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By Joe Edwards
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Americans making Thanksgiving travel plans could face a heightened risk of weather-related disruption across several parts of the country in November, according to forecasters at The Weather Channel. Its forecast comes as experts expect El Niño to shape conditions across the country over the coming months.
The outlet’s November outlook suggests the greatest risks may lie across the Southeast, Florida, the Gulf Coast and Texas, including around major hubs in Atlanta, Orlando, Miami, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. California could also face elevated risks later in the month as millions of Americans prepare to travel for the holiday.
“If you are flying this Thanksgiving, you should already pay close attention to the weather,” The Weather Channel meteorologist Matt Jones told Newsweek. “On top of the expected seasonal headaches, El Niño will influence storm frequency across the southern United States which increases the odds of seeing weather-related delays.
Read More on Weather
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific that can influence temperatures and rainfall patterns worldwide.
In the U.S., typical El Niño effects can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.
Forecasters continue to point to a record-breaking event. El Niño is set to continue intensifying throughout the rest of the year, with chances remaining high for it to become the strongest on record since 1950, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center.
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Areas Facing Thanksgiving Travel Delays Amid El Niño
Much of the country, particularly areas around the Great Lakes, should be warmer than usual in November, which would reduce the likelihood of travelers facing early-season snowstorms in the North, according to The Weather Channel.
California through Texas and the Southeast are forecast to see wetter conditions than usual, increasing the risk of rain and thunderstorms hampering travel, it said.
The outlet has also released a map forecasting which cities across the country face the greatest risks from weather-driven travel delays in November.
It forecasts elevated travel disruption risks across the Southeast, Florida and the Gulf Coast and Texas, affecting key hubs, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Houston, New Orleans and Dallas-Fort Worth. California airports, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose, could also face elevated risks later in the month, it said.
The risk is expected to range from near normal to elevated in the Mid-Atlantic, including Philadelphia, Baltimore and the Washington-area airports, according to The Weather Channel. Near-normal risks are forecast across the Northeast and the Mountain West and Southwest, covering hubs such as Boston, New York, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.
Meanwhile, disruption risks are expected to be below normal in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, including Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis-St. Paul, as well as in the Pacific Northwest, including Seattle and Portland.
The Weather Channel noted that the signals it described were trends rather than specific day-to-day weather forecasts, and that even a warmer and drier month could still feature disruptive weather.
“But the strong El Niño does give us some dependable signals as to how the weather typically behaves around the country this time of year,” the forecaster said.
Jones said: “El Niño impacts the seasonal trends and averages. Over the winter months, El Niño will influence the number of storms and increase the likelihood of seeing weather-related delays. However, El Niño itself isn't going to cause your flight to be delayed or cancelled this Thanksgiving.
“The odds say your flight will be on time this Thanksgiving holiday. However, thanks to El Niño, the odds of weather impacts are increased this year.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Dave Siminoff.
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