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By Andrew Stanton and Sam Stevenson
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Maine Democrats vying to replace Graham Platner as their party’s nominee to face off against Republican Senator Susan Collins squared off in a high-stakes debate in Portland as prediction markets shifted sharply in response.
The debate brought together leading candidates competing to win over delegates ahead of the Democratic Party’s nominating convention later this month.
Maine's Senate race, one of the most competitive of the 2026 midterm elections, was upended after Democratic nominee Platner withdrew from the race earlier in July as he faced allegations of sexual assault. Platner denied the allegations but ended his campaign, opening up the primary for a new candidate by forcing Democrats into a compressed and unusual replacement process.
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State law allows the party to select a new nominee, and that process is now underway, with several prominent candidates, including former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah, all jumping into the race. Several other candidates are running but are less well known than those three, all three of whom unsuccessfully ran in the gubernatorial primary earlier this year.
On prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, Jackson’s lead surged to around 85 to 86 percent, while Bellows fell to roughly 6 to 7 percent and Shah rose to about 8.6 to 9.2 percent following Thursday night’s debate.
Those shifts matter because they suggest traders now see the race as narrowing quickly around a single frontrunner, potentially reshaping how delegates and campaigns approach the final stretch.
The debate offered candidates a chance to make their case to both Maine Democratic voters and the potential delegates who will decide the party’s new candidate during a convention in Bangor on July 25.
Debate Centers on Platner’s Legacy and Progressive Base
The debate, hosted by News Center Maine and aired at 7 p.m, saw a total of nine Democratic candidates invited to participate.
The first hour involved Bellows, Jackson, Shah and Jordan Wood, who placed third in the congressional primary for Maine’s Second District.
It opened with moderators asking candidates how they would build on Platner’s campaign, underscoring his continued influence despite his exit.
Jackson pointed to health care reform as the core of that agenda.
“Nothing else matters if you don’t have good health care,” he said, aligning himself with Platner’s focus on confronting the health care and pharmaceutical industries.
Shah emphasized ideological continuity but tied it to current events.
“There are a lot of areas where Graham’s policies and mine overlap,” Shah said, adding that “the need to finally abolish ICE” had become especially urgent following a recent fatal incident involving immigration enforcement.
Bellows, meanwhile, framed Platner’s appeal in systemic terms, arguing that he tapped into broader frustration with political and economic power structures.
“[Platner] energized a movement that was already there,” she said, describing a system she called deeply corrupted by wealthy interests.
Other candidates echoed similar themes. Dan Kleban called for ending immigration enforcement practices he described as brutal, while Ashley Webb and Elizabeth Dickerson focused on health care costs and U.S. foreign policy.
Odds Shift Suggests Consolidation Around Jackson
The immediate market reaction suggests that the debate did little to disrupt Jackson’s position—and may have strengthened it.
Before the debate, prediction markets already showed Jackson as the clear frontrunner, with roughly 79 percent odds compared to Bellows and Shah trailing in the low double digits or single digits.
By Friday, that lead had expanded further, with Jackson climbing into the mid‑80s.
That kind of movement is significant in prediction markets, where prices reflect crowd‑weighted expectations about real-world outcomes. A rise of several points in a short window typically signals rising consensus rather than volatility.
Bellows’ decline suggests traders see her pathway narrowing, while Shah’s modest rise indicates some reallocation of support rather than a broad reshaping of the race.
The rest of the field remained largely static at low single digits, reinforcing the perception that the contest is increasingly a three-way race—one that may now be effectively narrowing to one.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Bellows, Jackson, Shah and Wood via email for comment on Thursday.
'Seize the Moment'
The debate presented Democrats an opportunity to connect with voters and “ramp up energy” ahead of what will be a highly contested election, Ronald Schmidt, a professor of political science at the University of Southern Maine, told Newsweek.
*“*It’s so late in process for the Democratic Party to find itself without a candidate who has been selected already. It’s possible for these candidates to seize this moment, but it won’t be easy," he said.
Leading candidates could benefit from running for statewide office earlier this year as they already have mobilization and are in the “frame of mind of being committed to this race,” he said. They have visibility and have mobilized teams, but one central question they will face is whether support among Platner’s voters will transfer to them.
