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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Tropical weather could pose a threat to parts of the country around Labor Day weekend, with forecasters watching the waters near Florida, the Bahamas and the Gulf for possible storm development.
Key Points
- Tropical Storm Dolly has weakened into a tropical rainstorm but could reorganize north of Cuba during the middle or latter part of the coming week, according to weather forecasters at AccuWeather.
- A separate tropical system may develop from Dolly’s remaining energy or along a front over the Gulf, the meteorologists said.
- Florida could face the earliest effects, while Gulf Coast communities may need to watch for a system entering or forming over warm water.
- No Atlantic tropical cyclones were active at 8 a.m. ET Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
- The NHC's seven-day outlook map, seen below, marks two broad areas where development could occur: one stretching from the northern Caribbean toward the Bahamas, and another in the Gulf.
- Both are shaded yellow, indicating a formation chance below 40 percent. Those areas show where development may be possible, not where a center will travel or where landfall will occur.
- Residents and travelers are not being advised to change plans, but forecasts may shift as the holiday weekend approaches.
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Why It Matters
Atlantic tropical activity often rises as the hurricane season approaches its early September climatological peak. A relatively quiet season does not prevent an individual storm from producing dangerous rain, wind or coastal conditions.
What to Know
Forecasters are monitoring Dolly’s remnants and two potential development zones near the Bahamas, Florida and the Gulf ahead of Labor Day weekend.
Atmospheric conditions may become more supportive of strengthening next week when millions of people could be traveling for the holiday or spending time along the coast. Those living or traveling to Florida or the Gulf Coast may need to follow updated forecasts if an organized system emerges.
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Hostile Conditions Could Weaken Dolly
Dolly is expected to encounter hostile conditions while moving west across the northern Caribbean this weekend and into early next week.
“Wind shear, dry air and friction from land areas in the northern Caribbean will continue to take a toll on Dolly,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said.
Development could become more likely if the system survives that stretch. DaSilva said lower wind shear is forecast north of Cuba, around the Bahamas and near the Florida Straits during the middle to latter part of next week.
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Steering Winds Will Shape the Track
Where the disturbance goes would then depend heavily on steering winds. One possibility is that a dip in the jet stream carries the system away from the mainland and into the western North Atlantic.
A second scenario would allow the Bermuda high, a large area of high pressure over the western Atlantic, to push a reorganized Dolly or a new spinoff storm westward. Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist, described that outcome as “somewhat more likely.”
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Under that scenario, a system could approach Florida by the middle of the week or move into the Gulf later. Another disturbance might instead form independently near the trailing end of a front over the Gulf.
Conditions there will be important. DaSilva said wind shear is forecast to become “very low” over the Gulf in early September, adding that a tropical depression entering or forming in the region could strengthen quickly.
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No U.S. Impact Is Confirmed
That remains a forecast possibility, not a confirmed outcome. At 8 a.m. ET Saturday, the NHC said there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
Marine warnings were nevertheless in effect for the Atlantic and the Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic.
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A Quiet Season Does Not Rule Out Coastal Threats
Seasonal expectations provide broader context but cannot settle the threat to any particular coast. In its August 6 update, NOAA projected seven to 13 named Atlantic storms in 2026, including two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes. Forecasters assigned a 75 percent chance of below-normal activity.
NOAA stressed that its seasonal outlook is not a landfall forecast because coastal impacts are largely determined by shorter-term weather patterns.
The agency’s NHC issues seven-day tropical outlooks, followed by track and intensity forecasts when individual systems become sufficiently organized.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Matthew Robinson and Anthony Murray.
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