By Joe Edwards
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La Niña conditions have been detected across the tropical Pacific Ocean and are forecast to continue from December 2025 to February 2026, the National Weather Service (NWS) said on Thursday.
Why It Matters
La Niña is the cool phase of a natural, recurring climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The other phase is El Niño, which is the warm counterpart.
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La Niña and its El Niño counterpart can have global impact on weather, wildfires and ecosystems.
What To Know
Although La Niña is expected to remain weak, the NWS said it could still influence the upcoming winter season.
A map shared by the agency illustrated that when La Niña is present during winter, it can lead to colder conditions in northern parts of the country, but warmer conditions for portions of the East Coast.
More southern regions of the country can see drier conditions, while parts of the Pacific Northwest, as well as the Midwest, could experience a wetter winter, according to the map.
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It should be noted that while these represent a typical La Niña winter pattern, the NWS said a weaker La Niña means these impacts are less likely. However, the agency said to expect a warmer weather pattern this winter.
The most recent outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) showed that southern Florida, as well as parts of the southwest and far northeast are favored to see above-average temperatures from December to February. The northwest was favored to see below-average temperatures.
As for precipitation, southwestern and southeastern portions of the U.S. are most likely to see below average-levels, while parts of Montana, Wyoming, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio could see above-average precipitation.
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Brad Panovich wrote in a post on X on Thursday: “We are officially in La Niña and will stay there through the upcoming winter season. On average, this means warm and dry winters for us, but not always. Also of note, Winter severe weather is more likely, especially late winter and early Spring.”
The NWS CPC said on X on Thursday: “La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025-February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).”
What Happens Next?
“A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions, is most likely in the January to March 2026 timeframe," the NWS said.
Meteorological winter begins December 1.
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