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By Andrew Stanton
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A new poll of Michigan's 2026 Senate race pointed to a close race in the battleground state, viewed by Republicans as one of the best flip opportunities of the midterms.
A spokesperson for Representative Haley Stevens, one of the Democratic candidates, told Newsweek the poll is good news for her campaign.
"This is the latest poll that shows Haley Stevens is the candidate who will win in November because she has spent her life fighting and winning for the people of Michigan," spokesperson Reeves Oyster said in a statement.
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Why It Matters
Democratic Senator Gary Peters' retirement in Michigan left an open Senate seat. It will likely become one of the most competitive—and expensive—races of the midterms, as the Great Lakes State has emerged as one of the closest battlegrounds over the past decade.
Democrats are increasingly optimistic about a favorable national environment, particularly after the passage of President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" last week, and the party in the White House historically loses seats in the midterms. But Republicans are eyeing Michigan's Senate seat as a potential flip opportunity next year, as Trump narrowly carried the state last November.
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What To Know
The poll, conducted by Normington Petts, measured support for former GOP Representative Mike Rogers against two Democratic candidates, Stevens and state Senator Mallory McMorrow. Both matchups were close.
Rogers led McMorrow on an uninformed ballot by about 4 percentage points (48 percent to 44 percent), but when voters were told more information about each candidate, McMorrow led by 4 points (51 percent to 47 percent).
On the other hand, Stevens led Rogers by about 2 points (47 percent to 45 percent), but by only a single point on the informed ballot (49 percent to 48 percent), according to the poll.
Ahead of the Democratic primary next year, Stevens benefits from having higher name recognition than McMorrow. While 34 percent of respondents said they have heard of Stevens, while only 22 percent have heard of McMorrow, according to the survey.
The poll report noted that the most effective attack against Stevens was that she voted with former President Joe Biden more than 90 percent of the time in Congress, and that would be an "an inevitable line of attack from Rogers and his allies." It said that McMorrow, as a state lawmaker, does not have that vulnerability, though she did support the former administration and spoke at the Democratic National Convention in support of former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The poll surveyed 700 likely voters from June 12-16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The poll did not ask about Abdul El-Sayed, who is also running on the Democratic side.
A survey conducted by the Glengariff Group and the Detroit Regional Chamber similarly pointed to a close race. It found Stevens leading Rogers by 6 points (48.8 percent to 42.8 percent), while McMorrow led Rogers by less than than 2 points (45.5 percent to 44.1 percent). The poll surveyed 600 registered voters from May 5-8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.
Rogers ran for U.S. Senate against Democrat Elissa Slotkin in November but lost despite Trump carrying the state. Stevens was first elected to a Detroit swing district in the 2018 midterms, while McMorrow rose to national prominence in 2022 after a speech she made defending the LGBTQ+ community went viral.
What People Are Saying
Democratic consultant group Normington Petts, in the poll report: "Any arguments alleging that Mallory McMorrow is somehow a poor general election candidate or that Haley Stevens is a superior general election candidate are equally refuted by these data. In fact, these data suggest that McMorrow has higher upside potential and that Stevens brings a vulnerability to the table that McMorrow does not possess."
Former Representative Mike Rogers told Newsweek in June: "It is continuing the optimism that we preached about making Michigan a manufacturing state. Our economy has been flat here for a decade. We're going to change that. Our education system has been in decline for a decade. We're going to help be a part of changing that. I'm very optimistic about what comes next."
Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow told Newsweek in February: "We have to be willing to not be afraid of stepping into any conversation and not being so polished all the time. People will trust you more if you don't sound like a sound bite all the time."
Senate candidate Haley Stevens told Newsweek in May: "As a native Michigander, who grew up as the daughter of small business owners in Southeast Michigan, my parents actually had a landscaping business. It was a ton of hard work, a lot of grease, grime, dirt. My dad picking me up, oftentimes covered in dirt, you know, and I'd say, 'Dad, why are you so dirty?' Well, it's because he was working hard. And it is that value of hard Michigan work that has motivated me my entire career."
What Happens Next
Michigan's primary will be held in August 2026, so candidates have more than a year to make their case to voters. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a pure toss-up.
Update 7/25/25, 10:12 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.
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