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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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We might only have five MLB games being played today, but that did not stop us from finding our favorite MLB player props to bet on. As always, we will be diving into the MLB home run betting market, with our three favorite predictions below.
Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+310) FanDuel
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
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While Ozuna did not come through with a home run yesterday, and in general had a forgettable, 0-for-5 afternoon at the plate, he has been such a good home hitter this year that we are still comfortable going right back to him today. On the year, he has hit the third-most home runs with 31, only one behind league leader Shohei Ohtani. He has the seventh-best ISO rate in MLB at .283 and the fifth-best barrel rate at 18.2%.
Ozuna was also on fire in the month of July. He hit 10 home runs last month, with an ISO rate of .333 and a barrel rate of 18.2%. His HardHit rate was 59.1% and his average exit velocity was 92.7, both of which would be among the best in the league if extrapolated out to the entire season. As for the pitching matchup, he should have the advantage against Max Meyer of the Marlins.
Meyer is a young pitcher who has only made four starts and pitched 21 innings this year, but he has been lit up in those starts, allowing a barrel rate of 13.8%, which would by far be the worst in MLB of qualified pitchers. Meyer also pitched in MLB in 2022 and got smacked around then as well, allowing a barrel rate of 16.7%.
It certainly does not help that Meyer throws a slider over 45% of the time, and Ozuna absolutely crushes sliders with an ISO rate of .394. Meyer also throws a fastball almost 40% of the time, and Ozuna hits fastballs very well too.
Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+350) BetRivers
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians, 6:40 p.m. ET
Santander was one of the best home run hitters in all of baseball in July, hitting a total of nine home runs, tied for fourth-most in MLB. His ISO rate in that stretch was .323, the ninth-highest in July, and his barrel rate was 13.8% (19th-highest). Thanks to this hot streak, he has now surpassed his teammate Gunnar Henderson with 31 home runs, tying him with Marcell Ozuna with the third-most in the MLB.
Santander he has a great opportunity to mash one today going up against Ben Lively of the Guardians. Lively is a right-handed pitcher, and Santander is slightly better against RHP. His ISO rate against RHP is .289 (up from .277 against LHP), and his slugging, OPS and wOBA are all slightly higher against RHP as well. His fly-ball rate specifically against righties is 57.7%, which would be the highest in MLB.
Lively, meanwhile, has an issue allowing batters to put the ball in the air, as he allows a fly-ball rate of 44.5%, which would be the 13th-highest in MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. His two most common pitches thrown are sinkers and 4-seam fastballs, and Santander has an ISO rate of .286 against the former and .283 against the latter.
Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+430) FanDuel
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians, 6:40 p.m. ET
For our third and final pick of the evening, we are staying in the Orioles-Guardians game and taking a player on the Guardians. Ramirez is similar to the other two players we have today in that he has been a great home run hitter this season in a good matchup. On the year, he has hit 27 home runs, tied with Juan Soto for the sixth-most in MLB, and he also boasts the 11th-best ISO rate at .256.
He is similar to Santander in that his ability to put the ball in the air is the biggest reason he has been able to hit so many home runs. Ramirez has the 10th-highest fly-ball rate in MLB at 48% and the 16th-best launch angle at 18.8 degrees. As for today, he is going up against left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers, who was just traded over to the Orioles, and Ramirez is significantly better against lefties.
His ISO rate against RHP is .213 and jumps all the way up to .352 against LHP. The pitch-mix for Rogers also lines up well with the types of pitches that Ramirez hits for power. Rogers throws a 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, a sinker 23.4% of the time and a changeup 23% of the time, making up 80% of his entire pitch arsenal. Ramirez has an ISO rate of .308 against 4-seamers, .239 against sinkers, and .282 against changeups.
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