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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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This NBA Finals matchup between the Mavericks and the Celtics is not short on storylines, with Dallas guard Kyrie Irving and Boston center Kristaps Porzingis both going up against their former teams. For Game 1, the Celtics find themselves 6.5-point favorites, with DraftKings offering the best Boston moneyline odds at -230.
For this specific article, though, let's dive into player props as opposed to main lines.
Play 1: Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (-130) at DraftKings
The Mavericks have made a remarkable defensive turnaround since the All-Star break, and part of that improvement has had to do with having at least one of Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II on the floor at all times to protect the rim. They are elite rim protectors, and their presence has helped improve Dallas's defensive Net Rating to 111.1 in the playoffs, which would have been the fifth-best net rating in the NBA over the course of the regular season.
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These two centers want to stay close to the rim, though, and none of the Mavericks' three playoff matchups leading up to the Finals presented the issue that Porzingis does: a stretch big. So, the guess here is that Porzingis's outside shooting is going to be a huge factor in this series.
The Thunder's Chet Holmgren is considered a stretch big, but he isn't nearly the shooter that Porzingis is. Although they shot a similar percentage from 3-point range in the regular season, Holmgren did so on almost one full fewer attempt per game. Holmgren also doesn't nearly have the same quick trigger that Porzingis does.
In the regular season, the Mavericks allowed the fifth-most made 3-pointers to centers in the NBA, and the reason is because the Mavericks don't want to have Gafford and Lively II guarding space out on the perimeter, which generally leaves sharp-shooting bigs open from deep. These two teams last played on March 1 (after the Mavericks acquired Gafford), and while the Mavericks hadn't quite found their identity yet, it's still notable that Porzingis made four 3-pointers in that game, including three in the first quarter alone.
Play 2: Luka Doncic over 49.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-105) DraftKings
Backing Luka Doncic is not a tough sell by any means, but the Celtics defensive approach in particular really lends itself to Doncic having a massive series from both a points and assists perspective. In addition, the Celtics' shot profile on offense lends itself to Luka collecting a bunch of rebounds.
Doncic could dominate if he sees drop coverage
In the regular season, the Celtics allowed the second-most points per game to pick-and-roll ball-handlers, and Doncic ran the fifth-most pick-and-rolls per game in the regular season with 10.6. That number has gone up to 12.6 per game in the playoffs. In the Mavericks' two regular season games against the Celtics this season, Doncic scored 33 and 37 points, and it wouldn't be surprising if he averaged 35-plus in this series.
The reason why Doncic was able to have so much success against the Celtics is because of the high drop-coverage that the Celtics play on defense against pick-and-rolls. This style leads to a ton of above-the-break and pull-up 3-pointers, which are Luka's bread and butter. In the regular season, the Celtics allowed the second-most above-the-break 3-point attempts in the NBA at 28.7 per game, and the most pull-up 3-point attempts per game at 11.4. Luka, meanwhile, attempted the most pull-up 3-pointers in the NBA in the regular season (8.5), and the second-most above-the-break 3-pointers (10.2), behind only Steph Curry.
From an assist perspective, Doncic had 13 and 11 dimes in those two games, and the drop-coverage can also lead to a lot of assists from pick-and-roll ball-handlers. The whole purpose of dropping the big man on the pick-and-roll is to keep everything in front of him, but a player with Doncic's ability to dissect the defense means that he is consistently able to create a good shot either for himself or for his teammates. Doncic averaged the most assists per game in the regular season on assists via drives, and that number has actually increased in the playoffs.
Doncic primed for plenty of rebounding opportunities
As for rebounding, Doncic has a chance to clean the glass because the Celtics take a ton of jumpshots. They led the NBA with 42.5 3-point attempts per game in the regular season, and in the playoffs that number dropped slightly to 39.8 3-point attempts per game, but that still would have led the league.
What this shot profile means is that, per their average, guards against the Celtics are able to rack up more rebounds than centers. This is, quite simply, because of how physics works: the farther from the basket the shot is attempted from means the farther the ball bounces off the rim, which leads to more rebound chances for guards as opposed to centers. In the two regular season games against the Celtics this year, Doncic collected 18 and 12 rebounds.
Play 3: Daniel Gafford Under 5.5 Rebounds (+110) ESPNBet
This play shouldn't come as a surprise based on everything you just read about center rebounds against the Celtics' shot profile, but Gafford is a great fade candidate in general in this series for multiple reasons.
All of the analysis about why the Celtics are a great matchup for guard rebound props applies to Gafford in the inverse. For context, in the regular season the Celtics were the fourth-worst matchup when it came to center rebound props. To even further speak to that point, in the regular season, centers averaged the fourth-fewest rebounds per game against the Celtics.
It's also possible that Porzingis plays Gafford off the floor entirely because Gafford isn't proficient at guarding the perimeter. When he is in the game, he likely won't average nearly as many rebounding chances as he did in the first three playoff series for the Mavericks.
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