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By Andrew Stanton
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Janeese Lewis George, a Democratic socialist, is favored in polls and prediction markets to win the Democratic primary in the Washington, D.C., mayoral race on Tuesday, setting up a potential clash with President Donald Trump.
If Lewis George wins the primary, she would be heavily favored in the general election, as D.C. is among the most Democratic areas of the country, having given Trump less than 7 percent of its vote in the 2024 election. She would join New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as part of a new wave of Democratic socialist mayors leading a major American city.
Trump is an important factor in the race, as whoever wins will have to walk a fine line between standing up to him to appease the district’s Democratic base and not provoking his administration’s ire. Incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser has sought to establish a cordial relationship with the president, who last year said she had “become very popular" after backing his crackdown on crime in the capital. Trump has made several threats to the district’s home rule agreement throughout his second term over concerns about crime.
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What Polls Show About the Race
Independent polling gives Lewis George, who serves on the D.C. council, a lead over other candidates.
This year's mayoral primary will mark D.C.'s first time using a ranked-choice system, in which voters will rank candidates in order of preference. After all votes are counted, if no candidate reaches 50 percent, the one with the fewest votes will be eliminated, and their voters will be redistributed to their second choice. That continues until a candidate reaches a majority.
The Washington Post/George Mason University (May 27-June 1; 836 likely Democratic voters)
City Cast/TrueDot (May 12-17; 487 registered Democrats)
What Prediction Markets Show About the Race
Lewis George also leads prediction markets, having an 84 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and an 80 percent chance on Polymarket, as of Monday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
The Next Mamdani?
Mamdani’s victory last year over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa in New York City was a hallmark win for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), as he became among the group’s most prominent officeholders in the country, leading the nation’s largest city.
Democratic socialists are working to build off that momentum this year. Lewis George could deliver another win for the political left if she prevails and, like Mamdani, her relationship with the Trump administration will be closely watched.
Matthew Dallek, professor of political management at The George Washington University, told Newsweek that Lewis George represents a “more drastic break” for some voters, particularly those who want someone who will fight back against the Trump administration.
“[Lewis George] gives voters the chance to register disapproval and to say, in essence, they want the city to move in a new, more progressive, more left wing and more anti-Trump direction,” he said.
Many D.C. voters feel the city has been “overrun by a hostile federal government,” fueling a desire for a mayor who will “take Trump to the woodshed,” he said.
If elected, she could “pull a Mamdani” and be more pragmatic in dealing with Trump to stay out of his crosshairs, he added.
Mamdani has a cordial relationship with Trump, who has referred to him as a "nice guy" despite still being critical of the mayor's policies.
Additionally, Nithya Raman has advanced to the general election in the Los Angeles mayoral race to take on incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. Raman has also received backing from DSA and has drawn comparisons to Mamdani.
If Raman and Lewis George win in November, three of the largest cities in the country will be led by Democratic socialists.
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Lewis George Touts ‘Palpable’ Momentum
Lewis George told Newsweek that the “momentum on the ground is palpable” on Monday, just one day ahead of the primary, saying that people in D.C. are “ready for a leadership that puts people first.”
“But we are not taking anyone or anything for granted," she said. "This team is ready to run through the tape and deliver on real change for all of D.C.”
Sampath described the election as a “real choice” in a statement to Newsweek.
“We can keep electing the same career politicians who are part of the culture of corruption in DC, or we can choose new leadership with clean hands and the operational experience to fix the basics,” she said.
Solomon said that while polls and prediction markets are “interesting,” they are not “a vote.”
“One thing I’ve learned over the last several months is that there are a lot of voters who don’t spend their time talking to pollsters, political consultants or prediction markets," she said. "They’re busy living their lives and trying to make ends meet. Those voters matter just as much as the people who make political predictions for a living.”
Johnson’s campaign told Newsweek that Election Day is “the only poll that really counts.”
“All through this campaign, we’ve given District residents a clear choice: move Washington, D.C., forward with fresh leadership and new ideas, or remain stuck in the past with the same political establishment that’s been in charge for decades,” he said.
Goodweather, a veteran and real estate professional, told Newsweek that D.C. voters are looking for a new direction.
“While much of the media coverage has focused on two candidates, multiple polls have shown our campaign competing for third and fourth place in a crowded field,” he said.
Who Is Janeese Lewis George?
Lewis George serves as a member of the council of the District of Columbia. She earned a law degree from Howard University and has worked in Philadelphia as a prosecutor. She was first elected to the council in 2020 and is a self-described Democratic socialist who has been endorsed by the local chapter of the DSA.
If elected, she would become the first Democratic socialist mayor of Washington. She has focused on issues including expanding a childcare subsidy.
On Friday, the Office of Campaign Finance said Lewis George’s campaign “violated multiple provisions of District campaign finance law and the Fair Elections Program.”
“As a result, the Committee was assessed $16,000 in civil penalties. Additionally, Safe & Affordable DC, an independent expenditure committee, was found in violation of campaign finance law and was assessed a $4,000 civil penalty. The findings were issued in a Final Order dated June 12, 2026,” the office wrote in a statement.
In a statement to WTTG in Washington, Lewis George’s campaign said they would appeal the “reckless” order, saying it was "riddled with factual errors" and "violates procedural requirements that govern its investigations and other enforcement actions."
Trump's D.C. Threat
Trump last week threatened that the federal government could “take back” Washington, D.C., depending on the results of the election.
“Maybe we take back Washington and run it on a federal basis,” he said. “We won’t put up with it. We’re not going to lose our businesses. By the way, Washington now is a safe, beautiful place.”
President Richard Nixon signed the Home Rule Act in 1973, giving D.C.’s population the ability to elect their local leaders, but Congress still retains significant control over local affairs. A revocation of the agreement would require congressional approval. Article I, Section 8, Clause 17 of the Constitution gives Congress, not the president, local powers in D.C.
Trump has used similar rhetoric in the past about D.C. home rule.
“Washington, D.C., must be safe, clean, and beautiful for all Americans and, importantly, for the World to see," Trump wrote online in August 2025, after an employee of the Department of Government Efficiency was attacked during an attempted carjacking. "If D.C. doesn’t get its act together, and quickly, we will have no choice but to take Federal control of the City, and run this City how it should be run, and put criminals on notice that they’re not going to get away with it anymore.”
While Trump looms over the race, he's only one of the issues the next mayor will have to address. The district has faced years of fiscal challenges and public safety concerns that remain on the minds of many voters ahead of the primary.
Correction: 6/5/2026 11:23 a.m. ET: This article was corrected to reflect Janeese Lewis George's name in the headline.
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