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By Mandy Taheri
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Democratic Senate nominee in Texas James Talarico holds a narrow 3-point lead over Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton in a new poll released less than two months out from Election Day.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey of 625 registered Texas voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, so the narrow gap represents a dead heat in the key race that Democrats hope gets them over the hump in their long pursuit of capturing a statewide election in the firmly red state.
The close gap comes as Paxton, the state's current attorney general, has seen Talarico gain momentum with leads in a number of polls as he has surged to become the favorite among prediction markets and political handicappers.
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Democrats have a narrow path to reclaim control of the upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and stealing a longtime GOP seat from a state that backed President Donald Trump by more than 13 points in 2024 would be a huge gain.
Democrats also must defend their current seats—including in two states Trump won in 2024—and flip four others. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party historically loses seats.
Millions of dollars have already been spent on the Texas race, and both campaigns are ramping up outreach as they battle for undecided and independent voters in the final weeks of the campaign.
"Democrats are running competitive Senate races in Ohio and Texas, a real indication that Republicans nationwide face significant headwinds. Being competitive and winning, though, are different concepts," Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns, told Newsweek in a Wednesday email.
Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary at the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC), told Newsweek on Wednesday, “Summer polling has flattered Democrats in reliably red states before, only to be proven wrong in November.”
She continued, “James Talarico enabled Joe Biden’s border policies, and voters won’t forget the price hikes and fentanyl deaths that followed.”
Newsweek has reached out to Paxton and Talarico for comment via email on Wednesday.
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Texas Senate Race
Texas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1988 and has backed Republican presidential nominees in every election since 1980, but Democrats think 2026 offers one of their best opportunities in years to compete statewide. Trump carried Texas by 13.7 percentage points in 2024, defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris 56 percent to around 42.5 percent.
The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation's longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped the electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O'Rourke's narrow 2018 Senate loss to Ted Cruz.
Describing the Senate race and Texas' political landscape, Klink added, "Talarico has real appeal to the national media and some Texas Democrats, but no Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Bentsen wouldn't even be considered a Democrat today."
Polls show Paxton, endorsed by Trump and Talarico, who has served as a state representative since 2018, holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup follows Paxton's defeat of longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary in late May.
Republicans descended on Dallas last week for the party’s unprecedented midterm convention. The convention is part of a plan to mobilize the GOP base ahead of November.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the Texas race to be a toss-up.
Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico: What the Polls Show
The new poll found Talarico leading 46 percent to Paxton’s 43 percent. About 8 percent of participants were undecided, and 3 percent backed libertarian candidate Ted Brown.
The survey showed a gender divide, with Talarico leading women voters 52 percent to 36 percent and Paxton leading men 51 percent to 39 percent.
Voter preferences are divided across age groups, with each candidate holding advantages among different generations. Talarico led voters ages 18 to 34 by 51 percent to 37 percent and voters ages 50 to 64 by 49 percent to 41 percent, while Paxton led voters ages 35 to 49 by 47 percent to 42 percent and voters 65 and older by 46 percent to 45 percent.
Regional support varied significantly across the state. Paxton's strongest support was concentrated in East Texas, where he led 58 percent to 38 percent, while Talarico ran strongest in Central Texas, posting a 57 percent to 31 percent advantage.
Other polls also show a tight race. A new SoCal Strategies poll shows Talarico ahead with 50 percent of the vote compared to Paxton's 45 percent. The figures mark a shift from the pollster's June survey, which had Paxton leading 49 percent to 47 percent. The survey was conducted between September 12 and September 13 among 649 likely voters.
That poll shows Talarico polling better than Beto O'Rourke was at this point in the 2018 campaign, when he went up against Senator Ted Cruz. At that point in the 2018 campaign, Cruz led O'Rourke by about 3 points, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls. Cruz would go on to beat O'Rourke by about 2.6 percentage points in the election.
A recent YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted between August 27 and September 4 found Talarico leading by 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll of 1,167 likely voters from August 24-26 found Talarico and Paxton locked in a statistical dead heat. The poll found Talarico leading with 44 percent support to Paxton's 43.4 percent, while 12.6 percent of respondents remained undecided. When leaners were included, the race was effectively tied, with both candidates receiving 50 percent support.
While the race remains highly competitive, prediction markets have recently tilted toward Talarico. On Wednesday, Kalshi gave the Democrat a 54 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket placed his odds at 56 percent.
Scrutiny Surrounding the Candidates
Republicans have cast Talarico as a progressive out of step with Texas voters, pointing to his policy positions, lifestyle, and comments on Christianity, while Democrats have focused on Paxton’s legal and political controversies, arguing he is unethical and corrupt.
Paxton’s past, including criminal charges and allegations of infidelity, has been brought up on the national stage, both by the Democrats and earlier this year by his primary challenger, Cornyn.
He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 on 20 articles against him, including allegations of abuse of office and bribery, though he was later acquitted by the Texas Senate. Paxton has maintained that the proceedings were politically motivated and has denied wrongdoing**.**
In 2020, a group of people who worked with Paxton reported him to the FBI, alleging he abused his office to prop up Paul, a political donor and real estate investor. Some of the workers resigned, and others were fired, leading to a suit under the Texas Whistleblower Act. Years later, in 2025, a Travis County district court judge concluded the aides were improperly fired and awarded them $6.6 million. Paxton initially filed an appeal but then dropped it after announcing his Senate campaign.
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In 2015, Paxton was indicted on felony securities fraud charges, which, had he been convicted, would have carried decades in prison. Earlier, he was accused of misleading investors.
John Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy who previously served in the House Republican leadership, told Newsweek in an email, "Paxton is well-known figure in Texas, having won statewide several times. Love him or hate him, he has shown an ability to close and win."
Dave Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, previously told Newsweek, "Ken Paxton’s scandal-ridden past seems to be a serious liability."
Talarico has faced criticism from Republicans about faith and religion, while opponents have also targeted aspects of his personal background as they seek to portray him as out of step with Texas voters.
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During a 2021 speech in the Texas legislature, Talarico said, "God is nonbinary," in pushback against transgender legislation backed by Republicans. The GOP has seized on the comment and plastered it in their advertising, casting him as too progressive.
The Democrat routinely touts his Christian faith as the driving force behind his politics. He's been an outspoken advocate for LGBTQ+ rights in Texas.
Talarico acknowledged that the comment was "provocative," but told Newsweek in a September 2025 interview that he was just citing what the Bible teaches.
"I don't think, theologically speaking, any of my fellow believers would disagree that God is beyond gender. I recognized how I phrased it, probably raised some eyebrows, but the idea that in Christ, in God, there is neither male nor female, that is not coming from me," he said.
What Happens Next
With fewer than 50 days remaining until Election Day, the closely watched Senate race is expected to draw millions more in spending as both campaigns battle for support. Texans must register to vote by October 5. Early voting will be held from October 19 through October 30, with Election Day on November 3.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Geoffrey Rowland, Sam Wilson, Gray R. Thomas.
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