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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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As always, Tuesdays feature a full MLB betting slate, with 15-games to dive into.
Yesterday was good to us, as we were able to get Kyle Schwarber to come through with a home run. So, let's hope to keep it rolling with our favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, September 10.
Anthony Santander Home Run (+390) FanDuel
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
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After an absurd run from June through the middle of August, Santander had been somewhat slumping over the past couple weeks. Heading into yesterday, he had only hit one home run in his last 14 games.
Of course, before that, he had hit an absolutely absurd 29 home runs from June 1 to August 23, so a minor cold spell was to be expected after that kind of home run barrage. For context, he was tied with Aaron Judge with the most home runs in the MLB during that stretch, with three more than Shohei Ohtani, who had the second-most.
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So, all that being said, the hope here is that the home run Santander hit yesterday is a sign that he is coming out of that slump and about to go on another home run binge. There are no concerns with backing him to go yard in back-to-back games, as that is something he has done six separate times this season.
The biggest reason we are on Santander, though, is the pitching matchup, which is about as juicy as it gets. Kutter Crawford is pitching for the Red Sox, and he has been a home run machine in the last two months.
Over the last two months, Crawford has a HR/9 of 3.33 against left-handed hitters, giving up a home run every 10.40 at-bats, while allowing a 12.50% barrel rate and 41.25% HardHit rate.
The issue with Crawford is that he allows the second-highest fly-ball rate against LHH (54.7%), while Santander is one of the better batters at putting the ball in the air. His fly-ball rate of 56.7% is the highest in the MLB.
Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+425) Bet365
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Since the Orioles have such a good pitching matchup against Crawford, it felt like the right thing to do to back two Baltimore hitters today.
Henderson was on our list yesterday, and despite not hitting a home run, he did hit a 387-foot double that was 104.7 mph off the bat. He also hit a 394-foot flyout on Saturday, which was 100.9 mph off the bat but was robbed of a home run by the center fielder.
So, even though he has not hit a home run in the past couple games, he has still been smashing the ball, which suggests that he is close to hitting one yard. In the last seven days, he has seven HardHit line-drive + fly-balls (tied for fifth-most) and four balls launched (tied for second-most).
As detailed earlier, Henderson has a great matchup against a pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs to left-handed hitters. Henderson also has great stats against the pitch-mix of Crawford.
Crawford mostly throws 4-seam fastballs (38% of the time) and cutters (32% of the time), two pitches that Henderson has crushed. The last six times he has made contact with one of these pitches, it has left his bat at 98 mph or faster, including five at 100-plus mph. All six are detailed below:
- 100.9 mph, 394-foot flyout (4-seamer)
- 104 mph off the bat (4-seamer)
- 102.6 mph off the bat (4-seamer)
- 108.3 mph, 402-foot home run (cutter)
- 98.2 mph off the bat (cutter)
- 108.2 mph, 397-foot home run (4-seamer)
After bad luck the past couple days, Henderson hits one out of the park tonight.
Jackson Merrill Home Run (+600) FanDuel
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET
Merrill has been somewhat of an MVP for us recently, as it feels like more often than not when we go with him to hit a home run, he comes through. Let's hope that continues tonight.
The Padres had the day off yesterday, so the last time we saw Merrill on a baseball field was Sunday, September 8, and naturally, he went yard in that game. That gives him a total of seven home runs since August 7, which is tied for the third-most in MLB in that stretch.
He has been on fire for over a month now, and there are no signs that he is slowing down, as he has hit four home runs off right-handed pitching in the last two weeks, and two in the last seven days.
As for the pitching matchup, he is going up against George Kirby of the Mariners. Kirby is not quite as vulnerable as Crawford, but he is nobody to be scared of, either, especially against a left-handed hitter such as Merrill.
Kirby has allowed 20 home runs this year, 12 of which have come against left-handed hitters, even though he has faced more righties (372 at-bats) than lefties (317). Kirby's HR/9 against LHH specifically is 1.47, which is a slightly below-average number.
The top three pitches Merrill will see are 4-seam fastballs (31.5% of the time), sliders (24%) and splitters (17%). While Merrill has not seen a ton of these pitches over the past week, he has three separate hits above 100 mph, all of which traveled 370-plus feet.
- 101.6 mph, 372-foot flyout (4-seamer)
- 101.8 mph, 372-foot home run (4-seamer)
- 105 mph, 377-foot double (splitter)
Merrill stays hot and goes yard for us tonight.
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