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By Alia Shoaib
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President Donald Trump unquestionably remains the dominant figure in the Republican Party, wielding significant influence over who represents it and the policies it pursues.
In the lead-up to the 2026 midterms, he played an active role in handing out coveted endorsements to Republican candidates in primaries and general elections.
But as Democrats swept into control of both the Senate and the House this week, including winning several high-profile races involving Trump-backed Republicans, questions have emerged over how much an endorsement from the president counts.
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Trump Remains Influential in Republican Primaries
In the 2026 elections, Trump issued the most endorsements of any election cycle since he first took office.
He offered 315 Republican primary endorsements, with a 96 percent success rate, according to Ballotpedia. That is broadly in line with his record in previous cycles. His primary success rate has remained above 90 percent in every midterm and presidential election year since 2018.
Trump endorsed 330 candidates in the 2026 general elections, with a 73 percent success rate so far, with some results still outstanding.
His previous record in general elections was less consistent, ranging from 59 percent success in 2018 to 89 percent in 2024.
The gap between the success of his primary and general election endorsed candidates is notable but not particularly surprising.
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor in Northeastern University’s department of political science, told Newsweek in a preelection phone call that endorsements are typically more influential in primaries.
“A Trump endorsement would have been more influential in primary campaigns when voters had less information and no party cues to rely on in voting in those races,” he said.
In general elections, party identification tends to play a greater role in who voters cast their ballots for, Panagopoulos noted, and voters can also generally expect the president to have endorsed candidates from his own party.
“It would say more if he has not endorsed in a race,” Panagopoulos said, adding that Trump's endorsements would “not matter very much” in general elections.
A candidate’s success also depends on their individual popularity, the strength of their opponent, and the political landscape in which they are running—a number of factors other than the president’s endorsement.
The Limits of Trump's Influence
Trump's endorsement remains hugely influential in deciding who wins a primary and gets to represent his party in general elections, but its impact is less apparent with the wider electorate.
His involvement may also become a liability when he throws his support behind primary candidates who ultimately prove to be unpopular among the general voting public, or when the electorate is motivated by opposing Trump directly.
According to CBS News exit polls, 78 percent of voters who backed Democrats in House races said they voted to oppose Trump, compared with 36 percent of Republican voters who said they were voting to back the president.
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Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek before the election that Trump's influence over individual races was “probably” waning.
“He has been very active on the trail, and I don't know if you're seeing a whole lot of poll movement,” Kondik said.
Democrats have flipped seven Senate seats, with two seats yet to be declared. Five of those were in states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024.
These results show that Trump's personal electoral success does not necessarily translate into victories for other candidates. They also come as his approval ratings have reached near-record lows.
The president effectively called for the midterms to be a referendum on him, repeatedly telling voters to act as if he were on the ballot.
But as the disappointing results trickled in, Trump changed tack, writing on Truth Social, “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”
Loyalty Over Electability
In several primaries, the president backed Republican primary challengers seeking to unseat incumbent lawmakers with whom he had clashed.
He openly made loyalty and personal dynamics explicit factors in his primary endorsements.
While it is difficult to quantify how much Trump's endorsement contributed to the primary results, many of these challengers went on to become their party’s nominees.
One of the most notable was in Texas, where Trump endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton against four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff.
Paxton won the Republican nomination, but went on to lose the general election to Democrat James Talarico, who became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988.
In backing Paxton, Trump described him as “extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT,” while criticizing Cornyn for a lack of support.
Similarly, in North Carolina, Trump threatened to back a primary challenger against Republican Senator Thom Tillis after he opposed the president's spending bill.
Tillis subsequently announced he would not seek reelection, clearing the way for Trump's preferred candidate, Michael Whatley, who went on to lose the general election in a landslide to Democrat Roy Cooper.
In Ohio, Trump continued to support his former aide, Representative Max Miller, despite calls for him to step aside following allegations of domestic abuse and violence, which he denied. Miller lost his seat to Democrat Brian Poindexter in a district Trump won decisively in 2024.
However, in the Louisiana Senate race and a Kentucky House race, Trump backed Julia Letlow and Ed Gallrein against incumbents Bill Cassidy and Thomas Massie—who had both clashed with the president on some policies. Both of the Trump-backed challengers won their primaries and went on to win their general elections in the traditionally Republican territories.
One notable example of Trump wielding his influence in the selection of a Republican nominee was in the South Carolina Senate race. Darline Graham had been appointed to serve out the remainder of her late brother Lindsey Graham’s term, and Trump endorsed her and encouraged her to seek a full term.
Graham, who had never held elected office before, won the Republican nomination but lost the general election to Annie Andrews, giving Democrats a massive upset victory for a full Senate term.
It is possible these races would have played out similarly without Trump's endorsements, but Tuesday night's outcomes raise significant questions about whether his focus on loyalty came at the expense of electability.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Geoffrey Rowland.
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