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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass remains the narrow favorite to win the June 2 mayoral primary, with prediction markets putting her chances at around 54 percent, as viral and controversial AI-driven campaign videos reshape the race.
Those same markets show reality TV personality Spencer Pratt in second place at roughly 28–33 percent, with City Councilmember Nithya Raman trailing in the low teens, pointing to a fragmented contest still defined by uncertainty just weeks before voting begins. LA uses a nonpartisan “top two” system, with all candidates competing in a June primary to reach a head‑to‑head runoff in November unless one candidate wins an outright majority.
The odds underscore a campaign increasingly shaped not just by polling but by a fast‑moving digital information battle, with AI‑generated ads and viral clips playing a growing role in shaping perceptions. Pratt has leaned heavily into that strategy in recent weeks, repeatedly reposting Batman and Star Wars‑themed AI clips that have drawn millions of views online.
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And the dynamic was underscored on May 13, when Pratt shared an AI‑generated attack video on social media and suggested it had originated from Bass’s campaign. Posting on X, Pratt wrote: “Karen Bass got FOMO [fear of missing out]. These AI attack ads are crazy desperate.”
Bass’s campaign has denied any involvement. In response to an inquiry from Newsweek, a spokesperson said: “We haven’t done any AI videos at all. This looks like more AI slop from Spencer Pratt.” Newsweek reached out to Pratt for comment via email.
With turnout thresholds and a likely runoff looming, the race will determine which two candidates advance in a contest where even late swings could prove decisive.
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Why It Matters
Prediction markets still favor Bass, but the surge of viral AI content has introduced a volatile, largely untested dynamic into an already fluid race.
The contest has evolved into one of the most unpredictable mayoral races in recent Los Angeles history, combining weak incumbency support with a large undecided bloc. Crucially, the campaign is also emerging as an early test case for how artificial intelligence and viral social media content can shape modern U.S. elections.
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What To Know
Prediction markets and polling broadly point to the same dynamic: Bass leads but lacks a commanding share, while Pratt has emerged as the clearest challenger, and Raman remains competitive.
On Polymarket, traders give Bass about a 54 percent chance of winning, compared with roughly 28 percent for Pratt and 13 percent for Raman.
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Yes 54% · No 47%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Kalshi markets show a similar ordering, reinforcing the view of a race with a front-runner but no settled outcome.
Polling data reinforces that interpretation. A UCLA Luskin survey conducted in March found Bass leading on 25 percent, with Pratt on 11 percent and Raman on 9 percent—but with a striking 40 percent of voters undecided.
A separate UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll also showed Bass at 25 percent, Raman at 17 percent, and Pratt at 14 percent, with a large share of voters still uncommitted.
That combination—low ceilings for every candidate and a large undecided bloc—points to a genuinely fluid contest where late campaign dynamics can disproportionately shape the final outcome.
Viral AI Ads Reshape the Campaign
What distinguishes this race is not just its closeness, but the medium through which it is being fought. Pratt has leaned into a barrage of viral, AI-driven videos that have transformed the campaign's tone and reach. One Batman-style ad depicting Los Angeles as a dystopian city catapulted him into the national spotlight.
The videos, often created independently and widely shared on social platforms, including by Pratt himself, depict political opponents as exaggerated villains and portray Pratt as a heroic figure, blurring the line between political messaging and entertainment.
The scale of engagement is significant. Some clips have attracted millions of views, with one viral ad topping 4 million views and others circulating widely on X and other platforms.
At the same time, U.S. intelligence officials, including former Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, have warned that increasingly realistic AI‑generated “deepfakes” could be used to influence elections and confuse voters, CBS reported.
A Digital-First Battleground
The shift reflects a broader transformation in campaign strategy. What once centered on television advertising has increasingly moved to social media platforms, where candidates compete for attention in a crowded digital marketplace.
Pratt’s background in entertainment appears to have given him a natural advantage in this environment, allowing him to generate viral momentum that more traditional campaigns struggle to match.
But virality does not automatically translate into votes. Social media audiences are often national or even global, meaning many viewers engaging with viral content may not be eligible voters in Los Angeles.
Even so, the ability to dominate the conversation can reshape perceptions of viability—an important factor in a race where many voters are still making up their minds.
A Race Still In Flux
Taken together, the data point to a simple but important conclusion: this remains an unsettled contest.
Bass’s position as the favorite stems more from fragmentation among her challengers than from overwhelming strength. Pratt’s momentum, meanwhile, appears tied as much to media attention and digital reach as to firm electoral support. Raman, though trailing in market odds, remains competitive in polling and could still consolidate progressive voters late in the game.
The race offers a case study in modern campaign dynamics: weak incumbency, a high share of undecided voters, and the growing influence of algorithm-driven communication.
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What Happens Next
With fewer than three weeks until voting begins, the key question is no longer just who is ahead—but whether the next viral moment could be enough to change the trajectory of the race.
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