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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrats could flip control of several state legislatures in key battlegrounds in Tuesday's midterm elections, as Nate Silver said the latest rounds of polls from The New York Times point to a “blue tsunami.”
Republicans currently hold a majority of state legislatures. But Democrats are hopeful that could change on Election Day, when the GOP is facing increasingly difficult national headwinds fueled by President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating and voter frustrations with the state of the economy.
The latest ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball gave Democrats a chance of winning legislative majorities in states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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There are more than 6,000 legislative seats up for grabs, according to State Affairs. Nearly all states have an upper chamber, known as the state Senate, and a lower chamber, either the state House or Assembly. Currently, Democrats control 39 of those chambers, while Republicans control 56 chambers. Four others are either tied, nonpartisan or run by a bipartisan coalition. Democratic flips in these key races could have major implications for local and state policy issues over the coming years.
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the Republican State Leadership Committee for comment via email.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats up and down the ballot in the midterms, particularly in cases when the president is unpopular. With Trump’s polling numbers falling to record lows in recent months, Democrats have been increasingly optimistic about their chances of having a strong showing.
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Most Competitive State Legislatures: Full List
Here is a look at the most competitive state legislatures that Democrats could flip, according to the Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings.
- Arizona House (Toss-Up)
- Arizona Senate (Toss-Up)
- Georgia House (Leans Republican)
- Michigan House (Toss-Up)
- Minnesota House (Toss Up)
- New Hampshire House (Leans Democratic)
- New Hampshire Senate (Leans Republican)
- Pennsylvania Senate (Toss-Up)
- Wisconsin Assembly (Toss-Up)
- Wisconsin Senate (Leans Democratic)
Additionally, three Democratic-held legislative bodies are also seen as being potentially competitive—Maine House (Leans Democratic), Michigan Senate (Toss-Up) and the Minnesota Senate (Toss-Up).
Currently, Republicans hold a 33-27 majority in the Arizona House and a 17-13 majority in the Arizona Senate. Additionally, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is favored for reelection in the polls.
The Georgia House has 99 Republicans and 81 Democrats. Its state Senate is seen as less competitive, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying it as Likely Republican.
Republicans control the Michigan House by a 58-52 margin, while Democrats hold a 20-18 margin in the Michigan Senate. Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has led polling in the gubernatorial race.
Minnesota may present the same opportunity as both chambers are seen as competitive. In the House, Democrats hold a 67-66 majority, with one vacancy in a seat previously held by a Republican. The chamber is led by Republican Speaker Lisa Demuth. Democrats hold a 34-33 majority in the Senate.
Democrats may be able to flip at least one chamber in New Hampshire, even as Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte has been leading polls in her reelection bid. Currently, the House is composed of 212 Republicans, 169 Democrats and one independent, while the Senate has 16 Republicans and eight Democrats.
The Pennsylvania Senate is seen as one of the most competitive chambers in the country and is currently made up of 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats. Democrats are seen as favorites in the House, made up of 103 Democrats and 100 Republicans, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying it as Likely Democratic.
Republican control of both chambers in Wisconsin could be at risk. The Assembly is composed of 54 Republicans and 45 Democrats, while the Senate has 18 Republicans and 15 Democrats.
Nate Silver Predicts ‘Blue Tsunami’ in Midterms
Silver on Sunday said that a new round of U.S. Senate polling pointed to a “blue tsunami” for the midterms, though he noted that polling “might be wrong again” in a post to his Substack, Silver Bulletin.
“Polls show that Democrats will win the Senate, perhaps soundly. They might be wrong or they might predict slightly the wrong states to flip. No currently R-held state other than North Carolina counts as ‘Solid D,’” he wrote.
He added that Democrats could face a “modest-sized” polling error benefiting Republicans and still win control of the Senate, which at the beginning of the cycle was seen as a tougher lift because there are few GOP-held seats in states that were close in the 2024 election.
The Times is seen as a top-rated pollster and found Democrats ahead in seven key Senate races including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. It was conducted from October 23 to November 1.
Republicans have been underestimated in polling in past cycles. While polling errors are not necessarily replicated cycle-to-cycle, the accuracy of these public surveys remains a key question heading into Election Day.
What Is Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Ahead of Midterms?
Recent polling has shown that Trump has struggled to recover his approval rating. While he enjoyed stronger numbers at the start of his second term in January 2025, his approval fell as he struggled to tackle perceptions that the economy remains poor. Americans are also continuing to grapple with high prices and inflation. Gas prices rising amid the Iran war has also become a sticking point for the president ahead of the elections.
An AtlasIntel poll, conducted from October 28 to November 1, showed Trump with a -19 net approval rating among 3,566 adults, 59 percent disapproving and 40 percent approving. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
In a Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies poll, sponsored by NBC News, Trump’s approval rating was -20, with 40 percent approving and 60 percent disapproving. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 28 to 30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The latest poll from YouGov and The Economist gave Trump an approval rating of -19, with 58 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving. It polled 1,440 registered voters from October 23 to 26.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.
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