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By Andrew Stanton
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Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton surged past Democratic state Representative James Talarico in a new poll of the state's U.S. Senate race, viewed as one of the most competitive in this year's midterm elections.
Democrats are hopeful about Talarico’s chances of flipping the seat held by Republican Senator John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton, as President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating fuels hopes of a blue wave. Still, Texas is an uphill battle for Democrats, as it backed Trump by 14 points in 2024. The new poll from the Texas Politics Project found that Paxton’s position is bolstered compared to the spring but that the race remains competitive.
Newsweek reached out to the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.
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Ken Paxton Takes the Lead Over James Talarico
Paxton held a single-point lead in the new poll with 43 percent support compared to Talarico’s 42 percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 3 percent said they would vote for someone else. Ten percent were still undecided about who they would vote for in November.
That marks an uptick in support for Paxton, whose polling stood at 34 percent to Talarico's 42 percent in an April survey by the pollster.
His surge appears to be driven by his own party. In April, ahead of a contentious runoff against Cornyn, 63 percent of Republicans said they would support Paxton in November. By June, that number had risen to 84 percent.
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Still, Talarico gained among other voting groups. In April, 82 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of independents said they planned to vote for Talarico—that rose to 88 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents in the new poll.
Independents were most likely to be unsure how they’ll vote, with percent saying they haven’t thought enough about the race to have an opinion.
The poll was conducted from June 5-12 among 1,251 registered Texas voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
GOP Moving on From ‘Vicious’ Primary
Joshua Blank, who runs the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin, told Newsweek that the primary is “in the rearview mirror” and Texas Republicans are more focused on Talarico than their “misgivings” about Paxton.
“As vicious as the primary campaign may have been, Ken Paxton has never lost a race as a Texas politician, and that means that most Republican voters in Texas have not only cast a ballot for Paxton but have done so many times before,” he said.
A Talarico victory will require historic Democratic turnout, a lag in GOP enthusiasm and “decisive” support among independents, suburban voters and Latino voters, he said.
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“In Texas, the current focus, largely driven by the state's majority, Republican Party, is shifting attention away from the divisiveness of the primary and on to the general election," he said. "In practice, given the challenging electoral environment likely facing Republicans, the GOP is currently testing a number of messages this summer in an effort to figure out how best to communicate with voters in the fall.”
Paxton is tasked with uniting Republicans, including those who voted for Cornyn and are more skeptical of his campaign, before the general election. Struggling to do so could give Talarico a better chance at flipping the seat.
Talarico has sought to appeal to Cornyn’s supporters.
“I want to thank Senator John Cornyn for his years representing our state. We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service. To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign,” he wrote on X after the May 26 GOP primary runoff.
How This Poll Compares to Previous Surveys of the Texas Senate Race
A SoCal Strategies poll released this week also showed a tight race, with Paxton at 49 percent and Talarico at 47 percent. Four percent were still undecided. It surveyed 800 likely voters on June 21.
An earlier poll by Reconnaissance Market Research and the Siena Research Institute showed Talarico in the lead at 47 percent to Paxton’s 44 percent. It polled 807 likely voters June 1-4, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters June 3-4, showed Paxton up 2 points at 45 percent to Talarico’s 43 percent. An earlier Texas Public Opinion Research Poll showed Talarico with 47 percent and Paxton with 44 percent. It had surveyed 1,670 likely voters May 27-28.
A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Paxton and Talarico tied with 45 percent support. It surveyed 1,223 likely voters April 22-May 6.
Why Democrats Think Talarico Has a Path in Texas
Democrats have long hoped to flip Texas, believing that blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston could move the state toward purple status.
At the presidential level, that played out during the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to less than 6 in 2020. Democrats were able to make some races close in Texas, including the 2018 Senate race between Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
But 2024 saw Democrats lose ground in Texas as Republicans outperformed among Hispanic and Latino voters. Trump won the state by about 14 points, delivering a blow to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the state.
The 2026 midterm election is fueling Democratic hopes that Texas could again be within reach.
Trump’s approval rating has slipped nationally amid economic concerns around the cost of living and the Iran war, which sent gas prices surging over recent months.
Some Democrats believe Talarico may be able to reach more independents and moderate Republicans with his focus on his Christian faith on the campaign trail—though Republicans have sought to highlight some of his past remarks about God being nonbinary and Talarico not eating meat to cast him as out of touch with Texans. He responded to claims that he is vegan by saying: "I've been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton's first indictment."
Ken Paxton Scandals Explained
Paxton’s victory in the runoff against Cornyn, a longtime incumbent, has alarmed some Republicans who believe his status as the nominee could make the race unnecessarily competitive.
Paxton won after receiving Trump's endorsement and support from Texas Republicans’ conservative base. But some in the party fear he could alienate more moderate voters, giving Democrats an opening.
Concerns stem from Paxton's 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over articles alleging bribery and abuse of public trust. The investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton's former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct. Paxton denied any wrongdoing.
Paxton was acquitted in the Texas Senate. He has described the impeachment as a “weaponization of our political system" that was "designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment.”
How Popular Is Donald Trump in Texas?
The new poll from the Texas Politics Project found that Trump is underwater in Texas, with 51 percent of respondents disapproving of his job performance compared to 42 percent who approve.
The Siena poll found that 48 percent of Texans approve of Trump, while 52 percent disapprove. The Quantus poll found that 51 percent of Texans disapprove of Trump to 47 percent who approve.
When Did Texas Last Elect a Democratic Senator?
Texans haven't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection for a fourth term in 1988. Democrats have made some races close, including the 2018 contest between Cruz (51 percent) and O’Rourke (48 percent).
What Happens Next
Forecasters give Republicans an advantage, with the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Lean Republican.
Overall, the Senate map presents Democrats an uphill battle.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority. North Carolina is crucial to Democrats’ bid to retake control in the midterms as it’s the only GOP-held seat Trump won by single digits up for grabs in November.
Democrats view the seat in Maine, held by Republican Senator Susan Collins, as another top target, as it is a Democratic-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024. Democrats are also on the defensive in two Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.
But even if Democrats win all four of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so they are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. Those states are more conservative, but polls suggest races could be close.
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