“What Platner stood to do is bring a lot of voters for the general election who ordinarily might not vote in a midterm election, when participation rates are usually lower than in an election with a president on the ballot. He got people excited about [the] process,” he said. Now, I imagine a majority of supporters are feeling let down and demobilized. The question is whether a new candidate can summon up that energy and get those people moving.”
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Debate Performance and Structure
Thursday’s debate featured a crowded stage, with top contenders appearing alongside lesser-known candidates.
But there was a lack of breakout moments, with candidates often overlapping on key issues and competing for the same progressive base.
And that dynamic may have benefited Jackson.
As a former Maine Senate president with deep ties to labor groups and rural voters, he was already positioned as the most direct successor to Platner’s coalition—a factor markets appear to have priced in as uncertainty declined.
Jackson’s background as a logger and longtime legislator has helped him build credibility with working-class voters, particularly in parts of the state that lean Republican.
What Polls Show
One poll of the field has been made public, revealing how Maine voters view the race. It was conducted by Blueprint Polling and Chism Strategies among 884 Mainers from July 9-10, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Jackson led the pack with 40 percent support, compared to Shah’s 23 percent and Bellows’ 14 percent. Wood, meanwhile, received 3 percent support in the poll. Kleban received a single point, while other candidates polled below a single percentage point. Ten percent were still undecided.
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Maine Democrats Issue Update on Process to Replace Graham Platner
Dan Shea, a professor of political science at Colby College, told Newsweek that Platner’s exit is not a major setback for Democrats and that the race “still will be” a “nail-biter.”
It can be argued that Democrats are better off now despite the fact that some Platner supporters are “down in the dumps,” as they will likely support the eventual nominee, and a new candidate will have less baggage, he said.
“The Collins camp would have hammered Platner's scandals relentlessly. That GOP playbook has changed. The Democratic candidate will have a truncated campaign, but the enthusiasm will be there. It was always going to be close race, and that's not changed,” he said.
Compressed Timeline Heightens Impact Of Momentum
Unlike a normal primary, where candidates have months to recover from weak performances, Maine Democrats face a compressed timeline.
Under state law, Democrats have until July 27 to select a new nominee now that Platner is formally off the ballot. Maine Democrats have emphasized the importance of an open, transparent process to select the new nominee and have chosen to use a nominating convention rather than a statewide caucus.
Over the coming days, all 16 Maine counties are set to hold special nomination meetings where participants will vote to elect delegates. Maine Democrats are able to register to be a delegate and participate in their county’s meeting, according to the state party.
On July 25, 601 delegates will vote to select the new nominee. Of those delegates, 101 are going to be members of the Democratic State Committee, while 500 will be appointed from each county. All registered Democrats, but not unenrolled voters, will be able to participate in their county meetings to pick delegates. Each county’s Democratic Party has worked to set up its own process for selecting delegates.
Shea said the convention “makes perfect sense” for Democrats.
“They needed to create something that was both broad-based and efficient. The best way to do that is with a large convention. It's a bit unusual, but this model was quite common back in the day. State nomination conventions often produced solid, electable candidates,” he said.
Can Democrats Defeat Susan Collins?
Collins has been a top target for Democrats in the midterms. She has won by wide margins in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan credentials, even though Maine is otherwise a reliably Democratic state in most elections.
But Democrats believe 2026 may be different. Her popularity took a hit after she voted to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who joined the ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, which for decades guaranteed abortion rights across the country. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating has fueled Democrats’ optimism that the midterms will be a strong year for their party.
Those factors lead Democrats to view Collins, representing a state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points, as particularly vulnerable.
The Immigration and Customs Enforcement-involved shooting of Joan Sebastian Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine, has also injected a new dynamic into the race. Many Maine voters have expressed outrage over the shooting, and Collins’ position on ICE and immigration enforcement has come under scrutiny.
Collins has called for an “independent investigation” into the shooting, saying that Mainers “deserve clear answers about the circumstances surrounding this shooting." She has said “it is clear ICE needs to improve its performance" but has pushed back against calls for the agency's abolition.
Democrats have criticized Collins over a vote to approve $70 billion for immigration enforcement earlier this year.
Schmidt noted that Collins' past support has not just been made up of Republicans, but also independents and Democrats in the state. A key question will be whether she can insulate herself from anger directed toward Trump in the shooting's aftermath or if this is what severs the relationship between her and parts of her base.
