10
Loading video...
By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
As Americans mark Labor Day and the traditional start of the fall campaign season, new polling shows President Donald Trump entering the final stretch before the midterm elections, with approval ratings that have weakened substantially since the start of his second term.
The data comes from Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. A Newsweek analysis compares Trump's approval rating on September 4, 2026, with where it stood when he returned to office on January 20, 2025, using net approval calculated as approve minus disapprove.
Related Story
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Nosedives With Women
Read More on Politics
Nationally, Trump stands at 34 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval, giving him a net approval rating of minus 26.
The state-level picture follows the same pattern, with support strongest in deep-red states but negative across every major battleground.
Key Points
- Trump is underwater in every major swing state on Labor Day, with deficits widening in several battlegrounds.
- Kentucky, Ohio, Texas and Nevada have all seen declines of more than 25 points since the start of Trump's second term.
- Only three states still give Trump a double-digit positive net approval rating.
- Young voters, independents and postgraduates remain among the groups most negative toward the president.
Why It Matters
Labor Day has traditionally marked the point when voters begin paying closer attention to fall campaigns.
With just weeks until Election Day, presidential approval ratings can help shape the environment in which congressional and statewide races are fought.
Use the map below to explore where Trump's approval rating stands in each state on Labor Day.
Deep Red States Still Offer Trump's Strongest Support
Trump's best numbers remain concentrated in states that heavily backed him in 2024.
Wyoming now posts the highest net approval rating at +15, followed by West Virginia at +13 and North Dakota at +10. Alabama stands at +5, while Idaho and South Dakota register +4.
Those states remain positive, but each has moved significantly lower since January 2025.
Wyoming has fallen from +47 to +15. West Virginia has declined from +35 to +13. North Dakota has slipped from +34 to +10.
Even in states where Trump remains above water, much of the cushion that existed at the start of his term has disappeared.
Related Story
Happy Labor Day From Your Robot Overlords
Every Major Battleground State Is Underwater
The most politically important trend remains Trump's standing in the states likely to determine control of Congress.
Trump is underwater in every major swing state:
- Arizona: -18
- Florida: -13
- Georgia: -25
- Nevada: -25
- North Carolina: -18
- Ohio: -19
- Pennsylvania: -20
- Wisconsin: -19
Several were positive, or even when Trump returned to office.
Florida has moved from +9 to -13. Ohio has fallen from +8 to -19. Nevada has shifted from 0 to -25. North Carolina has dropped from 0 to -18.
Taken together, the figures suggest Trump enters the fall campaign season in a weaker position across the battleground map than when his second term began.
What the Demographic Data Shows
The demographic breakdown helps explain the state-level pattern.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, just 21 percent approve of Trump's performance while 72 percent disapprove. Approval among voters aged 35 to 49 stands at 27 percent compared with 64 percent disapproval.
Independents remain heavily negative, with 27 percent approving and 65 percent disapproving. Women disapprove by a 65-to-29 margin, while men are somewhat more divided at 54 percent disapprove and 39 percent approve.
Education remains another major dividing line. Among postgraduates, Trump's approval stands at 23 percent while 72 percent disapprove. Among non-college graduates, approval rises to 37 percent but remains below disapproval.
Where Approval Has Fallen the Most
Every state in the tracker now has a lower net approval rating than it did on January 20, 2025.
The biggest declines have often occurred in Republican-leaning states.
Among the largest drops:
- Kentucky: +23 to -11 (down 34 points)
- Oklahoma: +31 to +2 (down 29 points)
- Wyoming: +47 to +15 (down 32 points)
- Ohio: +8 to -19 (down 27 points)
- Texas: +6 to -20 (down 26 points)
- Nevada: 0 to -25 (down 25 points)
- Florida: +9 to -13 (down 22 points)
- Iowa: +6 to -18 (down 24 points)
The sharp declines in traditionally Republican territory suggest support has softened not only in competitive states but also among some voters who initially gave Trump strong backing.
...
Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Negative
Trump's weakest states continue to be concentrated in Democratic strongholds.
Maryland posts the lowest net approval rating at -54. Vermont follows at -53, while Massachusetts stands at -49. California is at -45, Connecticut at -44 and Washington at -42.
New York and Oregon both register -41.
In these states, opposition was already deeply entrenched when Trump took office and remains so today.
Public Polling Points to a Challenging Landscape
The polling suggests Trump enters Labor Day in a substantially weaker position than when he returned to office and in a weaker position than before his first midterm election.
At a comparable point before the 2018 midterms, Civiqs recorded Trump at 43 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval, a net rating of minus 10.
Related Story
Donald Trump’s Oil Price Promise Was Just Struck by Houthis Defying Hegseth
Today, Trump stands at minus 26 nationally.
While approval ratings do not directly predict election outcomes, they remain one of the most closely watched indicators of the political environment facing candidates in competitive races.
What the White House Says
The White House has consistently argued that polling should be viewed against the backdrop of Trump's 2024 election victory.
Spokesman Davis Ingle has repeatedly pointed to what the administration describes as progress on jobs, inflation and housing affordability.
In comments the White House has used in response to multiple polling inquiries, Ingle said: “The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”
Ingle added that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump,” arguing that Trump is “working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.”
The administration maintains that “this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Kate Nalepinski and Cristina Diciu.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines