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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Russia is likely to increase its sabotage attacks along NATO's eastern flank, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) whose map shows the spread of suspected hybrid warfare acts this year.
The assessment by the analysis group follows Poland's authorities launching a large-scale security operation this week along its border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
"The events on the Polish-Russian border follow the broader pattern of intensified Russian hybrid operations against NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Poland," ACLED's Eastern Europe Analyst, Maksym Beznosiuk told Newsweek.
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Moscow has repeatedly denied that it is conducting hybrid warfare which involves a mixture of military and non-military methods below the threshold of open conflict.
Russia is also suspected of staging sabotage actions in Estonia, Slovakia and Germany in recent months, as ACLED's data shows. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.
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What Happened by the Polish Border?
Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave, geographically separated from the main territory of Russia. Its location on the Baltic Sea between NATO and EU members makes it a potential flash point for any future clashes between Moscow and the alliance.
Reports in recent weeks have highlighted the strategic significance of the exclave which hosts Russian military and intelligence infrastructure.
Reuters reported last month that Moscow had warned NATO it would use nuclear weapons if the alliance enforced a blockade of Kaliningrad.
German media reported that a radar complex in the exclave with a surveillance range of around 1,800 miles is almost complete.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that police units were sent to the border with Kaliningrad on Tuesday following information of "disturbing movement" on the frontier.
He added that people with flashlights were spotted in the border area and that intelligence pointed to possible incursions into Polish territory in the first half of November.
Polish guards and intelligence services officers were deployed near Sepopol, Warmian-Masurian province, and a special command center has also been set up at the National Police Headquarters.
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ACLED said that so far this year, it has recorded 20 suspected Russian activity events involving sabotage, intrusions, drone surveillance, or arson attacks throughout Poland.
Transportation and defense infrastructure were targeted in half of these attacks.
"Poland is likely to be increasingly targeted by Russian hybrid activities against military, aviation, and overall critical infrastructure, particularly in border regions, over the next six months," Beznosiuk said.
Where in Europe Is the Hybrid Campaign Taking Place?
A report released by ACLED last week outlined Russia's hybrid activity across Europe between January 1 and October 22.
It said Russia had conducted more destructive events than the previous year, which have included targeting defense and communications infrastructure.
It said that given NATO’s lack of clear thresholds, Russia views hybrid escalation as the most practical tool for sustaining pressure on Europe and substantially weakening European support for Ukraine.
The report also noted how there have been an increase in drone incursions, particularly in Romania and Moldova, and its map shows suspected hybrid actions on defense and logistics in other parts of Europe. These include an explosive-laden drone near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane at Leipzig-Halle airport on August 4.
Another incident was a fire at the Milrem Robotics facility in Tallinn, Estonia on August 15, and there was also a thwarted arson attack on a drone manufacturing site in Haniska, Slovakia.
Beznosiuk believes that Moscow will continue to increasingly rely on disposable agents to conduct hybrid activities, which could range from surveillance of critical infrastructure assets to sabotage and arson attacks across Poland.
"The overt or covert use of its military forces to instill fear, pull NATO resources, and provoke is not to be excluded," Beznosiuk said.
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov rejected European accusations that Russia was waging a hybrid war, saying on September 29 that Moscow was responding to a direct threat to Russian security posed by the West's support of Ukraine.
On November 3, he framed Poland and its Baltic neighbors as the aggressors, saying they were the “most active promoters” of Europe’s “reactionary and aggressive” policies towards Russia.
However, since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO's eastern flank has increased its border security.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have reported repeated drone incursions and GPS jamming incidents linked to the war.
Meanwhile, Finland, which joined NATO in 2023 after decades of non-alignment, has erected a 120-mile fence near the Nuijamaa border crossing point.
Trump Teases Deal On Ukraine
There has been no breakthrough in negotiations to end the war, but the U.S. will mediate Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi starting on November 10, with security guarantees and de-escalation on the agenda.
Trump met with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev on Thursday ahead of the talks and the U.S. president said "there's going to be an agreement."
He added: It's going to be a big agreement, and it's going to involve more than Ukraine. I could even say it might involve all of Europe. Everyone is going to be thrilled."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Cristina Diciu.
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