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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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New maps show how little the Russia-Ukraine frontline has changed between May and November, as it emerged there was no diplomatic breakthrough at talks in Abu Dhabi, held six months after Vladimir Putin said the Ukraine War could finish soon.
Following scaled back celebrations in Moscow's Red Square on May 9 marking the end of World War Two, the Russian president said that "I think that the matter is coming to an end."
He suggested he could negotiate new security arrangements for Europe.
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Six months on there is no breakthrough on the frontline or diplomatically in the conflict that will be a half decade old on February 24, 2027.
On Wednesday, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators did agree to a large-scale prisoner exchange on the second and final day of the first talks between the warring sides since February.
U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff also said they would meet Putin in Moscow on Thursday, but a deadlock remains over Moscow's demands for Ukraine's withdrawal from its Donbas region, which is unacceptable for Kyiv.
"On the political questions that will determine whether the war ends, however, there was no visible movement," Mark Temnycky, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank’s Eurasia Center told Newsweek. "Russia continues to demand Ukrainian territory that its forces have been unable to capture."
What Happened Since Putin's Comments?
The Washington, DC think tank's maps from May 9 and November 10 show a slow-changing frontline.
Ukraine launched "Operation Vivaldi" in late May against the Russian salient north of Lyman in the Donetsk Oblast which stopped Moscow from encircling the "Fortress Belt" of highly defended cities Putin is targeting.
By September and October, Russia was also suffering net battlefield territorial losses amid successful Ukrainian counterattacks around Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka and Lyman.
The think tank noted how Moscow made net gains only in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions while losing territory in other sectors, including its priority target of Donetsk, critical for capturing the Donbas.
"Ukraine is in a significantly better position along the front line compared with the previous two years and has largely stabilized the front," military analyst Giorgi Revishvili, who is behind the Russia Analyzed Substack, told Newsweek on Wednesday.
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He said that notably, Ukraine recorded net territorial gains in at least three months of 2026— February, May, and October while Russian personnel losses remain staggering. In October, Russian forces lost a record 54,000 troops.
"Putin and the Russian political-military leadership continue to set unrealistic military objectives, such as capturing the entirety of Donbas by the end of the year," said Revishvili.
"This tendency may stem from a combination of an unwavering determination to achieve maximalist goals and a profoundly distorted understanding of battlefield realities."
Ukrainian counterattacks have stopped Russia's push into Dnipropetrovsk region and destroyed a significant Russian salient that had threatened the northern flank of Slovyansk and the entire Fortress Belt.
"One of the key reasons behind Russia’s failure to achieve its military objectives in 2026 has been Ukraine’s adaptation and growing emphasis on controlling operational depth," said Revishvili.
This saw Ukrainian forces increasingly put pressure on the Russian operational rear, targeting ammunition depots, logistics hubs, command-and-control facilities, headquarters, and drone operator positions.
"This middle strike campaign has had a significant impact on Russian frontline operations, disrupting logistics, degrading command-and-control capabilities, and limiting Russia’s ability to sustain offensive operations," he added.
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What Was Agreed At Abu Dhabi and What Happens Next?
Rustem Umerov, head of the Ukrainian delegation, said the talks that ended Wednesday brought an agreement on a new exchange of prisoners of war, steps toward a broader peace deal and Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.
His X post said that the first step is "to end the war and ensure security guarantees for Ukraine."
However, he said there remained "significant differences" between the two sides.
Temnycky from the Atlantic Council said the talks "delivered roughly what could reasonably be expected."
"The agreement in principle on a large prisoner exchange matters a great deal to Ukrainian families waiting for soldiers and civilians held in Russian captivity, and it shows the trilateral channel can still produce humanitarian results," he added.
Kyiv has hoped the talks could allow a maritime and energy ceasefire and, eventually, for a peace summit at the leaders' level.
Temnycky said the more telling moment may come this week, when Witkoff and Kushner meet with Putin in Russia and then with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ireland.
"If Russia offers nothing new, the United States will face a choice between continuing talks for their own sake and raising the cost of Russia’s intransigence," Temnycky said.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Cannon and Trevor Davies
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