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By Andrew Stanton
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As the 2026 midterm elections heat up, Democrats hope to flip several Republican-held governor seats in a favorable national environment but are still on defense in states President Donald Trump won in the most recent presidential race.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, which are viewed as a referendum on the sitting president.
Trump’s approval rating declined in recent months over economic concerns tied to the cost of living and gas prices amid the Iran war, giving Democrats hope about their chances to flip key governorships in November. Polls and forecasts suggest many of these races will be close, and Republicans may be poised to flip at least one seat.
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What to Know
- Kansas is currently the most likely gubernatorial seat to flip in 2026, according to the Cook Political Report and prediction markets.
- Five states—Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Iowa and Nevada—are rated as toss‑ups, as new polling on Wednesday shows close races in Iowa and Ohio.
- National economic concerns and Trump’s approval rating are shaping the midterm landscape.
Which Governor Races Are Most Likely to Flip in November?
Kansas is viewed as the most likely state to flip. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly cannot run again due to term limits, and Republicans generally have an advantage there, despite Kelly’s 2018 and 2022 victories.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as Lean Republican, making it the only state projected to flip in the midterms. However, it’s still viewed as being competitive. Prediction markets also favor Republicans, whose odds of flipping the state stood at 71 percent on Kalshi and 67 percent on Polymarket Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, five races are rated as toss-ups by Cook, including Democratic-held seats in Arizona and Wisconsin, and Republican-held seats in Georgia, Iowa and Nevada. These also present top flip opportunities in November.
Cook rates Ohio’s gubernatorial race as Lean Republican, and Michigan’s as Lean Democratic. While the incumbent parties have an advantage, they are still viewed as potential flips.
Olivia Davis, a spokesperson for the Democratic Governors Association, told Newsweek it is “going on offense” to flip seats this November.
“Our candidates in states like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and more are gaining momentum because they’re running on lowering costs and making life better in their states, while Republicans own the higher costs and health care cuts hurting families. As Trump continues to create chaos in DC, the stakes have never been higher but the DGA has the winning record to get the job done,” she said.
Newsweek also reached out to the Republican Governors Association for comment via email.
New Poll Shows Democrats Competitive in Iowa, Ohio Governor Races
A new poll from The New York Times and Siena released Wednesday suggested that Democrats are either leading or in striking distance of flipping the Iowa and Ohio governorships.
The Times poll is viewed as a gold standard, suggesting these races may be especially competitive.
In Iowa, Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand—presently the only statewide Democrat in the former swing state—held a single-point lead over Republican Zach Lahn, a businessman.
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Sand’s support stood at 48 percent, compared to Lahn’s 47 percent, according to the poll.
Ohio’s gubernatorial race is also expected to be competitive, according to the poll. Democrat Amy Acton, former director of the Ohio Department of Health, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who rose to prominence during his 2024 presidential bid, were tied at 47 percent.
The poll is striking because it suggests Democrats are on track to make competitive races in two states that drifted toward Republicans over the past decade.
Former President Barack Obama won both of the states in 2008 and 2012, but Trump won them in each of his three presidential runs, including by double digits in 2024. Republicans flipped those states by gaining ground among rural white voters—but Democrats believe the economy could make them competitive again in November.
The poll surveyed 3,659 likely voters across six states from June 15 to 29, 2026.
What Polls, Forecasts Show in Most Competitive Races
Arizona
Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is running for reelection in Arizona, once viewed as a more conservative state that has emerged as a battleground over recent cycles. It backed former President Joe Biden in 2020 before supporting Trump in 2024 by more than 5 points.
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs holds a primary polling lead against other Republicans, including his fellow U.S. Representative David Schweikert.
But early polling gives Hobbs an advantage in the general.
A Noble Predictive Insights poll, which surveyed 996 registered voters from May 5 to 7, 2026, showed Hobbs up 4 points with 41 percent support to Biggs’ 37 percent. It had a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
An earlier TIPP Insights poll showed Hobbs up 10 points, at 48 percent, to Biggs’ 38 percent. It was conducted among 1,159 likely voters from April 20 to 24, 2026.
Trump’s victory in Arizona was, in part, fueled by his support among Hispanic voters, a bloc that once solidly backed Democrats but has become more competitive. But there are signs that support has cracked ahead of November—a Pew Research Center poll released in May found that only 22 percent of Hispanic voters approve of his job performance.
If that poll holds true in November and there is a reversion among Hispanic voters back to Democrats, Hobbs may benefit in her reelection bid.
Hobbs had a 76 percent chance of holding the seat on Kalshi and a 78 percent chance on Polymarket as of Wednesday.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Georgia
Although Georgia has not elected a Democratic governor in more than two decades, it’s become more dynamic as Atlanta and its suburbs have grown and drifted leftward. The contours of the race are drawn—former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, will face off against Republican healthcare executive Rick Jackson in what is expected to be a closely watched race.
Early polling points to a competitive race but gives Bottoms an advantage.
A Concord Public Opinion Partners poll showed Bottoms with 53 percent compared to Jackson’s 37 percent. It was sponsored by Education Reform Now Advocacy, a Democratic-aligned group, and surveyed 510 likely voters from May 30 to June 2.
