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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona has said he will “seriously consider” a 2028 presidential run, as bookmakers begin pricing him among potential Democratic contenders.
Why It Matters
Kelly’s comments come as early signals emerge about the shape of the 2028 race, with betting markets offering one of the first external gauges of perceived viability.
Read More on Politics
His inclusion reflects broader interest in how Democrats could line up beyond their current front-runners.
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What To Know
Kelly has not declared a presidential campaign, but has confirmed he is weighing the idea.
He made that clear in an interview with the BBC's Newsnight, where he described a potential run as a serious but unresolved decision.
But that caution has not stopped early speculation.
Star Sports, which tracks political betting markets, has included Kelly among a wider field of possible Democratic nominees for 2028.
According to the bookmaker, Kelly is currently priced at 16/1 to win the Democratic nomination, placing him alongside figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost in 2024 to President Donald Trump, at 16/1 and behind early favorites including California Governor Gavin Newsom (7/2) and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12/1).
William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, told Newsweek that Kelly’s background and electoral record help explain why he is being closely watched, despite not formally entering the race.
Kedjanyi pointed to Kelly’s previous consideration for national office, as well as his ability to win statewide in Arizona, a key battleground.
Star Sports described him as one of several candidates whose odds could shorten if they formally announce a run.
Kelly, 61, was among six lawmakers with military or intelligence experience targeted by the government after they released a 90‑second video encouraging troops to refuse orders they considered unlawful.
The video was published as scrutiny intensified over the legality of U.S. strikes on suspected narco‑trafficking boats off South America.
Since then, the Pentagon has attempted to demote Kelly’s military rank, and a grand jury has declined to pursue seditious conspiracy charges.
U.S. 2028 Presidential Election Odds
Star Sports’ early betting markets reflect a wide‑open contest across parties, with several high‑profile names already priced in.
For the 2028 elected president, Star Sports lists Vice President JD Vance as the favorite at 11/4, followed by Gavin Newsom at 7/2.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is priced at 10/1, with Ocasio‑Cortez at 12/1.
Donald Trump Sr. is listed at 20/1, with a note that he would need to repeal the 22nd Amendment to be eligible.
The field is rounded out by “BAR” at 22/1.
“BAR” refers to a collective category in betting markets that covers all other candidates not named individually, with odds set at that level or higher.
In the Democratic presidential nominee market, Newsom leads at 6/4, followed by Ocasio‑Cortez at 7/1 and Josh Shapiro at 9/1.
Former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is priced at 14/1, while Harris and Kelly are both listed at 16/1. “BAR” follows at 18/1.
Star Sports also lists the Democrats as favorites to win the presidency overall, priced at 4/6, compared with the Republicans at 6/5.
What People Are Saying
William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, said: “Senator Mark Kelly would be an interesting alternative contender looking ahead to the 2028 election. He made it to the final shortlist of running mates for Kamala Harris in 2024 and while he didn't get the nomination that time to be the VP, he has a large amount of political experience.
“His ability to win the state of Arizona will also be a positive, and as somebody who's been battling with Trump, Kelly has a profile as a fighter and a backstory that many would find compelling.
“Kelly is 16/1 for the Democrat nomination and one of a number of candidates with the potential to shorten up, assuming they throw their hat into the ring.”
Senator Mark Kelly told the BBC's Newsnight: “I'm one of the very few engineers, I'm the only person with a graduate degree in engineering the United States Senate. I've got combat experience, that's kind of rare. I spent 25 years in the military.”
He added: “It's a serious decision. I just haven't made it yet.”
What Happens Next
Potential candidates will likely formalize decisions after the 2026 midterms, with many expected to launch 2028 exploratory efforts or campaigns in 2027 as they test message, fundraising and early-state support.
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