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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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One week before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump is underwater in 39 states and every major battleground, according to new polling.
The figures come from Civiqs’ rolling tracker of registered voters, based on 138,839 responses collected between January 20, 2025, and October 26, 2026.
A Newsweek analysis compares the latest ratings with those recorded when Trump began his second term, with net approval calculated as approval minus disapproval.
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Nationally, 34 percent approve of Trump’s job performance and 60 percent disapprove, giving him a net approval rating of -26.
Top Takeaways
- Trump has positive net approval in 10 states, while Montana is evenly divided.
- Michigan leads negative battleground states at -25, followed by Georgia at -24 and Nevada and Wisconsin at -23.
- Kentucky has recorded the largest decline since January 2025, falling 34 points from +23 to -11.
- North Dakota is now Trump’s strongest state at +17, followed by Wyoming at +15.
- Trump is underwater in six states hosting closely watched Senate races.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval does not predict individual election results, but it helps define the national environment in which candidates compete.
With control of Congress at stake on November 3, Trump’s standing could influence turnout, campaign messaging and Republicans’ prospects in closely contested states.
Trump has embarked on a nationwide campaign blitz, visiting Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Michigan within the past week and urging supporters to "pretend I’m on the ballot," making his approval ratings particularly relevant to the Republican candidates relying on his coalition to turn out.
Use the map below to explore Trump’s net approval rating in every state one week before the midterms.
Ten States Still Rate Trump Positively
Trump’s remaining positive ratings are concentrated in Republican territory.
Arkansas stands at +9 and West Virginia at +8, while Idaho and Oklahoma both record +4.
South Dakota and Utah are at +3, Alabama at +2 and Kansas at +1.
Montana is the only tied state, with 46 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.
Even among Trump’s strongest states, his position is considerably weaker than in January 2025.
His net approval has fallen 32 points in Wyoming, 27 points in West Virginia and 21 points in Arkansas.
What the Demographic Data Shows
The demographic breakdown helps explain the state-level map.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, 21 percent approve of Trump while 71 percent disapprove, producing a 50-point gap.
Among those aged 35 to 49, the split is 26 percent approval to 66 percent disapproval.
Older voters are less negative, although Trump remains underwater.
Voters aged 50 to 64 divide 43 percent approval to 51 percent disapproval, while those aged 65 and older divide 43 percent to 52 percent.
Independents disapprove by 66 percent to 26 percent, while Republicans approve by 78 percent to 11 percent.
Female voters disapprove by 66 percent to 29 percent, compared with a 54-to-39 split among male voters.
Education remains another dividing line.
Trump’s approval stands at 24 percent among postgraduates, 32 percent among college graduates and 37 percent among noncollege graduates, with disapproval leading in all three groups.
Where Approval Has Fallen the Most
Trump’s net approval is lower in every state than it was on January 20, 2025.
The sharpest declines include:
- Kentucky: down 34 points, from +23
- Wyoming: down 32 points, from +47
- Idaho: down 30 points, from +34
- Ohio: down 27 points, from +8
- Oklahoma: down 27 points, from +31
- Tennessee: down 27 points, from +25
- West Virginia: down 27 points, from +35
- Iowa: down 26 points, from +6
- Montana: down 25 points, from +25
- Texas: down 25 points, from +6
- Mississippi: down 24 points, from +15
Many of the largest declines have occurred in states that initially gave Trump comfortable positive ratings, rather than in Democratic strongholds where opposition was already deeply established.
...
Every Major Battleground Is Underwater
Trump remains underwater across the battleground map with one week of campaigning left.
His latest net ratings are:
- Arizona: -19
- Florida: -14
- Georgia: -24
- Michigan: -25
- Nevada: -23
- North Carolina: -17
- Ohio: -19
- Pennsylvania: -21
- Wisconsin: -23
Several were positive or evenly divided when Trump began his second term. His net approval has since fallen 27 points in Ohio, 23 points in Florida and Nevada, and 17 points in North Carolina.
These figures do not measure support for individual congressional candidates. They do, however, show the political conditions Republicans face as the campaign enters its final week.
Six Senate Races To Watch
Trump is underwater in Maine at -29, Michigan at -25, Iowa at -20, Ohio and Texas at -19, and Alaska at -13.
The Cook Political Report rates all six races as tossups, meaning either party has a good chance of winning.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives Democrats a clearer advantage in Alaska and Michigan, rating both Lean Democratic, while treating Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas as tossups.
Texas
Democrat James Talarico, a state representative and former public-school teacher, faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the open seat.
At the time of writing, the RealClearPolling average had Talarico ahead by 1.5 points, while Silver Bulletin put his advantage at 2.4 points and Decision Desk HQ gave him a 56 percent probability.
...
Maine
Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and fifth-generation logger, is challenging Republican Senator Susan Collins as she seeks a sixth term.
The RealClearPolling average had Jackson ahead by 1.4 points, compared with a 2.2-point Silver Bulletin lead, while Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 52 percent chance at the time of writing.
...
Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, faces former Representative Mike Rogers, a veteran Michigan Republican, for the open seat.
At the time of writing, the RealClearPolling average gave El-Sayed a 1.9-point lead, while Silver Bulletin put his advantage at 2.8 points and Decision Desk HQ gave him a 67 percent chance of winning.
...
Ohio
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is attempting a return to the Senate against Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat previously held by JD Vance.
Brown led by 3.3 points in the RealClearPolling average and by 3.7 points in Silver Bulletin, although Decision Desk HQ gave him a narrower 56 percent probability, as of October 27, at 4 a.m. ET.
...
Alaska
Former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice election.
The RealClearPolling average gave Peltola a 0.8-point advantage, while Silver Bulletin put her ahead by 3.8 points and Decision Desk HQ rated the contest Lean Democratic, giving Peltola a 61 percent chance of winning at the time of writing.
...
Iowa
Democrat Josh Turek, a state representative and two-time Paralympic wheelchair-basketball gold medalist, faces Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, a former TV presenter, for the open seat.
Hinson currently leads by 0.6 points in the RealClearPolling average, while Silver Bulletin gives Turek a 0.8-point advantage, and Decision Desk HQ rates the race as a toss-up, with Hinson given a 55 percent chance of winning compared with 45 percent for Turek, illustrating how finely balanced it remains.
...
Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Negative
Trump’s weakest ratings remain concentrated in Democratic territory.
Hawaii records the lowest net approval at -58, followed by Maryland at -52 and Vermont at -51. California and Massachusetts both stand at -47.
Connecticut, Rhode Island and Washington register -42. New York and Oregon are both at -39.
The movement in these states has generally been smaller than in Republican territory because Trump began his second term with approval already deeply underwater.
What the White House Says
The White House has emphasized Trump’s role as leader of the Republican Party and argued that his record will help motivate voters in the midterms.
In an emailed statement to Newsweek, spokesman Davis Ingle described Trump as the GOP’s "unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator." He added that the president is committed to preserving Republican majorities in Congress.
Ingle pointed to tax cuts, prescription-drug costs, border security, energy production, private-sector employment and retirement accounts as evidence of the administration’s record.
He framed the election as a choice between Trump’s "winning, commonsense agenda" and what he called Democrats’ "extreme liberal policies and obstruction."
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and James Debens
Register for our November 10 discussion, 'Newsweek Webinar: How the Politics of AI Could Shape Midterms,' which will examine how AI policy played in key races, data centers, lobbying and the political lines that emerged.
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