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By Andrew Stanton
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Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is leading early polls in South Carolina's U.S. Senate race ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, though Democrats hope to make the traditionally conservative state competitive in November.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews for comment.
Why It Matters
South Carolina is not ordinarily viewed as a particularly competitive state, as it backed President Donald Trump by 18 points against former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. But Trump’s declining approval rating gives Democrats hope that they can compete in more conservative states to win control of the Senate in November.
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Graham is also facing several challengers in the Republican primary, including Paul Dans, who authored Project 2025, and businessman Mark Lynch. Graham’s support for the Iran war has fueled criticism from both his right and left in recent days, including after he expressed support for the U.S. seizing Iran's Kharg Island during a Fox News Sunday interview this weekend.
Lindsey Graham’s Chances of Losing Primary
The latest polls of the GOP primary show Graham with a lead over his Republican rivals. A Quantus Insights poll from last year showed Graham receiving 58 percent support, compared to Dans’ 7 percent and Lynch’s 15 percent. It surveyed 600 registered voters from October 1-4, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
A Big Data Poll survey showed Graham with 46 percent support, compared to Dans’ 22 percent and Lynch’s 4 percent. It surveyed 827 Republican primary voters from September 26-29, 2025.
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A Rasmussen Reports poll provided to Newsweek by the Lynch campaign showed Graham leading with 41 percent on the initial ballot, followed by Lynch’s 21 percent and Dans’ 11 percent. On an informed ballot, Lynch led with 34 percent, followed by Graham at 23 percent and Dans’ 11 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from March 11-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
"Recent polling shows Lindsey Graham under 50 percent and losing ground as voters learn the truth, while Mark Lynch’s campaign continues to gain momentum," a spokesperson for Lynch's campaign told Newsweek. "Mark Lynch is the America First candidate, focused on putting South Carolinians first while Graham talks about sending our sons and daughters into another war in the Middle East and serving the same Washington interests that have failed this state for decades."
Dans said in a statement to Newsweek: “It’s very easy for Lindsey Graham to demand the sons and daughters of South Carolina go fight wars in the Middle East because he has no children of his own to chip in to those excursions.”
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Lindsey Graham’s Chances of Losing to Democrats
Polls similarly give Graham a lead over Annie Andrews, the leading candidate in the race who previously ran for SC-01 in 2022. An Impact Research poll showed Graham with a 5-point lead over Andrews (47 percent to 42 percent). The Democratic firm polled 700 likely voters from February 25 to March 2, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Another Democratic-leaning pollster, Public Policy Polling, showed Graham up by six points (42 percent to 36 percent). It surveyed 704 voters from November 21-22, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in March 2025: “Senator Lindsey Graham is working incredibly hard for the Great People of South Carolina, a State I love and WON BIG in 2016, 2020, and 2024!
"Lindsey has been a wonderful friend to me, and has always been there when I needed him. As the Chair of the Senate Budget Committee, Lindsey is fighting tirelessly to Grow the Economy, Lower Taxes, and Eliminate Government Waste. Lindsey is also relentlessly focused on helping us Secure the Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Strongly Support our Great Military/Vets, Promote American Energy DOMINANCE, Defend our always under siege Second Amendment, and ensure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH.”
Impact Research wrote in its report: “Dr. Annie Andrews is a strong candidate with a proven ability to fundraise, the ability to communicate on paid media, and a tested team who has won before in South Carolina. On top of that, polling shows that her story and bio are appealing to swing voters. Any race with an incumbent polling this low and tight is an opportunity for Democrats – and now Graham is on the ballot in a potential wave year without Trump on the ballot to boost GOP turnout.”
What Happens Next
South Carolina’s primary is set for June 9, 2026. It is not expected to be competitive in the general election. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Safe Republican.
Update 3/23/26, 5:14 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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