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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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As Americans go to the polls for the midterm elections, Ukraine will be keenly watching if voting mirrors polling and causes a congressional shift toward the Democrats, who have championed the fight against Vladimir Putin's aggression.
During his second term, Donald Trump's relationship with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky ebbed and flowed—ranging from a public White House spat to the U.S. president signing from the Resolute Desk a tough sanctions bill against Russia.
Experts told Newsweek that sanctions, military support and missile defense are at stake for Kyiv should the Democrats take the House and the Senate but Trump would still hold the very cards he said Zelensky lacked during their infamous White House confrontation.
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"Ultimately, Trump and his foreign policy team have the prerogative to set U.S. policy toward Ukraine," Matthew Arnold, a political expert from the London School of Economics think tank LSE Ideas, told Newsweek.
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Impact On Ukraine's Air Defense
Zelensky welcomed the U.S. approval of the possible sale of 500 PATRIOT Advanced Capability-e (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles and related equipment to Ukraine, announced by the State Department on 30 October, but is worried it could be years before Kyiv gets the kit.
And as Ukraine braces itself for the toughest winter of the war, Russia is stepping up its attacks on energy infrastructure to freeze Ukrainians in the cold months in a tactic by Putin to offset a front line stalemate.
In these difficult circumstances, Democratic gains will not have an immediate effect on Ukraine's ability to defend itself from Russia's drones and missiles.
"A change in congressional leadership would put fresh Ukraine aid back on the agenda—but it won't resolve the short-term shortage of Patriot air-defense supplies," said Yuriy Boyechko, CEO of Hope for Ukraine, which helps communities on the war's front line.
New appropriations would secure the financial framework for future arms transfers, but the physical delivery of interceptors is constrained by defense production limitations and delivery lead times of years, he said.
"A political shift is a positive indicator for long-term funding sustainability, yet insufficient on its own to immediately increase Patriot availability on the battlefield," Boyechko told Newsweek.
In any case, the global stock of PAC-3 interceptors is constrained, demand has increased dramatically because of the war in Iran, and production takes years to expand.
"A new Congress could put pressure on the Pentagon to prioritize Ukraine, accelerate production and approve transfers from allied stocks, but it cannot solve the shortage overnight," Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Business School Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told Newsweek. "Congress cannot manufacture weapons."
Trump wants Europe to pay for Ukraine’s weapons and says that Ukrainian concessions to Russia are essential for any peace deal, said Arnold, who is director of LSE IDEAS’ Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Program.
"I don’t think he’ll change that even after the elections," he added, "I don’t see the Trump administration reasserting the approach of the Biden administration or even softening his own approach, whatever happens in U.S. politics."
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What It Means For Russian Sanctions
Trump's sidestepping of Congress on Ukraine issues during his second term have shown legislation is not necessarily carried out as lawmakers had wanted it.
Soon after signing a much-lauded sanctions bill pushed by late Senator Lindsey Graham to throttle Moscow's war machine, Trump lifted restrictions on Russian diesel imports into the U.S. to ease pressure on gas prices.
Russia’s renewed participation in the G20 which Washington pushed for and U.S. imports of Russian diesel "were widely loathed steps across both parties, but Trump still did it," said Arnold.
Also, despite Congress authorizing military aid worth $400 million, the Pentagon delayed the release of the assistance until the end of April after months of bureaucratic hurdles.
"History shows that administrations of both parties readily utilize statutory waivers or soft-pedal secondary sanctions when enforcement conflicts with broader economic or foreign policy goals," said Boyechko.
A new legislature can instill tougher penalties but they will only bite if the White House chooses to discard executive discretion and aggressively polices enforcement, he added.
However, a Democratic House majority would make it easier to put Ukraine assistance back on the agenda if the speaker, who controls what reaches the floor, ends up being current House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Brian Taylor, author of The Code of Putinism said that Democratic control of the House or Senate would give the party three levers to push for Ukraine assistance or new sanctions.
These would be through control of the agenda and schedule, control over appropriations and control over committee hearings.
"Given that there is strong Democratic support for Ukraine in Congress—and notable Republican support—it is possible that new Ukraine assistance packages will pass both houses and be sent to President Trump," he told Newsweek.
"Because Trump is heading into his last two years and will be a lame duck, Republicans who support Ukraine may feel less inhibited in supporting such legislation."
Arnold from LSE Ideas said Congress could also attach Ukraine assistance to must-pass legislation such as the National Defense Authorization Act or appropriations bills, making it politically more difficult for Trump to veto.
"What a Democratic Congress could do is reassert Ukraine as a key priority for direct U.S. assistance and allow for greater policy debate about what that should entail," said Arnold.
"It is hard to imagine, however, that would be particularly successful given how forceful the administration has been toward Ukraine for the last two years," he added.
Could Trump Officials Be Subpoenaed?
A Democratic majority in one or both chambers would also give the party leadership of committees, raising the prospect that they could subpoena executive officials who have questions to answer about Ukraine policy.
Taylor said that oversight hearings in the Armed Services committees could open investigations into Space X founder Elon Musk’s role in slowdowns of his Starlink satellite network which impacted Ukraine's defense.
They could also look into business deals that Trump's special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner might be pushing in negotiations with Russia, although there is no proof of wrongdoing.
"Given that Musk has donated nearly half a billion dollars to Republican candidates and PACs, Democrats might well want to ask him why a private businessman tied to one party should have the power to affect national security policy in such a direct way," said Taylor, professor at Syracuse University, New York.
Meanwhile, Arnold said that congressional hearings into the back room motives and maneuvering of Trump's peace envoys may be prioritized, which could give Ukraine and its European backers more leverage.
"The risk is that messier domestic politics in the U.S. will mean Ukraine becomes more of a partisan wedge topic between a Democratic Congress and an increasingly recalcitrant 80-year-old Republican president," added Arnold.
Whatever happens on Tuesday, U.S. domestic issues, rather than Ukraine will be the focus for the Democrats according to its 100-day post-victory plan which deals with the cost of living, inflation and fuel prices.
"If the Democrats take control of the House or the Senate or both, that on balance would probably be good news for Ukraine," said Taylor, however, he added, "regardless of the midterm election results, the president still dominates foreign policy."
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall and Matthew Robinson
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