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By Peter Aitken
Politics Weekend Editor
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The Brett Ratner-helmed Melania documentary is set to defy initial predictions and score a top five finish for its opening weekend, potentially beating out Jason Statham's new film according to projections.
Newsweek reached out to the White House by email outside of normal business hours on Saturday morning for comment.
Why It Matters
Initial projections on the documentary, which follows 20 days in the life of the first lady leading up to President Donald Trump's second inauguration, indicated a dismal prospect, with some outlets pre-judging the project as a flop before its release.
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The film has faced immense criticism, first for Ratner's involvement - who was ostracized in Hollywood following allegations of sexual harassment or misconduct by six women in 2017 - and then for the immense price tag slapped on the project: Amazon paid $40 million for the 104-minute documentary, with a further $35 million for marketing, totaling around $75 million - and making it one of the most expensive documentaries ever made.
South Africa pulled the film from its theaters ahead of its release, citing the "current climate" for the decision; and some critics have accused Amazon of trying to curry favor with Trump through this project: The New York Times called the project "a blatant act of corporate corruption." The president responded that the Times is "fake news" and that the film is "a big deal actually."
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What To Know
Early returns from the Friday box office of Melania indicate that despite reports of low ticket sales in some areas, the film could see an $8 million or more North American box office return, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
Should those numbers hold, it would land Melania at number 3 in its opening weekend, falling just behind Sam Raimi's Send Help and Iron Lung, the filmmaking debut from popular YouTuber Markplier. That would also mean beating out Jason Statham's Shelter - which would amount to a significant win for the first lady's film outing.
The initial Friday numbers showed Melania raking in $2.9 million across 1,778 theaters, according to tracking site Box Office Mojo - meaning it is showing in a little over half the number of theaters that are showing Shelter while grossing around 50 percent more.
Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, which won the Palme d'Or at Cannes, is the highest-grossing political documentary with a $222.4 million box office, surpassed only by Michael Jackson's This Is It in 2009, which grossed $268 million and Grand Canyon: The Hidden Secrets, a 1984 doc that grossed around $239 million.
As such, expectations should remain cautious or even tepid about the long-term success of the film, but its opening weekend stands as the highest-grossing opening weekend for a documentary over the past 10 years, beating out the $5 million debut of the 2023 documentary After Death, according to ScreenRant.
Reviews for the film are likely to work against its long-term prospects, with Rotten Tomatoes recording just 12 percent positive reviews (out of 17 that have been published), but the film has seen significant audience support, raking in a nearly perfect score with 99 percent positive reviews on the film review site - meaning word of mouth among certain crowds could be enough to help it achieve a respectable return even if profitability remains highly unlikely.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump at the film's premiere: “I’m not involved. It was done with my wife. I think it’s a very important movie. It shows life in the White House. It’s a big deal, actually.”
An Amazon spokesperson previously told Newsweek: "We are excited to share this truly unique story with our millions of customers around the world."
Melania Trump told Fox News in December: "For the first time, global audiences are invited into theaters to witness this pivotal chapter unfold—a private, unfiltered look as I navigate family, business, and philanthropy on my remarkable journey to becoming first lady of the United States of America."
What Happens Next
Final box office figures will not be confirmed until Monday morning, but a prospective figure will be reported on Sunday afternoon.
Update 2/1/26, 10:47 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.
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