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By Hollie Silverman
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Large swaths of the Plains and Southeast face elevated to critical fire weather conditions, with more than 100 record or near record temperatures forecast over the weekend across the Southwest and southern United States, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) on Saturday.
Meanwhile, there have been more than 100 monthly records broken or tied, and more than 700 daily records broken or tied from March 15 to 26, according to the NWS.
The Context
Elevated and critical fire weather can accelerate the ignition and spread of wildfires, particularly when strong winds combine with very low humidity and dry fuels.
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The heat followed what meteorologists describe as a historic March event, with hundreds of city records and numerous statewide March heat records either tied or broken in recent days, raising concerns about compounded wildfire risk and early-season strain on local fire resources.
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What To Know
NWS fire weather outlooks showed elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the southern Plains on Friday shifting into the central Plains and the Southeast through Saturday, as gusty winds, very low relative humidity, and anomalously warm temperatures overlapped with dry fuels.
More than 100 record or near-records maximum temperatures are also forecasted, according to the NWS.
Weather.com reported that over 180 cities set March heat records during an 11-day stretch ending March 26, with at least 16 states appearing to tie or set statewide March records pending review, including highs as extreme as 112 degrees in parts of southeast California and southwest Arizona on March 20.
What Is a Red Flag Warning?
Red flag warnings are issued when a combination of strong winds, low humidity, and warm temperatures could contribute to “extreme fire behavior,” signaling that new fires can start easily and spread rapidly across grasslands and communities near wildlands.
Local NWS offices in the southern Plains and Southwest issued red flag warnings during last weekend’s peak danger and continue to highlight heightened risk into this weekend.
Analyses cited by Yale Climate Connections said the intensity and extent of the March heat would be “virtually impossible without climate change,” noting the burst of daily and monthly records late last week and this week. Final validation of state-level March records typically follows review by meteorologists and climatologists.
The NWS urged residents in affected regions to follow local red flag guidance, avoid common ignition sources, and check localized forecasts and fire weather statements.
What People Are Saying
Senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said in a post on Weather.com on Friday: "The most prolific March heat wave in at least 14 years smashed monthly records in over 180 cities from the Southwest to the Plains and East, may have set new statewide March records in 16 states, and obliterated a national March heat record that stood for over 70 years."
Meteorologists Bob Henson and Jeff Masters on Yale Climate Connections on March 23: “In one of the most astounding global weather events of the century thus far, hundreds of cities across the western and central United States and northern Mexico have endured their hottest March weather on record over the past week.”
What Happens Next
The NWS advised residents to monitor updates from local forecast offices for red flag warnings, wind advisories, and heat alerts, and to follow fire safety guidance.
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