...

By Sam Stevenson

Associate News Editor

0

Share

Newsweek is a Trust Project member

See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.

Two days after President Donald Trump marked his 80th birthday, new polling shows a state-by-state map that still follows familiar partisan lines—but with softer margins than at the start of his second term.

With updated data now extending through June 15, the latest figures can be used to create a map that looks broadly familiar in shape, but weaker in substance, as support has eroded across much of the country.

The figures come from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters, taken from a rolling sample of more than 111,000 registered voters between January 20, 2025, and June 15, 2026.

Read More on Politics

The state-by-state map in this article has been updated to reflect the latest available figures as of today, offering a more current snapshot of where Trump’s standing sits following his birthday weekend.

Newsweek compared state results from January 20, 2025, Trump’s first day back in office, with the latest figures available. Net approval is calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval.

The updated data shows the same broad pattern as earlier over the weekend—strongest in Republican strongholds, deeply negative in Democratic states—but with incremental shifts reinforcing a longer-term trend of narrowing margins.

Key Points

• Trump was underwater in most states as he celebrated his birthday, with a net approval negative across much of the battleground map
• Updated June 15 data shows limited signs of reversal, with most battleground states remaining clearly negative
• Kentucky has seen the sharpest decline since the start of his second term, followed by Montana and Idaho
• Several states that began his term in positive territory, including Florida, Ohio and Texas, are now net negative
• Deep-red states still form Trump’s strongest base, but many of those margins have narrowed sharply since January 2025
• Younger voters, independents and women remain among the groups most negative on Trump in the latest national Civiqs tracker

Nationally, on his birthday, Trump’s approval stood at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. That left him clearly underwater overall, and the state map below shows the same pattern: strongest in Republican strongholds, deeply negative in blue states, and under pressure across much of the nation.

As of June 15, his strongest states remain Wyoming (+22) and North Dakota (+20), while some of his weakest include Hawaii (-58) and Vermont (-55), reflecting a map still defined by polarization but with thinner margins in many areas.

Why This Matters Now

The convergence of state-level erosion, weak national approval and softness among key voter groups suggest Trump enters the summer of 2026 in a more fragile political position than at the start of his second term.

With midterm elections approaching, even relatively small shifts in states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania—where margins have moved from positive to clearly negative—could have outsized consequences for control of Congress.

What’s Driving the Numbers

The national demographic breakdown helps explain why the state map looks the way it does.

Updated figures from June 15 show overall approval at 37 percent and disapproval at 58 percent, with little movement across key groups: among independents, 31 percent approve while 61 percent disapprove, while younger voters and postgraduates remain among the most negative cohorts.

Trump’s weakest numbers come among younger voters. Among adults aged 18 to 34, just 23 percent approve while 71 percent disapprove. Among those aged 35 to 49, approval is 30 percent, and disapproval is 63 percent.

Independents are also strongly negative, with 31 percent approving and 61 percent disapproving. Women disapprove by a 64-to-31 margin, while men are more divided at 51-to-43.

Education is another clear fault line. Among postgraduates, Trump’s approval is 25 percent, and disapproval is 71 percent. Among non-college graduates, the gap is narrower at 41 approve to 54 disapprove.

Those splits help explain why Trump’s standing remains so much stronger in parts of the Republican heartland than in more highly educated, urban and competitive states.

These demographic splits remain broadly unchanged in the latest June 15 update, with only marginal movement across age, gender and education groups—reinforcing a pattern that has held consistently throughout Trump’s second term rather than signaling any meaningful recovery.

Deep Red States Still Back Trump—But by Less

On his birthday, Trump’s strongest ratings still came from heavily Republican states, but many of those early advantages had narrowed.

Wyoming remained his best state, with a net approval rating of +25. North Dakota followed at +15, then South Dakota at +14 and West Virginia at +13. Alabama and Idaho each stood at +11, while Oklahoma was at +10.

That still left Trump above water across much of the red-state interior. But compared with the start of his second term, the erosion is striking. In January 2025, Wyoming opened at +47. Idaho began at +34. West Virginia was at +35. Those states are still positive now, but by much slimmer margins.

Kentucky offers an especially sharp example. Trump started his second term with a net approval rating of +23 there. On his birthday, it stood at -4. As of the latest June 15 data, it now sits around even at 0, wiping out the earlier advantage.

In several cases, the steepest declines are not coming in liberal strongholds, but in states that were once among Trump’s most reliable—pointing to erosion within his base rather than just entrenched opposition, a pattern echoed in national polling among rural voters and independents.

Swing States Have Moved Further Against Him

The most politically significant movement is in the states that tend to decide national elections.

On Trump's birthday, Florida sat at -13 net approval, down from +9 on January 20, 2025. Ohio dropped from +8 to -14. Nevada fell from an even 0 to -20. North Carolina went 0 to -15 and Pennsylvania moved from -3 to -17.

Arizona stood at -13, Wisconsin was at -16, Michigan at -21 and Georgia was at -20.

