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By Mandy Taheri
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s odds of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination have risen amid the Iran war, according to two major prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi.
Why It Matters
President Donald Trump cannot seek reelection in 2028 under the Constitution’s two-term limit, leaving the Republican presidential nomination open. Vice President JD Vance is widely seen as a possible contender, and Marco Rubio has also fueled speculation after previously running for president in 2016.
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Both men are widely viewed as Republicans who would carry forward Trump’s MAGA agenda.
Rubio’s support has risen amid the United States' mass strikes on Iran, which started on February 28. Trump told reporters on Monday that Vance had been "philosophically a little bit different than me" on Iran, adding that the vice president was “maybe less enthusiastic about going." Rubio has repeatedly spoken in support of U.S. Operation Epic Fury.
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What To Know
Two of the biggest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, show Vance leading Rubio in the race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, but also show Rubio’s probability significantly improving in recent days.
Kalshi shows the best probability for Rubio at 32 percent, up from around 20 percent when the war started. The question of the Republican nominee, which has a volume of over $20.6 million, puts Vance’s probability at 38 percent, a drop from 44 percent before the war.
Polymarket shows a greater split between the two Trump officials, putting the probability of Vance at 38.5 percent and Rubio at 26 percent. The question has a volume of over $373 million.
NBC News, citing two anonymous sources, reported that right after the February 28 U.S. strikes on Iran, Trump asked a room full of GOP donors who they would prefer as the party’s 2028 nominee, with attendees reportedly favoring Rubio. However, a former Trump official noted to the outlet that “The Mar-a-Lago donor crew are not JD people.”
“So, I’d say stuff like that is a bit gamed,” the former official added. “If there were a poll taken tomorrow, I’d bet JD is still up by 40 [points], or whatever it is.”
An Emerson College Polling of 454 likely primary voters found Vance leading the Republican primary with Rubio second behind him. Fifty-two percent of respondents backed Vance for the nomination, and 20 percent backed Rubio. The poll, conducted between February 21 and 22, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
A J.L Partners poll of 612 likely GOP primary voters conducted between February 25 and 27 found Vance with 53 percent support and Rubio with 14 percent.
A Pew Research survey of 8,512 people conducted between January 20-26 found that a majority of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of Vance (52 percent), 38 percent view him favorably, and 9 percent said they have not heard of him.
The survey showed Rubio has less name recognition, with 19 percent of respondents saying they have never heard of him. Forty-four percent have an unfavorable view of him, and 34 percent have a favorable view. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: "Republican voters are strongly behind Vance, supporting the Vice President 59% to Rubio’s 19%. Independents who plan on voting in the 2028 Republican Primary also favor Vance, though by a narrower margin of 33% to 23%.”
President Donald Trump said in August when asked if Vance is the MAGA successor: "Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he's the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it's too early obviously to talk about it, but certainly he's doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point."
D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek last month for a related story: "JD Vance has been Donald Trump's heir apparent since Trump switched to him for the running-mate position. Should the relationship between the men sour publicly, then Vance's standing could drop, but otherwise, Vance's real problem will not be MAGA. Vance's problem will be trying to motivate the many voters who usually stay home for elections but who show up for Trump himself. Vance simply doesn't have Donald Trump's hold on the American imagination."
What Happens Next
Neither Rubio nor Vance has announced a 2028 presidential run.
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Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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