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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a majority government following projected victories in three by-elections held Monday that pushed his Liberal Party to 174 seats, two above the 172-seat threshold—in the 343-seat House of Commons.
Liberal candidates have won two Toronto-area ridings, or constituencies, Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale and also the riding of Terrebonne in Quebec, according to projections by Canadian media outlets.
Monday's projected results have given Carney's party its first majority since 2019 and will allow it to pass legislation without opposition support, cementing his hold on power until the next scheduled federal election in October 2029.
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Carney Boosted by the Trump Effect
Carney had taken office in 2025, after a campaign buoyed in part by public anger over Donald Trump’s repeated threats to annex Canada, placing the former head of the Bank of England at the center of a diplomatic and economic fight with the U.S. president.
“Mark Carney with his steady hand, is perceived by many Canadians as someone who can weather the storm, and of course, the storm is largely about the policies and statements coming from the White House,” Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada in Montreal, told Newsweek on Monday.
Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January calling for middle powers in the world to unite was seen as a barely veiled denunciation of Trump following months of the U.S. president calling Canada the 51st state and later imposing tariffs on Canadian goods.
Danielle Martin won University Rosedale while Doly Begum Scarborough Southwest, with both ridings Liberal strongholds. Tatiana Auguste took Terrebonne, according to projections, delivering a victory for the party in a heavily francophone electoral district north of Montreal. The election was a rematch against Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné.
This followed the overturning of last April’s federal election result in which Auguste was declared the winner by a single vote. Sinclair-Desgagné challenged the result after one of her supporters said her special ballot was never counted and won her case at the Supreme Court of Canada.
Since he became prime minister, Carney has announced big increases in military spending as he says Canada can no longer rely on Washington for security and has sought new trade deals in Asia and Europe following the imposition of U.S. tariffs.
Béland said this sense of crisis created an opportunity for Carney to frame himself as the technocrat-in-chief who could take on Trump. This was in contrast to Pierre Poilievre, the conservative leader, whose style is more populist and framed by Liberals as being too close to Trump for comfort.
The Liberals were behind in the polls under the previous prime minister, Justin Trudeau, but Carney turned the party around since he became leader “in a very specific context that is directly related to the return of Donald Trump to the White House,” Béland added.
Five defections from opposition parties including four from the Conservative party had put Liberals in the driving seat ahead of the byelections sparked by MP departures and contested ballot counting.
Former Liberal cabinet minister Bill Blair left his seat to become Canada’s high commissioner to the U.K. and former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland resigned to become an economic development adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Following Monday's success, the Liberals’ majority could grow further amid reports that as many as nine MPs are tempted to cross the floor in the coming months, said Béland. “That's very difficult for Poilievre because that calls into question his leadership if you have quite a few of your MPs who leave your caucus to join the ruling party."
However, Poilievre said on X on Monday that the Liberals had won their majority through "backroom deals" and said those who switched parties had "betrayed the people who voted for them."
Anthony Kevins, senior lecturer in politics and international Studies at Loughborough University, England, said it was likely that many of Poilievre’s own MPs may feel that the best course of action would be for him to be replaced.
“One argument against replacing Poilievre was that, given the Liberal government's minority status, a new federal election might be called at any point, but that argument has now lost most of its weight,” he told Newsweek.
Poilievre has tried to assert the legitimacy of his own mandate as party leader and the illegitimacy of the new Liberal majority, which was essentially made possible by the floor crossings by Conservative MPs since November, rather than the by-elections, he said.
“I would therefore expect Poilievre to attempt to paint the Conservatives under his leadership as necessary watchdogs in the face of an ‘illegitimate’ Liberal majority that the Canadian population did not vote for at the last election,” said Kevins.
“The difficulty, however, is that the floor crossings that made the Liberal majority possible point to issues with his leadership that Conservative MPs may now be less willing to abide,” he added.
Update 04/14/26, 4:30 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 04/14/26, 9:30 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include comment from Anthony Kevins, senior lecturer in politics and international Studies at Loughborough University.
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