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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is warning people in four states of potentially "catastrophic" flood impacts from an incoming atmospheric river expected to hit the region on Wednesday.
Newsweek has reached out to NOAA by email for comment.
Why It Matters
Atmospheric rivers are a "long, narrow region in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky—that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics," according to NOAA.
Read More on U.S.
The storms brought by atmospheric rivers are known for their heavy snow, heavy rain and strong winds. They more commonly affect the West Coast, particularly during the winter months.
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What To Know
Earlier this week, AccuWeather issued a forecast warning of an atmospheric river taking aim at the Midwest and parts of the South that could exceed the 500- to 1,000-year average for rainfall in the area.
Some areas are expecting four months' worth of rain over a five-day period this week, up to 18 inches in some places.
The incoming storm is a one-in-1,000-year event. An AccuWeather spokesperson told Newsweek that floods like this have a 0.1 percent chance of happening in any given year.
An experimental flood hazard outlook published by NOAA anticipates "catastrophic" flood impacts for four states: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Cities most at risk for flood impacts within these states include Dundee, Kentucky; Calhoun, Kentucky; Paradise, Kentucky; Martin, Tennessee; Golconda, Illinois; Shawneetown, Illinois; and Evansville, Indiana.
"There could be very significant impacts in the areas surrounding that as well," National Water Center service coordination hydrologist Jason Elliott told Newsweek.
Cities close to major rivers are particularly at risk.
"Considerable" flood risk stretches across Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, according to NOAA.
Flooding could quickly become dangerous and even life-threatening as the surge of moisture saturates area rivers, creeks and streams. Major rivers expecting significant water level rises include the Ohio, Wabash, White, St. Francis, Kentucky and Tennessee rivers, AccuWeather said.
Rainfall rates could exceed several inches per hour at times, which will contribute to rapid flash flooding potential for the impacted areas.
In addition to the heavy rain and flooding impacts, other weather threats are also expected. On Wednesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) warned of a high chance at a tornado outbreak from southwest of Pine Bluff, Arkansas, northeast through southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Cities included in the high-risk area are Memphis, Tennessee, and Jonesboro, Arkansas.
Some flood warnings issued across the region by NWS warned that evacuations could be required.
Elliott told Newsweek that significant flooding can begin as early as Wednesday night into early Thursday morning for western Tennessee and western Kentucky. By Friday, the area of greatest impact will shift to Arkansas, Missouri, southern Indiana and southern Illinois, before returning to western Tennessee and western Kentucky by Saturday.
Rivers could remain flooded into early next week.
What People Are Saying
NWS office in Memphis, Tennessee, in a flood watch: "A particularly dangerous situation will unfold along and north of Interstate 40. Generational rainfall amounts fall across much of the Mid-South Wednesday to Saturday, resulting in catastrophic river, areal, and flash flooding."
NWS office in Louisville, Kentucky: "This is expected to be a high-end event with life-threatening flooding. Major flash flooding and river flooding will be possible."
What Happens Next
Weather impacts from the atmospheric river will begin on Wednesday. They are expected to last through Saturday. Any flooding that occurs could be for a long duration, NOAA warned, as it will take time for flooded rivers to recede.
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