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By Giulia Carbonaro
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Democrat Mary Peltola is still leading Republican Dan Sullivan in the latest poll of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, but by a narrower margin than earlier this month, suggesting the ballot controversy involving a namesake challenger to the incumbent has dented but not derailed her campaign.
Peltola, an Alaska native and former congresswoman, is leading the Ohio-born Republican senator 48 percent to 46 percent in a New York Times/Siena poll of 610 likely voters released on Sunday and conducted between October 23 and October 30. Less than .5 percent of the vote went to one of the two other candidates, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald “Jerry” Heikes, while 6 percent of respondents said they did not know who they would vote for. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
While still in the lead, the previous New York Times/Siena poll, released on October 3 and conducted between September 24 and October 1 among 504 likely voters, gave Peltola a much wider margin, with 50 percent of the vote to Sullivan’s 43 percent. As in the latest poll, 6 percent of voters did not know who they would vote for, while 1 percent of the votes went to one of the two other candidates. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
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While a Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Alaska since 2008 and the state backed Donald Trump in the past three presidential elections, Democrats are counting on a Peltola victory to bolster their chances of taking control of the upper chamber. Democrats need to win four seats to gain the majority of the Senate, which the Republicans currently hold 53 to 47.
The success of Peltola’s campaign, as shown in recent polls, has given the party reasons to believe winning the Alaska Senate race was achievable, and experts agreed. But now, experts told Newsweek that the incumbent might have a stronger chance to be re-elected after all.
Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: What Latest Polls Show
Recent polls have consistently put Peltola ahead, even though her lead has contracted over the last couple of weeks.
A poll by progressive pollster Data for Progress conducted between October 8 and October 16 had given Peltola ahead with 49 percent to Sullivan’s 46 percent in the first round of voting, while Sullivan Jr. received 4 percent of the vote and Heikes 1 percent. In the second round of voting, with Sullivan Jr. and Heikes eliminated under the state’s ranked-choice voting system, Peltola had 51 percent of the vote to Sullivan’s 49 percent. The poll was conducted among 675 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Peltola enjoyed an even bigger lead in a previous poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage between October 9 and October 10 among 1,200 likely voters, receiving 48 percent of the vote in the first round of the election against Sullivan’s 43 percent, Heikes’ 2 percent and Sullivan Jr.’s 2 percent. Five percent of respondents did not know who they would vote for. In the second round of voting, Peltola’s lead narrowed to 50 percent to Sullivan’s 48 percent, with 2 percent of voters still not knowing who they would cast their vote for.
These polls show that Peltola’s lead has narrowed over the last month, especially in the wake of a dispute surrounding the candidacy of Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher and fishing enthusiast who a former Peltola staffer told the New York Times was recruited by Democrats to siphon votes away from the incumbent.
It was the second time Peltola’s campaign came under scrutiny because of allegations made by disgruntled former staffers. Last month, the New York Times reported allegations of abusive and volatile behavior by the Democratic candidate against congressional and campaign staffers.
At the time, Sullivan was trailing Peltola in polls and was proving vulnerable to her team’s attacks over his stock trades and financial disclosures and his support of data centers. Since then, his team has embraced the allegations made against Peltola and used them in its own campaign ads.
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Latest Developments in Alaska Senate Race
The controversy around the candidacy of Sullivan Jr. came to an end on Sunday, when a federal judge in Alaska dismissed the Trump administration’s lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race’s results if Sullivan lost and votes cast for his namesake challenger would have allowed him to win.
The Justice Department had filed its lawsuit last month, arguing that the presence of a second Dan Sullivan would have caused confusion among voters and drew votes away from the senator. The federal government later amended the initial lawsuit to include reporting by the New York Times claiming that Sullivan Jr. was intentionally recruited by Peltola’s team for this purpose.
Peltola’s team and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) filed motions to quickly dismiss the lawsuit, alleging that the president and his administration were trying to use the pending issue “to falsely suggest that there is doubt about the lawfulness of Alaska’s election results, without any legal basis, to lay the groundwork for unlawful efforts to challenge a potential Peltola victory.”
Peltola denied being aware of the plan to recruit a namesake challenger to Sullivan, and her team called the allegations a “distraction” used by the Justice Department to shift attention away from its lawsuit’s “meritless claims.”
In her Sunday ruling, Chief Judge Sharon Gleason of U.S. District Court in Alaska concluded that the lawsuit did not offer a solution to the voter confusion it was concerned about. The federal government, she said, “offers no rebuttal to the concerns regarding preservation of the secrecy of voting and provides no explanation of how its request for ballot segregation and a court-ordered investigation by law enforcement officers into certain voters’ intent could be implemented while preserving the secrecy of the ballot.”
A spokesperson for the Justice Department said the federal government plans to appeal the judge’s decision. Newsweek contacted the Justice Department, Peltola’s and Sullivan’s campaigns for comment by email on Monday morning.
