Climate Prediction Center
By Joe Edwards
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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued updated outlooks for the latter half of November on Thursday, as La Niña is forecast to continue into winter.
Why It Matters
The CPC’s outlooks provide a glimpse of what the United States can expect in terms of both temperatures and precipitation in the coming weeks.
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What To Know
According to the CPC’s map for the November 19-23 period, the Western U.S. can expect below-average temperatures, while the central and eastern parts of the country may experience above-normal values.
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Southern California, southern Nevada, and parts of Arizona were among the states most likely to experience cooler-than-normal temperatures, the map showed, while on the other hand, southeastern Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle, and much of Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana were most favored for above-average temperatures.
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As for precipitation during this period, Maine and most of Florida are expected to receive near-normal precipitation, while northeast Texas, southern Missouri, as well as much of Arkansas and Oklahoma, are most likely to see above-normal levels.
For November 21-27, similar temperature trends are expected, with below-normal temperatures favored in the West and above-normal temperatures expected for the central and eastern U.S.
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In terms of precipitation, the CPC map indicated that parts of the Midwest and Southwest were among the regions most likely to experience above-average levels.
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La Niña is the cool phase of a natural, recurring climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The other phase is El Niño, the warm counterpart.
La Niña and El Niño can have a global impact on weather, wildfires and ecosystems.
The CPC previously said that La Niña conditions are expected to remain weak, thus less likely to result in the typical impacts, which during the winter months include drier conditions for more southern regions and wetter conditions for parts of the Midwest and Northwest.
CPC meteorologist Scott Handel told Newsweek: "We are currently in a La Niña Advisory, and the increased precipitation that we have seen thus far this month across the Pacific Northwest and the dryness across the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic are consistent (on average) with what has occurred during previous La Niña this time of year.
"However, other factors, such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), can and often do have a heavier influence. The MJO will likely usher in a large-scale pattern change, later this month and into December, including a potential significant cold air outbreak across the West and Northern Plains," Handel said.
"The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains.
It affects rainfall, atmospheric circulation, and surface temperatures across the tropics and subtropics. While the MJO doesn't cause El Niño or La Niña, NOAA notes that it can influence how quickly these events develop and how strong they become.
What People Are Saying
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains: “Using the climatology period 1991–2020, the 6–10 day and 8–14 day outlooks depict whether the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions during the noted time frame. The monthly and seasonal outlooks depict the probability (percent chance) of above-or below-normal conditions.
“The colored shading on the map indicates the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the category indicated. The darker the shading, the greater is the level of confidence. For temperature outlooks, blue hues indicate ‘below-normal’ and orange-red hues indicate ‘above normal.’ For precipitation outlooks, brown hues indicate ‘below-normal’ and green hues indicate ‘above normal.’"
The National Weather Service said in a post on X on Thursday: “The latest ENSO update is out and the La Niña Advisory remains in effect. La Niña is expected to remain weak therefore would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts.”
The CPC said on X on Thursday: “La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61 percent chance).”
What Happens Next
CPC outlooks are updated regularly.
Update 11/14/2025, 12:23 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional comments.
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