"She also, despite criticizing ICE, supported the legislation to reauthorize ICE, to give them a lot more money and to not really tie it to any accountability," Schmidt said. "That being the case, I can certainly see some of her Democratic voters, especially the Democratic voters, being angry with her because Mainers appear to be very upset with the killing of Mr. Guerrero."
Democrats are favored in prediction markets, holding a 65-66 percent chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket of flipping the Senate seat in November.
Democrats believe Collins is vulnerable, but that it remains a close race. She has also outperformed polling in the past, including in 2020, when she trailed in nearly all public surveys but won reelection against Democrat Sara Gideon with just over 50 percent of the vote.
Whoever wins the nomination will face challenges. They'll have to launch a new campaign from scratch to take on one of the most prolific overperformers in politics. Although leading candidates like Jackson, Shah and Bellows just ran for governor, they won't be able to use leftover campaign funds in their Senate races, according to OpenSecrets. They'll be tasked with uniting the party, including some Platner supporters who have stuck with him in recent days, ahead of November.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report view the race as a toss-up.
How Graham Platner’s Campaign Unraveled
Platner entered the race in 2025 and quickly became a progressive favorite, winning endorsements from politicians like independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. An oysterman and political newcomer, his campaign drew national attention.
But he had faced scrutiny over several scandals throughout the campaign.
Early controversies centered around past Reddit posts. In one, Platner said he "became older and became a communist." In another, in response to a person who posted that white people "aren't as racist or stupid as Trump thinks," he replied: "Living in white rural America, I’m afraid to tell you they actually are."
He told Politico last year: "I made dumb jokes and picked fights. But of course I’m not a socialist. I’m a small business owner, a Marine Corps veteran and a retired s*** poster."
He also faced controversy over the revelation that he had a tattoo resembling the Totenkopf, or "death’s head," a symbol adopted by the Nazi SS. He apologized and previously told Newsweek: "I absolutely would not have gone through life having this on my chest if I knew that—and to insinuate that I did is disgusting. I am already planning to get this removed."
In June, The New York Times published allegations about his behavior in past romantic relationships.
One former girlfriend of Platner's, Lyndsey Fifield, a conservative who has worked for Republican campaigns, alleged that Platner had engaged in physically threatening behavior during their relationship over a decade ago. She alleged that Platner twisted her arm behind her back during an argument, shoved her into a bedroom and blocked her from exiting.
Fifield told the outlet that Platner "never hit me, he never punched me." The Times said it could not independently corroborate the incidents alleged by Fifield.
Platner strongly denied those accusations, saying allegations involving physicality are "simply not true" and describing them as politically motivated. The Times interviewed six of Platner's former girlfriends, three of whom said they supported his candidacy.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that his wife informed campaign aides during vetting that he had sent sexually explicit text messages to several women. The disclosure was intended to ensure the information did not catch the campaign off guard. Platner has dismissed the reports as "gossip" and has acknowledged strains in his marriage, though he framed them as resolved.
But it was the latest allegations, reported by Politico, that sunk his campaign. Maine resident Jenny Racicot alleged that Platner entered her home while intoxicated in late 2021 and forced her to have sex despite her repeated objections. She said the two had previously been involved in an on-and-off relationship and that the encounter was not consensual.
Platner rejected the sexual assault allegation in an email to Newsweek, saying: "These allegations are troubling, serious, and false. Any accusation of non-consensual behavior is categorically untrue.”
Maine Is Must-Win Senate Race for Democrats
The Maine Senate race won’t just be watched by Mainers, as it has critical national implications. Republicans currently hold a 52-47 majority in the Senate, and Maine is a top opportunity, as Collins is the only Republican in a state that Harris won. There is one vacancy in South Carolina after Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's death, and Republicans are viewed as the favorites to hold that seat.
The Senate seat in North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis is retiring, is another prime chance to flip a seat for Democrats. Backing Trump by 3 points, it is the only GOP-held seat in a state Trump won by single digits. Democrats are defending seats in Trump-won swing states Georgia and Michigan.
Even if Democrats win all four of those critical seats, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so Democrats are eyeing more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as possible flips. All backed Trump by double digits, but polls point to potentially close races.
Collins holding on in November would complicate Democrats’ path to a majority. In that scenario, they would have to flip three of those double-digit Trump state seats to reach 51 seats.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.
Update: 17/07/26, 05:31 a.m. ET. This article has been updated with additional information.
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