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By Nick Mordowanec
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A new poll of Michigan Democrats vying for a U.S. Senate in 2026 shows a close primary race following the first three months of candidates' campaigns.
Why It Matters
Current Democratic Senator Gary Peters' decision not to run for reelection in 2026 after more than a decade in office has opened the door for multiple candidates statewide to attempt to keep the seat blue in one of the most important swing states in the nation.
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The seat will be targeted by Republicans as a prime opportunity as a pickup after President Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2024.
House Representative Haley Stevens of Michigan's 11th District, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and former Michigan State House Speaker Joe Tate are vying to join Michigan's other Democratic Senator, Elissa Slotkin, in Washington, D.C.
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What To Know
New polling conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which aids Republicans attempting to become U.S. senators, has found no clear frontrunner as more than 40 percent of Democratic respondents remain undecided. That poll was initially obtained by the Daily Caller.
Stevens, a congresswoman since 2019, and Abdul El-Sayed, who is backed by progressive independent Senator Bernie Sanders, sit at 24 percent and 22 percent support, respectively, while Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow received 11 percent support in the poll. Tate registered at 1 percent.
The poll surveyed 582 likely Democratic primary voters between July 4 and July 7 and contains a 2.95 percent margin of error.
Newsweek reached out to the McMorrow campaign for comment.
Democratic respondents, when asked to name the most important issue facing Michigan, overwhelmingly cited Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (48 percent).
The Big Beautiful Bill Act that was signed by Trump on July 4 has been estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to lead to roughly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over the next decade, with 12 million people losing coverage by 2034.
Another 26 percent of respondents ranked the economy as the second most vital issue.
Republican Challengers
Whichever Democrat is victorious in their primary will face stiff competition in former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost his last U.S. Senate race against Slotkin in 2024 by fewer than 20,000 votes.
A poll released earlier this week, conducted by Normington Petts and first reported by Politico, measured Rogers' support against Stevens and McMorrow.
Rogers led McMorrow on a uninformed ballot by about 4 percentage points (48 percent to 44 percent), but when voters were told more information about each candidate, McMorrow led by 4 points (51 percent to 47 percent).
Stevens led Rogers by about 2 points (47 percent to 45 percent), but by only a single point on the informed ballot (49 percent to 48 percent), according to the poll.
A hypothetical Rogers victory could further cushion the GOP's U.S. Senate majority, which now sits at 53 seats against Democrats' 47 seats. Two independents caucus with Democrats.
What People Are Saying
A Haley Stevens spokesperson to Newsweek on Wednesday: "Even Republicans know Haley is the strongest candidate in this race because of her record of fighting for Michigan—something Mike Rogers and Bill Huizenga can't claim, especially after supporting cutting Medicaid and health care for children all to give billionaires tax breaks."
Abdul El-Sayed to Newsweek on Wednesday: "We're grateful for the incredible conversations we've been able to share with Michiganders across the state, and when polls reflect that, we're not surprised."
In April, during a rally held by President Donald Trump in Warren, Michigan, Rogers told Newsweek that the state—which voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024—"is moving to the right" and that he is supportive of the administration's policies.
"I've never seen anything quite like him. I get that you don't like his style, but I'm telling you this guy's doing the hardest work I've seen a president do to try to right the ship for the middle class of America. And Michiganders know that."
What Happens Next
Michigan's primary will be held in August 2026.
The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a toss-up.
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