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By Anna Commander
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As Tennessee Republicans gear up to choose their nominee for governor on August 6, the race between U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn and U.S. Representative John Rose has seemingly become more competitive than many observers expected, according to one poll.
While Blackburn entered the contest as the overwhelming favorite, a final survey suggests Rose has narrowed the gap after an aggressive late campaign fueled by millions of dollars in self-financing, local outlets report. The primary has also been jolted recently following local reporting that Blackburn's Senate office was the subject of a confidential Senate Ethics Committee review into the alleged use of taxpayer-funded resources for political campaign activities. While Blackburn's office says the matter was resolved and has denied wrongdoing, the investigation has become a point of attack in the gubernatorial primary, raising questions over transparency and ethics.
Even so, Blackburn remains the candidate to beat, with most public surveys continuing to show her holding a consistent advantage.
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Midterm elections are commonly seen as a measure of public approval for the current president, and the president's party has traditionally lost seats during them. There are currently 26 Republican governors nationwide compared to 24 Democratic-led states. In the 2024 presidential election, President Donald Trump overwhelmingly won Tennessee by nearly 30 percent, versus then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
Newsweek reached out to both Blackburn and Rose's campaigns via email on Wednesday night for comment.
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What To Know
Despite the tightening poll, Blackburn still appears to hold structural advantages. She enjoys near-universal statewide name recognition after serving in both the U.S. House and Senate and has raised more campaign contributions from donors than Rose.
Her challenger Rose, meanwhile, has relied heavily on personal campaign loans—reportedly totaling around $13 million—to rapidly increase his visibility and challenge Blackburn's long-standing lead.
Another factor working in Blackburn's favor is Tennessee's recent Republican electoral history. She has consistently performed well in statewide races, winning her Republican Senate primaries in both 2018 and 2024.
Rose's strategy has focused on convincing conservative voters that he represents a stronger outsider alternative, but with no endorsement from Trump in the gubernatorial primary, neither candidate has gained what could be seen as a decisive advantage among Republican voters.
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What Polling Shows
Based on public polling, and unless late-deciding voters break decisively for Rose, Blackburn appears better positioned to secure the Republican nomination for Tennessee governor.
In a late survey conducted by Republican-aligned polling firm OnMessage, Blackburn leads with 34.5 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, compared with 31 percent for Rose.
State Representative Monty Fritts also drew notable support in the poll with 25.6 percent, indicating that the anti-Blackburn vote remains divided rather than consolidating behind Rose. The survey also shows that 9 percent were undecided. Although Blackburn's campaign questioned the poll's methodology, its results seem to reinforce that what once looked like a comfortable Blackburn victory may be a genuinely competitive race.
The poll was conducted from July 23 to July 25 among 800 likely Republican primary voters, and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Pollster Wes Anderson told The Tennessean that “The race has closed up dramatically.” He added in part that, "it’s going to come down to whether Marsha can outrun the cheetah or the cheetah catches her. The momentum is clearly on Rose’s side.”
However, Blackburn's campaign manager Abigail Sigler ripped into the poll, saying to the outlet that "Any pollster who won't release the full demographics is hiding something. This is a desperate attempt by political consultants to get their candidate to invest even more than the $13 million of his own money he's already poured in. Marsha Blackburn is going to be the Republican nominee and then the 51st Governor of the state of Tennessee."
An internal poll from Rose’s campaign in June also shows Blackburn in the lead with 44 percent of the likely Republican primary voters compared to Rose's 29 percent and Fritts' 12 percent.
The poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, surveyed 600 likely voters from June 28 to June 30 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.
An internal poll last month by Blackburn's campaign shows her out ahead of Rose by 17 points. The survey, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, shows Blackburn with 42 percent compared to Rose's 25 percent and Fritts' 22 percent, with 11 percent of respondents undecided.
The pollster surveyed 800 Tennessee Republican primary voters from July 26 to July 28 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
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What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Prediction market site Kalshi also shows Blackburn with a massive advantage Wednesday night, with 96.8 percent compared to Rose's 3.2 percent on Thursday. Polymarket, meanwhile, showed Blackburn with a 95 percent chance of winning compared to Rose’s 5 percent chance as of Thursday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
When Do Polls Close in Tennessee?
All polls in Tennessee close at 8 p.m. ET or 7 p.m. CT on August 6, according to the Tennessee Secretary of State office.
Is Tennessee Governor Race Competitive for Democrats?
The Tennessee governor race is unlikely to become competitive in November. Trump received just over 64 percent of the vote, while former Vice President Kamala Harris won less than 35 percent of the vote, in the 2024 election. Even in a national environment that favors Democrats, Tennessee would likely be a difficult state for Democrats. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball do not view the race as competitive.
Tennessee last elected a Democratic governor in 2006, when former Governor Phil Bredesen won reelection in a landslide victory with nearly 69 percent of the vote. Since then, Republicans have easily won every governor race in the state. In 2022, Republican Governor Bill Lee won by more than 30 points with nearly 65 percent of the vote.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins and Sam Wilson.
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