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By David Brennan
Diplomatic Correspondent
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Russia's new offensive into Ukraine's frontier Kharkiv Oblast appears to be establishing a "buffer zone" for Moscow's troops in the northeastern region, as Kyiv scrambles to respond to the operation and rushes delayed Western military aid to the front.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Monday evening that Russian units "continued to make tactically significant advances north and northeast of Kharkiv City on May 13 and currently appear to be prioritizing the rapid establishment of a 'buffer zone' along the international border over setting conditions for deeper penetrations into northern Kharkiv Oblast." A map published by the ISW showed the Russian cross-border push stretched across around 40 miles, from the frontier settlements of Hoptivka, north of Kharkiv City, to Vovchansk, to the northeast of the city.
The fighting is taking place less than 15 miles from Kharkiv, which is Ukraine's second city and, before the full-scale invasion, was home to more than 1.4 million people. Kharkiv has been under regular bombardment since February 2022, and is a prime Russian strategic goal, given its logistical and political significance. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
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The creation of a buffer zone along the Kharkiv border has also often been proposed within Russia, particularly as a response to cross-frontier raids by Kyiv-aligned Russian fighters.
Russia's Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov, for example, said this week that the military needs to "move the military threat away from the borders of the Russian Federation. No compromises when it comes to our national security are unacceptable."
The destruction of several bridges across the Vovcha River inside Ukraine supports the buffer-zone theory, the ISW wrote. "It is unclear why Russian forces would largely target bridges they would need to cross and ensure stable logistics across the Vovcha River for offensive operations deeper into northern Kharkiv Oblast, so these strikes suggest that Russian forces may be prioritizing immediate gains in an unfortified area of northern Ukraine."
Moscow's units have deployed armor in the area, ISW said, though seemingly not as part of an effort to drive toward Kharkiv. "The deployment of armored assets in this area suggests that Russian forces are seeking to make rapid gains," the think tank added, "but they do not appear to be setting conditions at this time for such gains to be on the southern side of the Vovcha River deeper into northern Kharkiv Oblast."
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Rapid Russian gains in Kharkiv have prompted frustration in Ukraine, which, for months, has been focused on attritional defensive combat in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The reentry of Russian forces into the northeast of the country has raised questions as to the quality of Ukrainian defenses there. The Ukrainian army has said there is a multilayered network of defenses in the area capable of stymieing the Russian assault.
"The current pace of Russian advances on this axis is not necessarily indicative of the further offensive capabilities of the Russian forces conducting the offensive operations, although Russia reportedly retains considerable reserves available to exploit initial successes on this axis," the ISW wrote on Monday.
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