and analysts running down the identified items from the videos, forensics on any biological or digital trace evidence," he said.
Bringuel said Guthrie's case reminds him of the 1991 kidnapping of Carrie Lawson, an Alabama attorney whose body has never been recovered.
"In that case and perhaps this one, it began as a traditional kidnapping for ransom," he said. "These are very rare in the U.S. as most kidnappings are parental or drug deals that have gone bad. Kidnappings by strangers that involve child and adults for ransom, murder or keeping the child [are] less than 100 per year."
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Authorities identified Jerry Bland, 49, as the suspect in the kidnapping of Lawson, 25, after releasing a recorded ransom demand that prompted a relative to call police, Bringuel said.
"The case was solved, but not before he killed Carrie, disposed of her body and committed suicide," he said. "I was a very young FBI agent and that case still haunts me as her murder was on the day of my oldest daughter's birth. Two points: the greatest chance of solving this case is a cooperating witness, and the longer this case goes, the greater chance that the victim has succumbed to her injuries or health and has been murdered."
Bland's cousin, Karen Lancaster McPherson, was later sentenced to life in prison for her role in Lawson's kidnapping. The 63-year-old woman briefly escaped a work release program last year but was quickly recaptured, AL.com reported.
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"The tips are critically important, as the public and other police officers act as a force multiplier," Bringuel added. "Keeping the public engaged is a critical asset to investigators."
The Pima County Sheriff's Department referred inquiries regarding ransom notes in the Guthrie investigation to the FBI, which was contacted by Newsweek for comment on Monday.
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said last week that investigators were "definitely getting closer" to identifying a suspect, a declaration Bringuel believes had a specific intent.
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"The sheriff has to keep a positive spin to keep the public engaged when distractions in the news cycle abound," Bringuel said. "From war, national politics and local news, the kidnapping of an elderly woman—no matter how famous her daughter may be—may not be on the cable news cycle unless a 'major' break is anticipated. It is also possible that forensic evidence found at the scene or ancestorial DNA which requires some detective work outside the science may provide some leads. I do believe that this case will be solved and the subject identified, most likely with the public's help."
Jennifer Doebler, a former FBI intelligence analyst, has also criticized Nanos for the claim, telling Newsweek last week that the "nebulous update" had been atypical for law enforcement officials.
Bringuel, meanwhile, said the masked man spotted outside Guthrie's home appears to be a burglar but "not a particularly professional" criminal.
"The way he walked to the home suggests to me that he wasn't exactly sure where the camera was located until he got to the porch. He even walked with his head bowed down," Bringuel said. "He identifies where it is but then has to fetch a piece of brush to conceal it before dismantling it."
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The suspect had a backpack presumably to steal valuables or hold instruments to bound his victim, Bringuel said.
"Without knowing if anything of [value] was indeed stolen, my opinion is the subject's intent was to kidnap Mrs. Guthrie but something went wrong, violence took place, and she was injured but not killed," he said. "If his intent was to murder her, he could have done so with the weapon on his person. He clearly wasn't against the use of violence as the evidence suggests he caused an injury to Mrs. Guthrie."
The suspected kidnapping is likely not the suspect's first criminal act because of the preparations he took, albeit imperfect ones, Bringuel said.
"I think he underestimated Mrs. Guthrie," the former FBI agent surmised. "And if she resisted, he hurt her—how badly in her compromised state may have led to tragic consequences the subject didn't plan."
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