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By Andrew Stanton
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton appears to be inching closer to formally announcing a challenge to longtime GOP Senator John Cornyn in what could become a tense Republican primary race next year.
Newsweek reached out to Cornyn and Paxton for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Texas for decades has been one of the reliably conservative states in the country. Although it has shifted slightly toward Democrats in recent presidential races, President Donald Trump easily carried it in 2024. His easy victory called into question whether the state will go Blue anytime soon.
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But as Democrats face a potentially difficult 2026 Senate map, Texas is one of a few double-digit Trump states they are hoping to make competitive next year.
Republicans could have a competitive primary to decide who faces off against the Democrats. Although Cornyn is a well-established incumbent who has performed well in past elections, some conservatives are leaning toward Paxton, who has cast himself as more in-line with Trump. If both choose to run, the primary could be competitive, expensive and divisive in a state Republicans are hoping to keep off the table.
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What To Know
Paxton addressed the possibility of a Senate bid in an interview published Wednesday in The New York Times, which reported he "tiptoed close" to declaring himself a candidate.
"I just think there's a lot of things that you could do at the federal level. Trump can use the help and have a senator that actually is supportive and not critical," the attorney general told the newspaper.
Polls suggest that if Paxton, chooses to issue the Senate challenge, he would start as the favorite. Cornyn, for his part, has confirmed he plans to seek reelection next year.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted with Lake Research Partners, found that more Republicans are leaning toward Paxton. Many respondents, however, said they were undecided.
Twenty-seven percent of respondents said they planned to cast their primary ballot for Cornyn, while 38 percent said they would plan to support Paxton. An additional 16 percent said they were undecided about how they'd vote, while 7 percent said they planned to vote for another candidate.
Eight percent said they "would not vote in that race," while 4 percent did not say who would get their vote.
The poll surveyed 700 registered voters in March 2025.
A University of Houston poll, conducted among 1,200 Texans from January 13 to January 21, showed that a slightly larger number of primary voters would "definitely consider voting for" Paxton over Cornyn.
It found that 31 percent of respondents said they would definitely consider voting for Cornyn, while 33 percent would definitely consider voting for Paxton.
On the other hand, 42 percent said they "might" consider voting for Cornyn, compared to 33 percent who "might" consider voting for Paxton. Only 15 percent said they would "never" vote for Cornyn, while 19 percent said they would "never" vote for Paxton.
It's unclear who may run on the Democratic side. Former Representative Colin Allred, the Democrat who unsuccessfully challenged Senator Ted Cruz last year, has told The Dallas Morning News he is considering running again.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as "Solid Republican," though Sabato's Crystal Ball views it as "Likely Republican."
What Happens Next
TPOR in a press release: "John Cornyn is vulnerable: Nearly three times as many voters prefer to replace the Republican senator (36%) as those who want to reelect him (13%), while 27% would consider an alternative. In a hypothetical Republican primary, Ken Paxton holds an 11-point lead over Cornyn."
Cornyn to KSAT: "There's a reason why I've been elected by large margins every time I've run for office, and that's because the 31 million people in Texas know me. And they know how I do my job, and I do my best to be responsive to their needs. But look, elections are all about competition. I'm not particularly concerned about that. If the time comes that this gentleman, or anybody else decides to run, we'll be ready for that, and we'll take our case to the voters."
Paxton, responding to Cornyn's reelection announcement on X: "Are you delusional? You've constantly turned your back on Texans and President Trump, including trying to stop his campaign in 2024 and saying his 'time has passed him by.' Texans won't believe your lies or forget how you've consistently worked to undermine the President."
What Happens Next
Texas' Senate primary isn't until next year. Although Paxton has hinted at a potential run, he hasn't made a formal campaign announcement, and it's unclear when or if he may do so. More polls released over the coming year or so may also reveal how competitive a race between the Texas Republican heavyweights could become.
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