...
By Nick Mordowanec
Staff Writer
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
The Ukrainian summer counteroffensive is not going as successfully as Kyiv had hoped, with forces attempting to find weaknesses in the Russian military's restrengthened line of defense along the vast border separating the countries.
Ukrainian fighters began the counterattack one month ago today, participating in some 25 battles over the course of a day along the eastern and southern borders, as well as near Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region, liberating a handful of villages at that juncture.
Compared to the previous counteroffensive from September 6 to October 2, during which Ukraine retook over 500 settlements and more than 4,600 square miles of territory, this current one is an exhibit of stalled progress described by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as "slower than desired."
Read More
Russian MP Admits Funding Ukraine War Led to Ruble’s Collapse3 min read
Prigozhin Breaks Deal With Putin After Wagner Mutiny5 min read
Kremlin May Be Trying to ‘Calm’ Troops With Putin, Prigozhin Meeting3 min read
Between the spring and early summer, Russian forces were able to ready themselves and fortify their border positions along that 600-mile front while the Ukrainian military took time to plan its next punches. It has allowed Russia to push back and make its own gains along the front.
Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries via email on Monday for comment.
Noel Mikkelsen, a geospatial researcher at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, D.C., think tank, told Newsweek that Ukrainian forces have liberated seven settlements and gained an estimated 255 square kilometers since they began their counteroffensive operation between June 4 and July 10.
He said the results so far do not indicate "poor performance" because the Ukrainian military now prioritizes degrading Russian manpower and equipment rather than attempting large-scale maneuvers to quickly regain lost territory. For the Ukrainians, that conservation of manpower comes with a trade-off—slower territorial gains.
"The Ukrainian military has not yet committed the vast majority of the force it prepared for the counteroffensive and are using small units—platoons and company elements—to probe the front line to identify weak spots," Mikkelsen said. "This course of action allows Ukrainian forces to proceed cautiously and avoid high casualties due to land mines and other obstacles that Russian forces have arrayed up to 30 kilometers deep into Russian-occupied territory on the southern front line.
Mikkelsen continued: "The Ukrainian military's chosen cautious approach additionally minimizes risk to Ukraine's larger prepared force, which can help preserve the Ukrainian military's mass, which Ukraine will need for a broader future counteroffensive push."
Zelensky's comments may be related to a lack of additional weaponry from the West, Mikkelsen added, which could have affected outcomes in the past month or so.
Retired U.S. Brigadier General Mark Kimmit told The Wall Street Journal that "there hasn't been a significant amount of progress" for Ukrainian forces as they try to "figure out the soft spots" along the front.
Bakhmut remains a high military priority for both sides, Kimmit said, due to a successful Ukrainian push possibly allowing forces to trace a path directly toward the Russian border.
Zaporizhzhia and Berdyansk are also pivotal, he said, notably the former due to it being home to a nuclear power plant.
...
Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukrainian forces successfully continue to advance in the Bakhmut direction and with operations in the Berdyansk and Melitopol areas, according to a July 9 assessment by ISW, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.
Two days earlier, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces advanced more than 1 kilometer on Bakhmut's southern flank. Russian sources said Ukraine also attacked in the western Donetsk and western Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
While those advances have been attempted, the Russian Ministry of Defense and Kremlin-affiliated military bloggers, or milbloggers, have said Ukrainian attacks in the western Zaporizhzhia oblast—conducted by forces stationed as part of small groups**—**are targeting rear Russian positions, warehouses and infrastructure.
An interactive map published by the ISW shows Russia actually seizing control of more areas than Ukraine during the current fighting, including major regions such as the Donetsk Oblast, Mariupol and Kherson—the latter of which has been a combat hotbed.
The UK Ministry of Defence reported on July 6 that Russia's defenses around Bakhmut are "now largely formed around airborne regiments normally stationed in western Russia, who normally act as an elite rapid reaction force in case of tensions with NATO."
Update 7/11/23, 12:08 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from Noel Mikkelsen of the Institute for the Study of War.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines