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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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Democratic candidate James Talarico faces a competitive path to defeating Republican Ken Paxton who secured the GOP nomination in a primary runoff for Texas’ U.S. Senate race.
On Tuesday night, state Attorney General Paxton—who secured the backing of President Donald Trump, who last week called him "a MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas"—defeated incumbent John Cornyn, a four-term senator, with 62 percent of the vote at the time the race was called by the Associated Press.
The November contest is expected to test whether Democrats can break through in a state they have not carried for statewide office in the 21s century, and recent polls and prediction markets suggest Talarico is within striking distance of flipping Texas.
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Talarico, a Presbyterian pastor and state lawmaker, secured the Democratic nomination in March, defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett.
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Polling and Betting Odds
Surveys have suggested a competitive race, with no clear frontrunner emerging across multiple polls, though the contest has shifted over time and the most recent poll dates from back in early May.
More recently, betting odds suggest a different outcome. According to betting platform Polymarket, as of Tuesday evening, there was a 54 percent chance that the Republican Party would win the Senate election, while there was a 47 percent chance that the Democratic Party will be victorious.
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Yes 54% · No 47%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
A poll of 1,223 registered Texas voters conducted between April 22 and May 6 predicted a dead heat between the candidates, with both receiving 45 percent of the vote. This poll was conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.
In April, several polls suggested Talarico had gained an edge, as Republicans remained divided by their primary contest. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted between April 17 and 20, showed Talarico leading Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent.
Another April poll of 1,200 registered voters, from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas found Talarico ahead of Paxton by 8 points (42 percent to 34 percent) in a general election matchup.
Early polling had painted the race as evenly matched. In January, an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,165 Texas voters found that, in a hypothetical matchup, Paxton and Talarico were tied at 45.6 percent.
Taken together, the polling suggests a race that has evolved from an early dead heat to a period of Democratic strength, before tightening again as Republican voters coalesce behind a single candidate.
Paxton's Runoff Win
Paxton's win is another victory for Trump, whose endorsements as of late have largely been successful. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky lost in the GOP primary to Trump’s handpicked candidate Ed Gallrein while incumbent Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy was also defeated by Trump-endorsed candidates.
In the March 3 primary, neither Paxton nor Cornyn reached the 50 percent threshold needed to advance to the general election, requiring a runoff. Neither had Trump's backing...
It would come in May.
Trump announced he was backing Paxton in the runoff, writing on May 19 on Truth Social: "Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate...He is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN. Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.”
Trump, having said Cornyn was a good man in his Paxton endorsement message a week ago, took to Truth Social again Sunday night to criticize the senator.
“Ken’s opponent was VERY disloyal to me, as President, and didn’t fight hard enough for the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT - VOTER I.D., PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP, NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS (with exceptions for Military, Illness, Disability, or Travel!),” Trump wrote of Cornyn.
“What more needs to be said??? Vote for Ken Paxton on Tuesday, HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!”
Democrats Hope Texas Could Be Emerging Battleground
Democrats have long hoped that Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994.
Talarico is a member of the Texas House of Representatives, where he has served since 2018. Prior to entering politics, Talarico worked as a middle school teacher and nonprofit director.
He was among the Texas Democrats who fled the state in 2025 to deny quorum in a bid to stop Republicans' redistricting efforts aimed at creating more GOP-leaning congressional districts.
He defeated Representative Jasmine Crockett in the March primary.
Talarico told Newsweek in an interview in September 2025 that he doesn't "see politics as left versus right," but instead "as top versus bottom."
"I see the billionaires who are trying to divide us with their social media algorithms, with their cable news networks, with the politicians who are fighting on our screens. So I'm trying to bridge those divides," he said.
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