Those are not landslide deficits, but they point in the same direction: Trump is underwater across much of the battleground map, and in several cases, states that were once positive or even are now clearly negative.

The updated June 15 figures show limited signs of reversal, with most of these states remaining firmly in negative territory.

What Polling Released Since Trump’s Birthday Shows

The most significant development since Trump turned 80 is that new national polling has reinforced—rather than altered—the trajectory shown in the map.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll, released on Trump's birthday, conducted June 3–8 among 4,531 U.S. adults, found Trump’s approval rating among rural Americans has fallen to 50 percent, down from 60 percent in February 2025. Disapproval has risen to 48 percent, up from 34 percent earlier in his term.

The poll, conducted online, carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points for rural respondents and 2 percentage points for Americans overall.

It also highlights economic concerns as a key driver: just 31 percent of rural respondents approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living and the economy, while 61 percent disapprove.

That shift is notable given rural voters were one of Trump’s strongest constituencies in the 2024 election, underscoring how parts of his core coalition may be softening.

At the same time, a new NBC News poll conducted between May 29 and June 7 among 2,400 registered voters shows Democrats holding a narrow lead in the battle for control of Congress. The survey found 49 percent support Democratic control, compared with 44 percent for Republicans—a 5-point advantage—with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Among independents, the same poll shows a 12-point Democratic advantage, with 46 percent backing Democrats compared to 34 percent for Republicans.

Separate analysis from AP-NORC, aggregating 21 surveys conducted between July 2024 and April 2026 with a combined sample of 4,836 independents, suggests a longer-term structural shift. Support among independents has fallen from roughly four in 10 around the 2024 election to about one-quarter by spring 2026.

Current polling aggregates show Trump remaining clearly underwater nationally, with a New York Times estimate putting his approval at 39 percent and disapproval at 58 percent, while CNN’s poll of polls finds similar levels at 37 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval.

Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin tracker shows Trump's net approval rebounding slightly to around -18.7 after hitting a second-term low in late May, but still significantly weaker than at the same point in his first term.

Taken together, those findings align closely with the updated state map: not a sudden collapse, but a steady erosion across multiple voter groups and regions that is now visible in both national polling and state-level data.

The States Where Trump Has Fallen Most

Every state in the Civiqs tracker shows a lower net approval rating than on the day Trump began his second term. The biggest declines are concentrated not just in Democratic states, but in places that initially gave him some of his strongest backing.

That pattern remains intact in the latest data, with several red and red-leaning states showing some of the most pronounced drops from their early 2025 positions.

As of Trump's birthday, the sharpest drops were:

• Kentucky: +23 to -4, down 27 points
• Montana: +25 to +1, down 24 points
• Idaho: +34 to +11, down 23 points
• Florida: +9 to -13, down 22 points
• Ohio: +8 to -14, down 22 points
• West Virginia: +35 to +13, down 22 points
• Wyoming: +47 to +25, down 22 points
• Kansas: +23 to +2, down 21 points
• Nebraska: +18 to -3, down 21 points
• Oklahoma: +31 to +10, down 21 points
• Texas: +6 to -15, down 21 points
• Arkansas: +26 to +6, down 20 points
• Nevada: 0 to -20, down 20 points
• Tennessee: +25 to +5, down 20 points

...

Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Opposed

At the other end of the map, Trump’s weakest states remained overwhelmingly negative as he turned 80.

Hawaii posted the lowest net approval at -61, followed by Vermont at -56 and Maryland at -51. California and Massachusetts stood at -46. Oregon was at -42, Washington was at -41, and New York was at -40.

In these states, the story is not a dramatic collapse so much as entrenched opposition holding firm. Trump was already deeply underwater there at the start of his term, and he remains so now.

The Middle of the Map Has Tightened

A notable feature of the current map is how many states now cluster close to the line between positive and negative territory.

On Trump's birthday, Indiana and Montana were both just +1. Kansas was +2. Mississippi was exactly 0. Louisiana was -3 as was Nebraska. Missouri and Kentucky were both at -4.

That matters because it suggests a map that is less stable than it looks at first glance.

A Birthday Map That Looks Familiar—But Weaker

Trump’s political map still looks broadly recognizable. What has changed is the size of the margins.

At the start of his second term, Trump was comfortably positive across much of the red-state map and roughly competitive in several battlegrounds. Now, many of those same states are either narrowly positive, dead even or clearly negative.

The result is a map that preserves the same partisan shape, but with less room for error almost everywhere—and with updated June 15 data and new polling suggesting that trend is continuing rather than stabilizing.

What the White House Says

The White House has pointed to Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support, with spokesperson Davis Ingle arguing the result reflected a mandate from nearly 80 million voters.

In comments that the administration has repeated many times, Ingle said "the ultimate poll was November 5, 2024," adding that Trump is already delivering on a "popular and commonsense agenda" and that "this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."

Update: 06/16/26, 04:58 a.m. ET. This article has been updated with the latest polling data and context.

View 0 Comments

Request Reprint & Licensing

Submit Correction

View Editorial & AI Guidelines