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By Jesus Mesa
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emerged as the 2028 frontrunner, surpassing Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance, according to prediction market Kalshi.
Rubio's odds have nearly tripled since December, driven by his visible role in major geopolitical operations—from the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to military strikes on Iran.
Why It Matters
President Donald Trump cannot seek reelection in 2028 under the two-term limit. On the Republican side, the battle for MAGA's inheritance has burst into the open between Rubio and Vance.
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On the Democratic side, Newsom has emerged as the frontrunner, but his position has softened from mid-2025. Prediction markets show both parties entering fluid territory heading into 2028.
What To Know
Two of the biggest prediction markets are showing momentum for Rubio. On Kalshi, he leads at 20 percent, ahead of both Newsom and Vance, who each sit at 18 percent. On Polymarket's presidential election market, the picture is different: JD Vance leads at 21 percent, Newsom follows at 18 percent, and Rubio has risen to 15 percent—a figure that has nearly tripled since December, driven by his visible role in major geopolitical operations.
This surge is striking given Rubio's own public statements. "If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him," he declared in Vanity Fair. Yet despite this endorsement, prediction markets show him gaining ground even as primary polls still favor Vance among Republican voters.
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Rubio's rise represents the first serious challenge to what appeared to be Vance's inevitable path to the Republican nomination. The vice president's dominance stemmed partly from his ideological alignment with Trump and his position as sitting VP—traditionally one of the strongest starting points in a presidential primary. But Vance's positioning has become complicated. During his 2024 campaign, he ran as a hardline anti-interventionist, yet he has now become entangled in the very controversial foreign policy decisions he once opposed.
Rubio, by contrast, has seized the moment. His foreign policy expertise and visible influence have positioned him as a compelling alternative, and Trump's praise has only intensified. The president has gone so far as to declare that Rubio will be remembered as the best secretary of state "in the country's history."
This dynamic has caught the attention of political observers. A Wall Street Journal report revealed that Trump has privately polled advisers, donors, and friends about the political strengths and weaknesses of both his vice president and secretary of state, effectively pitting the two young, ambitious Republicans against each other. The verdict from Trump's inner circle appears clear: he has shown increasing fondness for Rubio, praising him in private and telling associates he believes the former Florida senator is electable.
However, primary polling still tells a different story. An Emerson College poll of 454 likely Republican primary voters, conducted between February 21 and 22, found Vance leading decisively with 52 percent support, while Rubio placed second at 20 percent. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: "Republican voters are strongly behind Vance, supporting the Vice President 59% to Rubio’s 19%. Independents who plan on voting in the 2028 Republican Primary also favor Vance, though by a narrower margin of 33% to 23%.”
D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek last month for a related story: "JD Vance has been Donald Trump's heir apparent since Trump switched to him for the running-mate position. Should the relationship between the men sour publicly, then Vance's standing could drop, but otherwise, Vance's real problem will not be MAGA. Vance's problem will be trying to motivate the many voters who usually stay home for elections but who show up for Trump himself. Vance simply doesn't have Donald Trump's hold on the American imagination."
Alex Patton, GOP Consultant, told Newsweek: "I don't know if either are truly aligned with the MAGA movement. Both have shown incredible ability to morph as needed to obtain, keep, and wield power."
What Happens Next
Neither Rubio nor Vance has announced a 2028 presidential run.
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Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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