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By Dan Gooding
Associate News Editor
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A growing Latino voting population with looser ties to either political party could translate to surprising shifts in voting habits in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, experts say.
Over the last eight years, the number of Latinos eligible to vote in the United States rose by nine million, faster than any demographic. Hispanics counted for a staggering 91% of the country's population growth since the pandemic, according to a recent Brookings Institute analysis of Census data.
Hispanics now make up around 13.8% of the voting population in the U.S. overall. In Arizona, that number is closer to 25%, and in Texas it's around 30%.
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"Forty percent of the gain in the eligible voter population nationally is due to Latinos, so they are going to count, especially in place like Nevada and Arizona," William Frey, who authored the Brookings study, told Newsweek.
Frey said that more young Hispanic adults are becoming eligible to vote, especially those who are college educated, which could further scramble voting habits in November.
Turnout, however, remains a problem for both parties, with younger people generally not voting as often as the older population, regardless of their ethnicities.
"That is going to be the issue in a lot of these places: are you going to get Latinos to turn out? And how are they going to vote?" Frey said, pointing to states with growing young populations as ones which could see a change over the past few elections.
"Florida, everybody now says it's a red state, but Florida used to be kind of a purple state, so it could make a difference there."
Immigration shows differences in Latino voting habits
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A survey by the Pew Research Center (PRC) in July, conducted in the frantic period between President Biden and Donald Trump's debate and the attempted assassination of the former president, showed that 39% of Latinos had confidence in Biden on the topic of immigration, compared to 45% for Trump.
"One piece of context that might be useful is that in 2022 we found that Latino Republicans differed substantially from other Republicans on immigration," Jens Manuel Krogstad, senior writer at PRC, told Newsweek.
"Latino Republicans were less likely than other Republicans to prioritize things like increased security at the U.S.-Mexico border and increased deportation, and this really highlighted the relatively weak ties that Hispanic Republicans and Hispanics overall have to their political parties."
Krogstad said these looser ties make predicting outcomes for 2024's election difficult.
"It suggests that some Latinos may be open to voting for either of the major party candidates, regardless of who they may have last voted for," he said.
Frey said that border security does play a factor for some Latino voters, depending on their heritage.
"Some Latinos think they came in the right way and other people shouldn't be coming in illegally, but that's a small piece of the Latino vote," Frey said.
"When you see somebody like Trump and his campaign coming out against immigrants and being so strident about it, I think they take offense to that."
Frey said that if Kamala Harris and the Democrats can speak directly to the communities seemingly discredited by the GOP, that could potentially bring them enough votes to make a difference in some of the swing states that will determine the election.
Changing demographics across the country
Frey said that Harris becoming the Democratic candidate — and the first female of color presidential candidate — could also have an impact when it comes to Latina voters and other women of color.
"Already we know women vote more than men, they turn out more than men, they vote more Democratic more than men do," he explained, saying that Harris could bring more votes from Latina women than Biden could have for the Democrats.
The PRC survey showed no clear winners when it came to other policy areas while Biden was still in the running.
When it comes to the rest of the U.S. population, a recent study of Census data by the Brookings Institution showed that the white population has been in decline in recent years, while people of color are driving changes in the make-up of communities across the country.
Between 2020 and 2023, the Latino population in the U.S. increased by 942,105 from immigration, with another 2.2 million coming from new births outnumbering deaths.
In states including Texas, Florida and North Carolina, Hispanics made up much of the population growth, while in big cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco and New York, there have been corresponding large drops in white populations.
The changes are partly down to a higher number of deaths than births, but also due to domestic migration to other cities or states that accelerated during the pandemic, all of which could shift margins when it comes to November's election.
Krogstad noted that while Latino voters largely supported Democrats for decades, 2016 and 2020 saw those voters shift rightward.
"I think like most everyone else, we will be keeping an eye on how the change of the Democratic Party ticket will have an impact not only on Latino voters, but American voters overall," he said.
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