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What Experts Say About the Latest Polls
According to Forrest Nabors, an assistant professor of political science in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Alaska-Anchorage, Peltola still “has a good chance of winning but her chances are waning.”
Until recently, Nabors thought that the Democrat would win a close race. After the controversy that surrounded her campaign this month, he is no longer sure.
“I believe that her campaign has suffered because it undercuts her campaign’s pitch that Sen. Sullivan is corrupt and that she cares about fairness and the interests of Alaskans,” he told Newsweek. “We are not yet seeing this damage in the polls yet and probably it is too late to see the effect before election day.
“Nevertheless, the story is reaching low-information voters. When the last story broke only about 20 percent of expected voters had cast their ballots. If 2 percent or more voters break for Sullivan, he will win.”
Russell Luke, assistant professor of political science at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, believes that Peltola still has “a solid chance” of winning. “The most recent polls available put her slightly ahead of Dan Sullivan, and this race is rated as a ‘toss-up’ by all the sources I’ve seen,” he told Newsweek.
Luke thinks that the allegations of abusive behavior made against Peltola did not have “a tremendous impact” on her campaign. “While some Alaska voters may have been offended by her alleged use of those slurs and unsettled by the reportedly hostile and abusive work environment, my read is that the issues of the campaign have remained more significant. It has also been some time since that story was first reported and many may have forgotten or otherwise moved on to more immediate concerns,” he said.
“The story regarding the alleged attempt to recruit other Dan Sullivans may have more of an impact, particularly as this was reported much closer to election day.
“A central part of the political identity Peltola and her campaign have cultivated is that she is a politician willing to set aside partisanship to get things done for Alaska. She currently has ads out with language like ‘forget politics’ and ‘no politics’ in them, and the reported attempt is about as political as it gets."
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But Luke does not think that Peltola’s political identity is a key factor in the Alaska Senate race. “Alaska voters appear to care most deeply about affordability, the price of fuel, and the cost of heating their homes this winter. I remain convinced that swing voters will cast their ballots next week for whichever candidate they perceive as most likely to deliver better economic conditions,” he said.
“Some voters may also be motivated to sanction the president indirectly for the Iran war, thus voting for Peltola. I don’t think that’s changed due to this story. It’s possible that some marginal Peltola supporters may be demobilized due to this, but I don’t think that effect will be substantial.”
Why Alaska Senate Race Matters in 2026 Midterms
Alaska is one of the Republican-held seats that Democrats are hoping to flip in the midterms to gain control of the Senate. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows something of a blue tsunami potentially sweeping over the country on Election Day, with Democratic candidates ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa U.S. Senate races, even if by narrow margins.
Close polling, however, is far from a prediction of the final results, which may differ significantly, ultimately, from polls.
“There are still many hotly contested Senate races around the country. Due to the effect of these stories, Sullivan could still win while the bad national climate works against many other Republican candidates,” Nabors said. “It would not surprise me if the Democrats win the senate majority but Sullivan retains his seat.”
The Alaska Senate race “very well could be the seat that determines which party controls the Senate and possibly Congress if the House goes to the Democrats, as most expect it will,” Luke said.
Sullivan, Luke explained, has not made “any obvious missteps” that would explain his current vulnerability to Peltola.
“In most other electoral contexts, Senator Sullivan would not be facing this kind of threat. He is the incumbent and has governed, largely, in line with many Alaska voters’ preferences,” Luke said. “However, Senator Sullivan has generally voted the Republican Party line in the Senate. Many Alaskans are angry or disaffected with the Republican Party, seeing the party generally, and President Trump specifically, as responsible for a higher cost of living due to the Iran war."
Alaska voters are likely to redirect their frustrations towards Sullivan “as the most visible symbol of the Republican Party in Washington,” according to Luke, while embracing Peltola.
“More than 60 percent of registered voters in Alaska are UNOs (undeclared, nonpartisan, or other). The ‘ruby-red’ nature of Alaska in recent decades is in large part due to Democratic, at least rhetorical, opposition to oil and advocacy for measures to limit or reverse climate change,” he said.
“Alaska’s economy goes as oil goes, and many Alaskans vote accordingly. Mary Peltola had a fairly good record on this subject while in the House, and has reaffirmed her support for Alaska’s oil industry this cycle. There are also aspects of libertarianism within the Republican Party that align with the Alaska-specific ethos of self-reliance and independence, resulting in more Republican support in recent years.”
Whichever way the race goes, the results might come with a significant delay due to Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system.
“What needs to be clear prior to the election is that we are highly unlikely to know which candidate won this race on election night,” Luke said. “Assuming that neither Sullivan nor Peltola wins an outright majority, which appears to be the likeliest outcome, ranked choice tabulation will take place fifteen days after the election.
“This is expected, and simply the result of the voting system and expansive nature of the State. It will be unfortunate if the rest of the country has to wait on Alaska to know the fate of the Senate, but that is a highly likely outcome given the evidence available.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Emma Lee-Sang
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