An Echelon Insights poll, which surveyed 407 likely voters from April 3 to 9, pointed to a close race—giving Bottoms 49 percent compared to Jackson’s 43 percent support.
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Prediction markets view the race as very close, with Jackson having a 51 percent chance of winning on Polymarket and a 54 percent chance on Kalshi.
Turnout will be critical to the general election outcome. Democrats perform best in Georgia when turnout among Black voters in Atlanta and across the state is strong—as was the result when Biden won in 2020. But if low-propensity Trump voters are motivated to head to the polls, that could make it harder for Bottoms to flip the seat.
Iowa
As the poll from the Times gives Sand a slight lead, he is also favored in prediction markets; his chances stood at 61 percent on Kalshi and 64 percent on Polymarket.
That marks a shift toward Democrats from last year; in July 2025, Republicans had a 68 percent chance of flipping Iowa, but that advantage slipped to only 51 percent in January 2026, and the market began favoring Sand in April.
Democrats believe Sand, who has been able to win Iowa despite its rightward shift, will be a strong candidate in November. The national environment may also boost Democrats in Iowa, a state that has been hit particularly hard by tariffs.
Earlier polling also gave Sand a lead; a Cygnal poll showed him up with 48 percent to Lahn’s 43 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from June 16 to 19 and had a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
Trump won Iowa by about 13 points.
Kansas
Analysts view Kansas as the state most likely to flip, but public polling is not yet available for the general election. Candidates have not been selected, as the primary will not take place until August 4.
Governor Kelly has been able to win in the past, but a major question that looms over the race is whether another Democrat can replicate the bipartisan appeal that helped her win statewide.
Democratic candidates include state Senator Ethan Corson, state Senator Cindy Holscher and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog.
Numerous Republicans are running, including Senate President Ty Matterson, former state Representative Charlotte O’Hara, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and Secretary of State Scott Schwab.
Michigan
In battleground Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is viewed as the likely Democratic candidate, while the Republican field remains fluid in the race to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Trump endorsed Representative John James, who is set to face off against former Attorney General Mike Cox and businessman Perry Johnson in the primary.
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A Mitchell Research poll gave Benson an advantage against all three Republicans.
In a hypothetical matchup, James received 40 percent to Benson’s 51 percent; Johnson received 42 percent to Benson’s 50 percent, while Cox received 41 percent to Benson’s 48 percent. The poll surveyed 827 likely voters from June 11 to 13, 2026, and had a margin of error of ±3.41 percentage points.
Democrats had an 84 percent chance of winning the seat on both Kalshi and Polymarket on Wednesday. Democrats’ chances in both markets increased in May after Mike Duggan, an independent who served as Detroit’s mayor, ended his campaign. On May 20, a day before he dropped out, Democrats’ chances stood at 67 percent on Kalshi.
Nevada
Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo is viewed as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican governor.
He leads a state Trump won by about 3 points and is set to face off against Democrat Aaron Ford in November. The race is competitive, but Lombardo is viewed as a popular, moderate governor, and Republicans believe he is positioned to withstand a blue wave.
A Global Strategy Group survey, conducted from May 5 to 11 among 700 likely voters, gave Lombardo 45 percent support compared to Ford’s 42 percent. It had a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points.
A Noble Predictive Insights poll showed Lombardo with a single-point lead. His support stood at 39 percent compared to Ford’s 38 percent in that poll. It surveyed 845 registered voters from March 10 to 13 and had a margin of error of ±3.37 percentage points.
Nevada is the only state Trump won in 2024 that he lost in 2016 and 2020, and like in Arizona, his win was powered by a strong showing among Hispanic and Latino voters who will again be critical in November.
Ohio
Although Ohio has become more Republican, Democrats believe they have a chance to flip the gubernatorial race this year, as polls show a close race. Incumbent GOP Governor Mike DeWine is not running for reelection in a state Trump won by about 11 points.
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An AARP poll showed Acton up 3 points with 47 percent support to Ramaswamy’s 44 percent. It surveyed 800 likely voters from June 14 to 16.
Another recent poll from Fox News, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, showed Acton up a single point with 50 percent to Ramaswamy’s 49 percent. It surveyed 1,015 registered voters from May 28 to June 1.
Prediction markets also show a close race; Ramaswamy’s chances stood at 53 percent on Kalshi and 51 percent on Polymarket as of Wednesday.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin was the closest state in the 2024 election, backing Trump by less than a single point over former Vice President Kamala Harris. Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, said he would not run for a third term, leaving open a seat both parties believe will be competitive.
The primary elections will be held on August 11.
On the Republican side, Representative Tom Tiffany is viewed as the likely nominee.
But several Democrats are running in a fluid primary. Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, incumbent Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, state Representative Francesca Hong, state Senator Keida Roys and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley are among the candidates vying for the party’s nomination.
Although forecasters consider the race a toss-up, prediction markets give Democrats an advantage. Democrats had a 72 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 76 percent chance on Polymarket.
What Happens Next
Upcoming primaries in states like Kansas, Michigan and Wisconsin could determine how competitive these races become in November.
Polling and fundraising will be closely watched to gauge the outcomes of these races. Meanwhile, turnout patterns, shifts in Trump’s approval rating and the state of the economy could shape the nature of these races.
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