House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, of New York, speaks during a news conference in Washington, D.C. on May 5, 2025.

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Andrew Stanton

By Andrew Stanton

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Democrats outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris by double digits in special elections across the country in 2025.

Democratic National Committee Deputy Executive Director Libby Schneider told Newsweek that the party should “feel buoyed by the strong results we’ve seen up and down the ballot all year long.”

Why It Matters

Off-year special elections can be a gauge of the mood of the electorate between the presidential election and midterms set for next November, when Democrats are hoping to reclaim control of the House and Senate. The results suggest heightened Democratic enthusiasm, and polls for next year give the party an edge. They also served as a test of President Donald Trump’s popularity, as he supported Republican candidates in many of these races.

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What To Know

Democrats began 2025 in a tough spot, still grappling with Harris’ loss in the last year’s presidential race. The party was divided about the best path forward as well as what contributed to Trump’s victory. Despite those woes, special elections this year yielded strong results for Democrats.

Democrats’ performances indicate “dissatisfaction with the incumbent party and leadership,” Meena Bose, executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek.

“Economic concerns, for affordability generally and particularly for health care, as well as the longest government shutdown in history, have raised significant public concerns about the Republican Party’s ability to understand people’s financial concerns and respond,” she said.

It’s difficult to say how these concerns will influence the midterms, she said. Democrats have a “strong chance” of winning control in the House, as Republicans have only a narrow majority as things stand, and the party in power typically loses seats in the midterms.

Still, Democrats will need a “clear, unified national message” and strong campaigns to capitalize on turnout, Bose said.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a news conference in Washington on May 5, 2025.

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Florida House Special Elections

Democrats outperformed Harris’ margin by double digits in two Florida House special elections this year. Although Republicans still won each race, Democrats put up stronger-than-expected showings.

In Florida’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis defeated Democrat Gay Valimont by about 14.6 percentage points, much narrower than Trump’s 37-point victory last November.

In Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Republican Randy Fine defeated Democrat Josh Weil by about 14 points—a notable change from Trump’s 30-point victory in 2024. This race was viewed as being potentially competitive and drew national attention—and spending.

Virginia’s 11th Congressional District

Democrat James Walkinshaw overperformed in the special election to fill the seat vacated by the late Representative Gerry Connolly. He won the race in the Northern Virginia district by more than 50 points against Republican Stewart Whitson. Harris won the seat by 34 points last November.

Arizona’s 7th Congressional District

In Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, a seat that drifted rightward last November as Trump made inroads with Hispanic voters, Democrat Adelita Grijalva easily won the race to replace her father, the late Representative Raul Grijalva.

She won her race by nearly 40 points, compared to Harris’ 22-point victory last November.

Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District

The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to replace former Representative Mark Green, who left Congress for a private-sector job, was viewed as a competitive race by both parties. Democrats were hopeful that Aftyn Behn could defeat Republican Matt Van Epps, and the race drew investment from both parties.

Van Epps, who received the support of Trump, ended up winning, but Behn still made the race closer than expected. He won by just under nine points, compared to Trump’s 22-point victory last year.

Miami Mayoral Race

Democrat Eileen Higgins this month defeated Republican Emilio Gonzalez by nearly 20 points in the Miami mayoral election. She secured just over 59 percent of the vote, while Gonzalez received just under 41 percent.

That’s a strong improvement for Democrats from 2024, when Harris won Miami by less than a percentage point. Miami was once a Democratic stronghold but has shifted right as Republicans have made gains among Hispanic voters, especially Cuban voters who are prominent in Miami.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Election

Although Wisconsin’s Supreme Court elections are technically nonpartisan, liberal-aligned Susan Crawford won by double digits against the conservative-aligned Brad Schimel in a state that Democrats lost at the presidential level last November.

Crawford won by just about 10 percentage points; Trump carried Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in last year’s election.

State Legislative Elections

Democrats outperformed Harris in the following state legislative races by double digits, according to The Downballot:

What People Are Saying

Democratic National Committee Deputy Executive Director Libby Schneider, in a statement to Newsweek: "With another 40%+ overperformance by a Democrat from the top of the 2024 ticket last week in Kentucky, and as Democrats enter the midterm year, our party should feel buoyed by the strong results we’ve seen up and down the ballot all year long. Across red, purple, and blue states, Democrats have gotten off the mat and proven that when you organize everywhere, you can win anywhere — in every part of the country."

CNN data analyst Harry Enten, this month after the Miami mayoral race: “It is just the latest shift that we’re seeing. That is what I think is so important going on here. We’ve seen in special elections. We saw it in Virginia gov. We saw it in New Jersey gov. We’ve seen it across the political map, where over and over and over again, the baseline from 2024, Democrats are consistently outperforming it.”

Red Eagle Politics, a conservative political commentary account with more than 110,000 followers on X: “Democrats do better in off-year elections now. Cool, we get it. The thing is, Dems were massively overperforming in countless specials every year since Obama left office, almost ALL went back to baseline in the Midterm or Presidential year.”

What Happens Next

Whether or not these special-election overperformances translate to a strong midterm showing will be seen next November. Polls are giving Democrats an advantage on the generic ballot, but the results of the midterms could be shaped by factors such as how the economy fares over the coming months.

Update 12/24/25 11:45 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.

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