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By Suzanne Blake
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Medicare beneficiaries could see their Part B premiums nearly double over the next decade, according to a new report from the Senate Joint Economic Committee.
This raises fresh concerns about the affordability of health care for seniors who already face rising out‑of‑pocket costs.
The report projects that per‑person Medicare Part B premiums will rise from about $2,200 per year in the mid‑2020s to roughly $4,500 by 2035, driven largely by rapidly increasing program spending and continued overpayments to Medicare Advantage insurers.
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Why It Matters
Under current law, Medicare Part B premiums are set to cover 25 percent of expected Part B costs, meaning any increase in overall spending is automatically passed through to seniors in the form of higher monthly premiums.
This uptick will occur regardless of whether they are enrolled in traditional Medicare or Medicare Advantage, putting pressure on many seniors’ budgets and spending on other necessities like housing and transportation.
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What To Know
Per‑person Part B expenditures are projected to nearly double over the next decade, climbing from roughly $9,100 in 2025 to more than $18,000 in 2035. Because premiums are tied directly to those costs, baseline Part B premiums are expected to rise alongside the expenditures.
The committee estimates that standard premiums alone could increase from about $2,200 per year in 2025 to around $4,500 by 2035, with average premiums rising even higher for some beneficiaries due to income‑related surcharges.
“Because Part B premiums are tied to total Medicare spending, those higher costs end up impacting everyone, including seniors in traditional Medicare,” Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek.
The report also revealed that continued overpayments to Medicare Advantage (MA) plans are a major contributor to rising Part B costs. In 2025, the federal government paid MA insurers an estimated 17 to 20 percent more than it would have cost to cover the same beneficiaries under traditional Medicare, according to the committee.
Those overpayments increase overall Part B spending, which in turn raises premiums for all enrollees. According to the committee’s estimates, Medicare Advantage overpayments added more than $200 per enrollee to Part B premiums in 2025 alone.
“Regulatory efforts lag behind the problem,” Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek. “CMS has tried clawback audits and risk adjustments, but the program's scale and MA lobbying power keep comprehensive reforms stalled.”
By 2035, the report projects that about $450 of the roughly $5,000 annual Part B premium could be caused by continued overpayments, if current payment policies remain unchanged.
Higher Part B premiums are typically deducted directly from Social Security benefits, meaning rising premiums can reduce seniors’ net monthly checks even when cost‑of‑living adjustments are applied.
“When Medicare Advantage was initially introduced, it was, like its name, presented as an enhancement over traditional Medicare,” Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek.
“However, in recent years, that introductory claim has been put to the test, and many seniors who have been covered through it have ended up disappointed as coverage was lackluster and, in some situations, the insurer actually dropped coverage from a complete city or portion of a state.”
What People Are Saying
Chris Bond, a spokesperson for AHIP, the association representing health insurers, told Newsweek: “Numerous experts continue to warn that making policy based on MedPAC’s fundamentally flawed data, methodology and extrapolations could harm 35 million Medicare beneficiaries who choose MA for more affordable, high-quality health care coverage.”
Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: “It is expected, over the next decade, Medicare premiums could nearly double, which effectively becomes a quiet tax on retirees, especially those living on fixed incomes. Seniors should understand that healthcare costs will continue to put pressure on retirement income.”
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: “These overpayments could add hundreds of dollars to Medicare premiums if these issues continue. With inflationary pressures weighing heavily on Medicare recipients, a solution needs to be reached that won't dramatically increase costs on some of the most vulnerable Americans. The question is how to do that while maintaining the infrastructure designed between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage over the last decade.”
What Happens Next
Without changes, the combination of rising health care costs and automatic premium pass‑throughs could leave millions of seniors paying substantially more for Medicare Part B over the next decade.
Ryan said low-seniors on traditional Medicare without access to Medicare savings programs or Medicaid will likely get hit the hardest, alongside higher-income beneficiaries who pay income-related adjustment amounts on top of their standard premiums.
“This isn't hypothetical cost shifting. MA overpayments are demonstrably driving up premiums today, and without legislative action, the cumulative effect could be severe,” Ryan said.
Update 3/11/26, 12:14 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from AHIP spokesperson Chris Bond.
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