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By Sam Stevenson and Matthew Robinson
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New polling mapped nationwide shows President Donald Trump is underwater in 19 states he won in 2024, as well as dozens of Republican‑held congressional districts.
Falling below majority approval across traditionally friendly territory signals mounting electoral risk ahead of the midterm cycle.
Republican incumbents in both competitive and deep‑red seats could face a tougher political environment if the softness persists, an expert has told Newsweek.
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Why It Matters
Approval slipping in states Trump carried just two years ago underscores how narrowly his coalition is holding together.
Even modest erosion in key voter blocs can have real consequences in a closely divided House.
What To Know
A new map released as part of Verasight’s Strength In Numbers project shows Trump’s approval rating has fallen below 50 percent in 19 states he won in the 2024 presidential election.
The data also shows Trump is underwater in 31 Republican‑held congressional districts where the 2024 presidential margin was within 10 points, highlighting vulnerability not just in swing seats but across a widening geographic footprint.
The map visualizes approval across the country using Census Public Use Microdata Areas, offering a granular look at where support is holding — and where it is not.
District Data Shows Broader Republican Exposure
Zooming in further, district‑level estimates shared with Newsweek show the scale of the challenge facing Republicans more broadly.
Trump is currently below majority approval in 135 GOP‑held House and Senate districts nationwide, including several he won comfortably in 2024.
“What can be said with confidence is where Trump stands today,” Ben Leff, CEO and co‑founder of Verasight, told Newsweek.
“The fact that this many Republican-held districts are now below majority support suggests a broad-based softening over time, rather than a single isolated shift.”
The polling is based on interviews conducted between May 2025 and March 2026 as part of the monthly Strength In Numbers/Verasight survey, which includes more than 12,000 responses nationwide.
Using multilevel regression and post‑stratification, the model estimates approval ratings at the state, district, and neighborhood level, excluding respondents who selected “don’t know.”
Trump’s Approval Rating Nationally
Nationally, Trump’s job approval stands at 39.8 percent when undecided voters are removed from the calculation. While that figure masks sharp geographic variation, it places the president well below majority support overall.
Approval is highest in states such as West Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and North Dakota, where support exceeds 50 percent.
On the other end of the spectrum, Trump posts his weakest numbers in deep‑blue states, Hawaii, Massachusetts, California, and New York, and the District of Columbia, where approval drops into the teens.
The erosion inside Republican‑leaning districts does not appear to stem from a sudden collapse so much as a slow, cumulative softening, according to Leff.
“Deep-red seats are less a sudden collapse and more a gradual softening across parts of Trump’s coalition,” he said.
“You don’t need large‑scale defection to move the numbers. Modest slippage among key groups is enough to pull overall approval below 50 percent.”
Demographic Fault Lines Emerge in Key Districts
Demographics help explain how that dynamic unfolds.
Trump continues to perform better among older voters and those without a college degree, but his support falls sharply among younger and college‑educated voters.
Approval among voters aged 18 to 29 sits in the high 20s, while approval among college‑educated voters remains below 40 percent.
That drop‑off is especially consequential in places where district margins are already narrow.
Among competitive Republican‑held districts now showing approval in the high 30s, the composition of the electorate matters as much as overall sentiment.
“There aren’t direct district‑level comparisons to GOP incumbents in the current dataset,” Leff said. “But what the data does show is that Trump’s support is relatively narrow and highly segmented. He performs significantly worse among women, younger voters, and college‑educated voters — groups that are more prevalent in battleground districts.”
And this creates a "structural challenge" for the president in those areas, according to Leff.
Local incumbents, by contrast, often have more room to maneuver, he explained.
While the polling does not directly measure how Republican House members are faring in those districts, the structure of the electorate helps explain why Trump’s approval is sagging there, even when the seat remains in GOP hands.
Verasight’s estimates also underline how polarized Trump’s support has become.
White voters without college degrees remain his strongest bloc, while college‑educated voters, younger adults, women, and voters of color consistently register lower approval.
The data does not yet provide a district‑by‑district timeline showing exactly when seats fell below majority support. Still, Leff said the breadth of the shift suggests something broader than a single moment or issue.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.
"No other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more. The president has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."
What Happens Next
Verasight told Newsweek that additional polling, including deeper analysis of specific voter groups, is expected in the coming weeks.
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